Closing spread
JAX -7
Total
44
Model margin
+5.3est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
5.0%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Jaguars
- Texans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.167EPA / play+0.045
- 38.0%Success rate46.6%
- -0.147EPA / dropback+0.137
- -0.204EPA / rush-0.100
- 7.6%Explosive rate9.3%
- -4.69CPOE+1.07
- 30.1%Third-down rate42.0%
- 52.2%Red-zone TD rate59.3%
- 1.17Points / drive2.07
- 2.6%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
HOU lead 32–16 since 1999
Meetings average 41.9 points. JAX are 20-27-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davis Mills | 16/24 | 140 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dameon Pierce | 26 | 99 | 3.8 | 1 |
| Rex Burkhead | 3 | 15 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Davis Mills | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nico Collins | 4 | 6 | 65 | 0 |
| Jordan Akins | 2 | 2 | 22 | 0 |
| Brandin Cooks | 4 | 6 | 20 | 0 |
| Dameon Pierce | 3 | 5 | 14 | 0 |
| Rex Burkhead | 2 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Mason Schreck | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| O.J. Howard | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Lawrence | 25/47 | 286 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Etienne | 10 | 71 | 7.1 | 0 |
| Trevor Lawrence | 4 | 29 | 7.3 | 0 |
| James Robinson | 10 | 27 | 2.7 | 0 |
| JaMycal Hasty | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Jamal Agnew | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marvin Jones | 7 | 11 | 104 | 0 |
| Evan Engram | 6 | 10 | 69 | 0 |
| Travis Etienne | 3 | 5 | 43 | 0 |
| Dan Arnold | 1 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| Chris Manhertz | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Zay Jones | 3 | 8 | 12 | 0 |
| James Robinson | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Christian Kirk | 1 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Jamal Agnew | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Texans.
Half-point at risk
4.95%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.2%
Expected total
42.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.62
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.33