Closing spread
DEN -8
Total
52.5
Model margin
+3.8est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Broncos
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.029EPA / play+0.083
- 45.9%Success rate46.3%
- +0.147EPA / dropback+0.188
- -0.221EPA / rush-0.075
- 9.7%Explosive rate10.7%
- +1.10CPOE+3.06
- 42.2%Third-down rate44.4%
- 62.3%Red-zone TD rate70.9%
- 2.01Points / drive2.29
- 2.7%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 14–6 since 1999
Meetings average 48.3 points. DEN are 6-14 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Luck | 35/53 | 370 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Richardson | 6 | 20 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Andrew Luck | 5 | 19 | 3.8 | 1 |
| Ahmad Bradshaw | 3 | 15 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reggie Wayne | 9 | 13 | 98 | 0 |
| Ahmad Bradshaw | 5 | 6 | 70 | 0 |
| Dwayne Allen | 4 | 5 | 64 | 1 |
| T.Y. Hilton | 5 | 11 | 41 | 0 |
| Hakeem Nicks | 5 | 5 | 36 | 1 |
| Trent Richardson | 3 | 4 | 31 | 0 |
| Coby Fleener | 3 | 8 | 21 | 0 |
| Donte Moncrief | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 22/36 | 269 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montee Ball | 23 | 67 | 2.9 | 1 |
| C.J. Anderson | 4 | 27 | 6.8 | 0 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Peyton Manning | 4 | -3 | -0.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julius Thomas | 7 | 8 | 104 | 3 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | 6 | 9 | 77 | 0 |
| Demaryius Thomas | 4 | 11 | 48 | 0 |
| Andre Caldwell | 2 | 5 | 16 | 0 |
| Montee Ball | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Virgil Green | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
2.15%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.3%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.35
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.83