Closing spread
IND -4.5
Total
43
Model margin
+1.6est.
IND perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Colts
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.066EPA / play-0.154
- 41.2%Success rate40.3%
- -0.034EPA / dropback-0.139
- -0.104EPA / rush-0.181
- 8.9%Explosive rate7.4%
- -0.94CPOE-1.42
- 37.1%Third-down rate33.3%
- 67.5%Red-zone TD rate45.5%
- 1.46Points / drive1.33
- 2.0%Turnover rate2.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 34–15 since 1999
IND have won 6 straight. Meetings average 46.3 points. IND are 29-20 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Tannehill | 17/21 | 137 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Henry | 22 | 114 | 5.2 | 1 |
| Ryan Tannehill | 5 | 9 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Treylon Burks | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chig Okonkwo | 3 | 3 | 38 | 1 |
| Derrick Henry | 3 | 5 | 33 | 0 |
| Robert Woods | 4 | 4 | 30 | 1 |
| Dontrell Hilliard | 4 | 4 | 18 | 0 |
| Treylon Burks | 2 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Austin Hooper | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Kyle Philips | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 27/37 | 356 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Taylor | 20 | 42 | 2.1 | 0 |
| Nyheim Hines | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Matt Ryan | 2 | -4 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mo Alie-Cox | 6 | 6 | 85 | 2 |
| Alec Pierce | 4 | 6 | 80 | 0 |
| Kylen Granson | 4 | 4 | 62 | 0 |
| Parris Campbell | 4 | 4 | 43 | 0 |
| Jelani Woods | 1 | 1 | 33 | 0 |
| Michael Pittman | 3 | 6 | 31 | 0 |
| Ashton Dulin | 2 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| Nyheim Hines | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| Jonathan Taylor | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| Mike Strachan | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
1.91%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.2%
Expected total
42.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.16
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.55