Closing spread
BAL -3
Total
47.5
Model margin
-1.1est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
7.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Ravens
- Bengals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.081EPA / play+0.004
- 47.8%Success rate45.3%
- +0.153EPA / dropback-0.020
- -0.064EPA / rush+0.034
- 7.4%Explosive rate10.1%
- +2.74CPOE-1.40
- 47.3%Third-down rate42.2%
- 72.1%Red-zone TD rate46.9%
- 2.27Points / drive1.87
- 1.6%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 30–25 since 1999
Meetings average 43 points. BAL are 25-28-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Burrow | 24/35 | 217 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Mixon | 14 | 78 | 5.6 | 0 |
| Samaje Perine | 3 | 17 | 5.7 | 0 |
| Joe Burrow | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 1 |
| Ja'Marr Chase | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hayden Hurst | 6 | 7 | 53 | 1 |
| Ja'Marr Chase | 7 | 12 | 50 | 0 |
| Samaje Perine | 4 | 4 | 39 | 0 |
| Mike Thomas | 1 | 3 | 33 | 0 |
| Tyler Boyd | 3 | 4 | 32 | 0 |
| Joe Mixon | 3 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Stanley Morgan | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | 19/32 | 174 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | 12 | 58 | 4.8 | 0 |
| J.K. Dobbins | 8 | 44 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Kenyan Drake | 4 | 26 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Devin Duvernay | 3 | 24 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Mike Davis | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Andrews | 8 | 10 | 89 | 1 |
| Devin Duvernay | 5 | 7 | 54 | 0 |
| Demarcus Robinson | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Tylan Wallace | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| James Proche | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Isaiah Likely | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Kenyan Drake | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Josh Oliver | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
7.22%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
46.2%
Expected total
44.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.53
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin-1.06