2022 · Week 4 · Division

Final

Titans

Tennessee

QB Ryan Tannehill

24·17

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Matt Ryan

Lucas Oil Stadium · open · fieldturf

Closing spread

IND -4.5

Total

43

Model margin

+1.6est.

IND perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Titans

Colts

Win probability

  • Colts
  • Titans

How each play moved the game.

Colts winsTitans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Titansedge mapColts
  • -0.066EPA / play-0.154
  • 41.2%Success rate40.3%
  • -0.034EPA / dropback-0.139
  • -0.104EPA / rush-0.181
  • 8.9%Explosive rate7.4%
  • -0.94CPOE-1.42
  • 37.1%Third-down rate33.3%
  • 67.5%Red-zone TD rate45.5%
  • 1.46Points / drive1.33
  • 2.0%Turnover rate2.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 34–16 since 1999

Meetings average 46.3 points. IND are 29-21 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6TEN @ IND26–20TEN
2025 · W8TEN @ IND14–38IND
2025 · W3IND @ TEN41–20IND
2024 · W16TEN @ IND30–38IND
2024 · W6IND @ TEN20–17IND
2023 · W13IND @ TEN31–28IND
2023 · W5TEN @ IND16–23IND
2022 · W7IND @ TEN10–19TEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTEN–IND
INDQ1 15:00118Turnover0–0
TENQ1 10:47532Touchdown7–0
INDQ1 8:0032Punt7–0
TENQ1 7:05675Touchdown14–0
INDQ1 3:461071Field goal14–3
TENQ2 13:25831Field goal17–3
INDQ2 9:3910Turnover17–3
TENQ2 9:34533Touchdown24–3
INDQ2 7:401085Touchdown24–10
TENQ2 2:13944End of half24–10
TENQ3 15:003-1Punt24–10
INDQ3 12:35862Touchdown24–17
TENQ3 7:2633Punt24–17
INDQ3 5:361049Punt24–17
TENQ4 14:5338Punt24–17
INDQ4 12:56755Turnover24–17
TENQ4 8:4068Punt24–17
INDQ4 4:46533Missed field goal24–17
TENQ4 1:58313End of half24–17

Box score

Individual performances

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Tannehill17/2113720

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Derrick Henry221145.21
Ryan Tannehill591.80
Treylon Burks144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Chig Okonkwo33381
Derrick Henry35330
Robert Woods44301
Dontrell Hilliard44180
Treylon Burks23140
Austin Hooper1140
Kyle Philips0100

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Ryan27/3735621

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jonathan Taylor20422.10
Nyheim Hines100.00
Matt Ryan2-4-2.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mo Alie-Cox66852
Alec Pierce46800
Kylen Granson44620
Parris Campbell44430
Jelani Woods11330
Michael Pittman36310
Ashton Dulin23180
Nyheim Hines2230
Jonathan Taylor1310
Mike Strachan0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +4.54.2%2.8%7.1%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Titans.

Half-point at risk

1.91%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.2%

Expected total

42.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.16
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.55