2022 · Week 4 · Division

Final

Commanders

Washington

QB Carson Wentz

10·25

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Cooper Rush

AT&T Stadium · closed · matrixturf

Closing spread

DAL -3

Total

40.5

Model margin

+0.2est.

DAL perspective

Push chance

7.4%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Commanders

Cowboys

Win probability

  • Cowboys
  • Commanders

How each play moved the game.

Cowboys winsCommanders wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Commandersedge mapCowboys
  • -0.066EPA / play+0.031
  • 40.9%Success rate45.2%
  • -0.045EPA / dropback+0.082
  • -0.092EPA / rush-0.031
  • 8.0%Explosive rate9.6%
  • -1.41CPOE-1.95
  • 34.9%Third-down rate46.2%
  • 61.4%Red-zone TD rate71.3%
  • 1.48Points / drive2.26
  • 2.0%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DAL lead 39–16 since 1999

DAL have won 3 straight. Meetings average 44.6 points. DAL are 32-23 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2WAS @ DAL20–37DAL
2025 · W17DAL @ WAS30–23DAL
2025 · W7WAS @ DAL22–44DAL
2024 · W18WAS @ DAL23–19WAS
2024 · W12DAL @ WAS34–26DAL
2023 · W18DAL @ WAS38–10DAL
2023 · W12WAS @ DAL10–45DAL
2022 · W18DAL @ WAS6–26WAS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultWAS–DAL
DALQ1 15:00640Field goal0–3
WASQ1 11:34718Punt0–3
DALQ1 7:0131Punt0–3
WASQ1 4:5845Punt0–3
DALQ1 2:44660Field goal0–6
WASQ2 14:56742Punt0–6
DALQ2 11:3331Punt0–6
WASQ2 10:40765Touchdown7–6
DALQ2 7:051675Touchdown7–12
WASQ2 1:04412Turnover7–12
DALQ2 0:1013End of half7–12
WASQ3 15:00613Punt7–12
DALQ3 11:225-9Punt7–12
WASQ3 9:414-2Punt7–12
DALQ3 7:48457Field goal7–15
WASQ3 4:56767Field goal10–15
DALQ3 1:27437Touchdown10–22
WASQ4 14:54422Punt10–22
DALQ4 12:353-1Punt10–22
WASQ4 11:2189Turnover on downs10–22
DALQ4 7:5747Punt10–22
WASQ4 6:0832Turnover10–22
DALQ4 5:2939Field goal10–25
WASQ4 3:51619Turnover on downs10–25
DALQ4 2:393-1Punt10–25
WASQ4 1:53725End of half10–25

Box score

Individual performances

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Carson Wentz25/4217012

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Antonio Gibson13493.80
Jonathan Williams5489.60
J.D. McKissic8405.00
Carson Wentz155.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jahan Dotson34431
Curtis Samuel47380
Logan Thomas56190
John Bates46190
J.D. McKissic34160
Terry McLaurin26150
Antonio Gibson33140
Dyami Brown1460

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Cooper Rush15/2722320

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ezekiel Elliott19492.60
Cooper Rush273.50
Tony Pollard860.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
CeeDee Lamb68971
Noah Brown36610
Ezekiel Elliott22320
Michael Gallup23241
Jake Ferguson1170
Tony Pollard1320
Dalton Schultz0300

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +32.7%4.4%2.9%7.3%7.4%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Commanders.

Half-point at risk

7.38%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

49.7%

Expected total

42.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.12
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-3.51
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+0.24