2022 · Week 5 · Division

Final

Texans

Houston

QB Davis Mills

13·6

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Trevor Lawrence

TIAA Bank Stadium · outdoors · grass

Closing spread

JAX -7

Total

44

Model margin

+5.3est.

JAX perspective

Push chance

5.0%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Texans

Jaguars

Win probability

  • Jaguars
  • Texans

How each play moved the game.

Jaguars winsTexans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Texansedge mapJaguars
  • -0.167EPA / play+0.045
  • 38.0%Success rate46.6%
  • -0.147EPA / dropback+0.137
  • -0.204EPA / rush-0.100
  • 7.6%Explosive rate9.3%
  • -4.69CPOE+1.07
  • 30.1%Third-down rate42.0%
  • 52.2%Red-zone TD rate59.3%
  • 1.17Points / drive2.07
  • 2.6%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

HOU lead 33–16 since 1999

HOU have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.3 points. JAX are 20-28-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6HOU @ JAX34–31HOU
2025 · W10JAX @ HOU29–36HOU
2025 · W3HOU @ JAX10–17JAX
2024 · W13HOU @ JAX23–20HOU
2024 · W4JAX @ HOU20–24HOU
2023 · W12JAX @ HOU24–21JAX
2023 · W3HOU @ JAX37–17HOU
2022 · W17JAX @ HOU31–3JAX

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultHOU–JAX
HOUQ1 15:0034Punt0–0
JAXQ1 13:5831Punt0–0
HOUQ1 12:21421Punt0–0
JAXQ1 10:13654Punt0–0
HOUQ1 7:10422Punt0–0
JAXQ1 5:251060Field goal0–3
HOUQ1 1:22744Field goal3–3
JAXQ2 12:24855Turnover on downs3–3
HOUQ2 8:07830Field goal6–3
JAXQ2 3:23966Field goal6–6
HOUQ2 0:0600End of half6–6
JAXQ3 15:00968Turnover6–6
HOUQ3 10:041249Punt6–6
JAXQ3 1:541048Turnover on downs6–6
HOUQ4 12:2734Punt6–6
JAXQ4 10:2130Punt6–6
HOUQ4 9:591374Touchdown13–6
JAXQ4 3:11936Turnover on downs13–6
HOUQ4 1:4131Punt13–6
JAXQ4 0:41634Turnover13–6

Box score

Individual performances

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Davis Mills16/2414000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Dameon Pierce26993.81
Rex Burkhead3155.00
Davis Mills221.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Nico Collins46650
Jordan Akins22220
Brandin Cooks46200
Dameon Pierce35140
Rex Burkhead23130
Mason Schreck1160
O.J. Howard0100

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Trevor Lawrence25/4728602

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Travis Etienne10717.10
Trevor Lawrence4297.30
James Robinson10272.70
JaMycal Hasty166.00
Jamal Agnew133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Marvin Jones7111040
Evan Engram610690
Travis Etienne35430
Dan Arnold12200
Chris Manhertz22150
Zay Jones38120
James Robinson22120
Christian Kirk13110
Jamal Agnew0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +73.4%6.3%7.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.0%

Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Texans.

Half-point at risk

4.95%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

63.2%

Expected total

42.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.62
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+5.33