2022 · Week 5 · Division

Final

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Joe Burrow

17·19

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Lamar Jackson

M&T Bank Stadium · outdoors · grass

Closing spread

BAL -3

Total

47.5

Model margin

-1.1est.

BAL perspective

Push chance

7.2%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bengals

Ravens

Win probability

  • Ravens
  • Bengals

How each play moved the game.

Ravens winsBengals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bengalsedge mapRavens
  • +0.081EPA / play+0.004
  • 47.8%Success rate45.3%
  • +0.153EPA / dropback-0.020
  • -0.064EPA / rush+0.034
  • 7.4%Explosive rate10.1%
  • +2.74CPOE-1.40
  • 47.3%Third-down rate42.2%
  • 72.1%Red-zone TD rate46.9%
  • 2.27Points / drive1.87
  • 1.6%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 30–26 since 1999

Meetings average 43.1 points. BAL are 25-29-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7CIN @ BAL35–13CIN
2025 · W15BAL @ CIN24–0BAL
2025 · W13CIN @ BAL32–14CIN
2024 · W10CIN @ BAL34–35BAL
2024 · W5BAL @ CIN41–38BAL
2023 · W11CIN @ BAL20–34BAL
2023 · W2BAL @ CIN27–24BAL
2022 · playoffsBAL @ CIN17–24CIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCIN–BAL
CINQ1 15:00417Punt0–0
BALQ1 12:57939Field goal0–3
CINQ1 8:033-10Punt0–3
BALQ1 5:55826Punt0–3
CINQ1 2:5137Punt0–3
BALQ1 1:21750Touchdown0–10
CINQ2 13:2638Punt0–10
BALQ2 11:15428Turnover0–10
CINQ2 9:18888Touchdown7–10
BALQ2 4:54623Punt7–10
CINQ2 1:541062Field goal10–10
BALQ2 0:0400End of half10–10
BALQ3 15:00619Turnover on downs10–10
CINQ3 12:3110Turnover10–10
BALQ3 12:2436Field goal10–13
CINQ3 10:491749Turnover on downs10–13
BALQ3 2:451490Field goal10–16
CINQ4 9:421470Touchdown17–16
BALQ4 1:58745Field goal17–19

Box score

Individual performances

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Burrow24/3521711

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Joe Mixon14785.60
Samaje Perine3175.70
Joe Burrow362.01
Ja'Marr Chase100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Hayden Hurst67531
Ja'Marr Chase712500
Samaje Perine44390
Mike Thomas13330
Tyler Boyd34320
Joe Mixon33100
Stanley Morgan0100

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Lamar Jackson19/3217411

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Lamar Jackson12584.80
J.K. Dobbins8445.50
Kenyan Drake4266.50
Devin Duvernay3248.00
Mike Davis133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mark Andrews810891
Devin Duvernay57540
Demarcus Robinson1280
Tylan Wallace1280
James Proche1270
Isaiah Likely2270
Kenyan Drake1110
Josh Oliver0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +32.8%4.6%3.0%7.4%7.2%2.8%4.2%

Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Bengals.

Half-point at risk

7.22%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

46.2%

Expected total

44.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.53
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin-1.06