2022 · Week 4 · Division
Final
AT&T Stadium · closed · matrixturf
Closing spread
DAL -3
Total
40.5
Model margin
+0.2est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
7.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Cowboys
- Commanders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.066EPA / play+0.031
- 40.9%Success rate45.2%
- -0.045EPA / dropback+0.082
- -0.092EPA / rush-0.031
- 8.0%Explosive rate9.6%
- -1.41CPOE-1.95
- 34.9%Third-down rate46.2%
- 61.4%Red-zone TD rate71.3%
- 1.48Points / drive2.26
- 2.0%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DAL lead 38–16 since 1999
DAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. DAL are 31-23 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Wentz | 25/42 | 170 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Gibson | 13 | 49 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Jonathan Williams | 5 | 48 | 9.6 | 0 |
| J.D. McKissic | 8 | 40 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Carson Wentz | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jahan Dotson | 3 | 4 | 43 | 1 |
| Curtis Samuel | 4 | 7 | 38 | 0 |
| Logan Thomas | 5 | 6 | 19 | 0 |
| John Bates | 4 | 6 | 19 | 0 |
| J.D. McKissic | 3 | 4 | 16 | 0 |
| Terry McLaurin | 2 | 6 | 15 | 0 |
| Antonio Gibson | 3 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Dyami Brown | 1 | 4 | 6 | 0 |
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cooper Rush | 15/27 | 223 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ezekiel Elliott | 19 | 49 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Cooper Rush | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Tony Pollard | 8 | 6 | 0.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CeeDee Lamb | 6 | 8 | 97 | 1 |
| Noah Brown | 3 | 6 | 61 | 0 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 2 | 2 | 32 | 0 |
| Michael Gallup | 2 | 3 | 24 | 1 |
| Jake Ferguson | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Tony Pollard | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 |
| Dalton Schultz | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Commanders.
Half-point at risk
7.38%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.7%
Expected total
42.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.12
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-3.51
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+0.24