2022 · Week 5 · Division

Final

Bears

Chicago

QB Justin Fields

22·29

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Kirk Cousins

U.S. Bank Stadium · dome · sportturf

Closing spread

MIN -10

Total

44

Model margin

+5.9est.

MIN perspective

Push chance

3.3%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bears

Vikings

Win probability

  • Vikings
  • Bears

How each play moved the game.

Vikings winsBears wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bearsedge mapVikings
  • -0.039EPA / play+0.004
  • 41.1%Success rate45.8%
  • -0.070EPA / dropback+0.070
  • -0.004EPA / rush-0.130
  • 10.4%Explosive rate8.0%
  • -4.05CPOE+1.66
  • 41.0%Third-down rate40.7%
  • 60.7%Red-zone TD rate65.2%
  • 1.78Points / drive2.04
  • 2.3%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIN lead 29–26 since 1999

Meetings average 41.3 points. MIN are 24-30-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2MIN @ CHI9–3MIN
2025 · W11CHI @ MIN19–17CHI
2025 · W1MIN @ CHI27–24MIN
2024 · W15CHI @ MIN12–30MIN
2024 · W12MIN @ CHI30–27MIN
2023 · W12CHI @ MIN12–10CHI
2023 · W6MIN @ CHI19–13MIN
2022 · W18MIN @ CHI29–13MIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCHI–MIN
MINQ1 15:001286Touchdown0–7
CHIQ1 8:15634Field goal3–7
MINQ1 6:061175Touchdown3–14
CHIQ2 14:553-4Punt3–14
MINQ2 13:371086Touchdown3–21
CHIQ2 7:20615Punt3–21
MINQ2 4:05525Punt3–21
CHIQ2 1:54450Touchdown10–21
MINQ2 1:08735Missed field goal10–21
CHIQ3 15:00867Touchdown16–21
MINQ3 10:24615Missed field goal16–21
CHIQ3 7:341144Field goal19–21
MINQ3 1:05729Turnover19–21
CHIQ4 12:44629Field goal22–21
MINQ4 9:261780Touchdown22–29
CHIQ4 2:26536Turnover22–29
MINQ4 1:0100End of half22–29

Box score

Individual performances

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Justin Fields15/2120810

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Justin Fields8475.90
David Montgomery12201.71
Khalil Herbert4112.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
David Montgomery44620
Darnell Mooney25520
Cole Kmet44450
Equanimeous St. Brown22240
Ihmir Smith-Marsette12150
Velus Jones Jr.1191
Ryan Griffin1110
Dante Pettis0200

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kirk Cousins32/4129611
Justin Jefferson1/12300

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Dalvin Cook18945.22
Alexander Mattison9192.10
Kirk Cousins441.01

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Justin Jefferson12131540
Irv Smith45420
K.J. Osborn55410
Adam Thielen47270
Dalvin Cook22270
Alexander Mattison34210
Johnny Mundt2260
Jalen Reagor1111

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +106.2%7.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.1%

Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Bears.

Half-point at risk

3.32%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

64.6%

Expected total

45.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.17
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+5.87