Closing spread
SF -1
Total
42
Model margin
+4.8est.
SF perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- 49ers
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.083EPA / play+0.084
- 41.2%Success rate46.1%
- -0.094EPA / dropback+0.171
- -0.065EPA / rush-0.021
- 7.4%Explosive rate10.7%
- -2.69CPOE-1.99
- 40.2%Third-down rate45.1%
- 60.5%Red-zone TD rate60.5%
- 1.57Points / drive2.20
- 2.3%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SF lead 31–24–1 since 1999
Meetings average 43.4 points. SF are 31-23-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Rams
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 32/48 | 254 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darrell Henderson | 7 | 27 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Cam Akers | 8 | 13 | 1.6 | 0 |
| Brandon Powell | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Matthew Stafford | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cooper Kupp | 14 | 19 | 122 | 0 |
| Tyler Higbee | 10 | 14 | 73 | 0 |
| Ben Skowronek | 2 | 3 | 33 | 0 |
| Darrell Henderson | 3 | 4 | 12 | 0 |
| Allen Robinson | 2 | 6 | 7 | 0 |
| Kendall Blanton | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Cam Akers | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 16/27 | 239 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Wilson | 18 | 74 | 4.1 | 1 |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | 6 | 7 | 115 | 1 |
| Brandon Aiyuk | 4 | 4 | 37 | 0 |
| George Kittle | 2 | 4 | 24 | 0 |
| Jauan Jennings | 2 | 4 | 22 | 0 |
| Ray-Ray McCloud | 1 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| Ross Dwelley | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Charlie Woerner | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
2.09%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.8%
Expected total
44.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.40
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-1.33
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.77