2022 · Week 4 · Division

Final

Rams

Los Angeles

QB Matthew Stafford

9·24

49ers

San Francisco

QB Jimmy Garoppolo

Levi's Stadium · outdoors · grass

Closing spread

SF -1

Total

42

Model margin

+4.8est.

SF perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Rams

49ers

Win probability

  • 49ers
  • Rams

How each play moved the game.

49ers winsRams wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ramsedge map49ers
  • -0.083EPA / play+0.084
  • 41.2%Success rate46.1%
  • -0.094EPA / dropback+0.171
  • -0.065EPA / rush-0.021
  • 7.4%Explosive rate10.7%
  • -2.69CPOE-1.99
  • 40.2%Third-down rate45.1%
  • 60.5%Red-zone TD rate60.5%
  • 1.57Points / drive2.20
  • 2.3%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SF lead 31–24–1 since 1999

Meetings average 43.4 points. SF are 31-23-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W1SF @ LA27–7SF
2025 · W10LA @ SF42–26RAMS
2025 · W5SF @ LA26–23SF
2024 · W15LA @ SF12–6RAMS
2024 · W3SF @ LA24–27RAMS
2023 · W18LA @ SF21–20RAMS
2023 · W2SF @ LA30–23SF
2022 · W8SF @ LA31–14SF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultLA–SF
LAQ1 15:001359Field goal3–0
SFQ1 6:48875Touchdown3–7
LAQ1 2:463-7Punt3–7
SFQ1 1:27631Punt3–7
LAQ2 12:4031Punt3–7
SFQ2 11:5130Punt3–7
LAQ2 11:30949Field goal6–7
SFQ2 6:22675Touchdown6–14
LAQ2 2:4660Punt6–14
SFQ2 0:3146Turnover on downs6–14
SFQ3 15:00526Punt6–14
LAQ3 12:081670Field goal9–14
SFQ3 4:25872Field goal9–17
LAQ4 14:5330Punt9–17
SFQ4 13:19741Missed field goal9–17
LAQ4 8:38523Opp touchdown9–24
LAQ4 6:271344Turnover9–24
SFQ4 1:4931Punt9–24
LAQ4 0:45318End of half9–24

Box score

Individual performances

Rams

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matthew Stafford32/4825401

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Darrell Henderson7273.90
Cam Akers8131.60
Brandon Powell11111.00
Matthew Stafford263.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Cooper Kupp14191220
Tyler Higbee1014730
Ben Skowronek23330
Darrell Henderson34120
Allen Robinson2670
Kendall Blanton1170
Cam Akers0100

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jimmy Garoppolo16/2723910

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jeff Wilson18744.11
Jimmy Garoppolo133.00
Deebo Samuel Sr.221.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Deebo Samuel Sr.671151
Brandon Aiyuk44370
George Kittle24240
Jauan Jennings24220
Ray-Ray McCloud1360
Ross Dwelley0100
Charlie Woerner0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +13.5%6.5%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%3.0%

Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Rams.

Half-point at risk

2.09%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

61.8%

Expected total

44.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.40
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-1.33
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.77