Closing spread
MIN -10
Total
44
Model margin
+5.9est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
3.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Vikings
- Bears
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.039EPA / play+0.004
- 41.1%Success rate45.8%
- -0.070EPA / dropback+0.070
- -0.004EPA / rush-0.130
- 10.4%Explosive rate8.0%
- -4.05CPOE+1.66
- 41.0%Third-down rate40.7%
- 60.7%Red-zone TD rate65.2%
- 1.78Points / drive2.04
- 2.3%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 28–26 since 1999
Meetings average 41.8 points. MIN are 23-30-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Fields | 15/21 | 208 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Fields | 8 | 47 | 5.9 | 0 |
| David Montgomery | 12 | 20 | 1.7 | 1 |
| Khalil Herbert | 4 | 11 | 2.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Montgomery | 4 | 4 | 62 | 0 |
| Darnell Mooney | 2 | 5 | 52 | 0 |
| Cole Kmet | 4 | 4 | 45 | 0 |
| Equanimeous St. Brown | 2 | 2 | 24 | 0 |
| Ihmir Smith-Marsette | 1 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Velus Jones Jr. | 1 | 1 | 9 | 1 |
| Ryan Griffin | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Dante Pettis | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | 32/41 | 296 | 1 | 1 |
| Justin Jefferson | 1/1 | 23 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dalvin Cook | 18 | 94 | 5.2 | 2 |
| Alexander Mattison | 9 | 19 | 2.1 | 0 |
| Kirk Cousins | 4 | 4 | 1.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Jefferson | 12 | 13 | 154 | 0 |
| Irv Smith | 4 | 5 | 42 | 0 |
| K.J. Osborn | 5 | 5 | 41 | 0 |
| Adam Thielen | 4 | 7 | 27 | 0 |
| Dalvin Cook | 2 | 2 | 27 | 0 |
| Alexander Mattison | 3 | 4 | 21 | 0 |
| Johnny Mundt | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Jalen Reagor | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Bears.
Half-point at risk
3.32%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
64.6%
Expected total
45.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.17
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.87