2014 · Week 1

Final

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Andrew Luck

24·31

Broncos

Denver

QB Peyton Manning

Sports Authority Field at Mile High · outdoors · grass · 75°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

DEN -8

Total

52.5

Model margin

+3.8est.

DEN perspective

Push chance

2.2%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Colts

Broncos

Win probability

  • Broncos
  • Colts

How each play moved the game.

Broncos winsColts wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Coltsedge mapBroncos
  • +0.029EPA / play+0.083
  • 45.9%Success rate46.3%
  • +0.147EPA / dropback+0.188
  • -0.221EPA / rush-0.075
  • 9.7%Explosive rate10.7%
  • +1.10CPOE+3.06
  • 42.2%Third-down rate44.4%
  • 62.3%Red-zone TD rate70.9%
  • 2.01Points / drive2.29
  • 2.7%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 14–6 since 1999

Meetings average 48.3 points. DEN are 6-14 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W2DEN @ IND28–29IND
2024 · W15IND @ DEN13–31DEN
2022 · W5IND @ DEN12–9IND
2019 · W8DEN @ IND13–15IND
2017 · W15DEN @ IND25–13DEN
2016 · W2IND @ DEN20–34DEN
2015 · W9DEN @ IND24–27IND
2014 · playoffsIND @ DEN24–13IND

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultIND–DEN
INDQ1 15:00644Punt0–0
DENQ1 11:491577Field goal0–3
INDQ1 5:14524Turnover0–3
DENQ1 3:14954Touchdown0–10
INDQ2 14:143-1Punt0–10
DENQ2 12:051078Touchdown0–17
INDQ2 6:413-5Punt0–17
DENQ2 5:10866Touchdown0–24
INDQ2 1:57975Touchdown7–24
DENQ2 0:1900End of half7–24
DENQ3 15:0041Punt7–24
INDQ3 13:43819Turnover on downs7–24
DENQ3 10:16622Punt7–24
INDQ3 7:291165Field goal10–24
DENQ3 1:31620Punt10–24
INDQ4 14:4242Punt10–24
DENQ4 13:25752Touchdown10–31
INDQ4 9:54780Touchdown17–31
DENQ4 7:4600Turnover17–31
INDQ4 7:45730Turnover17–31
DENQ4 5:253-6Punt17–31
INDQ4 4:15545Touchdown24–31
DENQ4 3:2630Punt24–31
INDQ4 2:58630Turnover on downs24–31
DENQ4 1:5100End of half24–31

Box score

Individual performances

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Andrew Luck35/5337022

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Trent Richardson6203.30
Andrew Luck5193.81
Ahmad Bradshaw3155.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Reggie Wayne913980
Ahmad Bradshaw56700
Dwayne Allen45641
T.Y. Hilton511410
Hakeem Nicks55361
Trent Richardson34310
Coby Fleener38210
Donte Moncrief1190

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Peyton Manning22/3626930

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Montee Ball23672.91
C.J. Anderson4276.80
Emmanuel Sanders11111.00
Peyton Manning4-3-0.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Julius Thomas781043
Emmanuel Sanders69770
Demaryius Thomas411480
Andre Caldwell25160
Montee Ball22160
Virgil Green1180

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +83.7%6.7%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Colts.

Half-point at risk

2.15%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

59.3%

Expected total

43.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.35
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.83