Closing spread
KC -7.5
Total
51.5
Model margin
+6.3est.
KC perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.009EPA / play+0.179
- 43.4%Success rate50.6%
- +0.057EPA / dropback+0.273
- -0.071EPA / rush-0.019
- 9.9%Explosive rate9.3%
- -2.03CPOE+3.02
- 39.7%Third-down rate49.4%
- 59.7%Red-zone TD rate71.2%
- 2.10Points / drive2.71
- 1.9%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 35–19 since 1999
Meetings average 44.3 points. KC are 26-27-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Raiders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derek Carr | 19/30 | 241 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Jacobs | 21 | 154 | 7.3 | 1 |
| Brandon Bolden | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Derek Carr | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Zamir White | 1 | -7 | -7.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davante Adams | 3 | 7 | 124 | 2 |
| Josh Jacobs | 5 | 5 | 39 | 0 |
| Brandon Bolden | 3 | 3 | 29 | 0 |
| Hunter Renfrow | 4 | 4 | 25 | 0 |
| Jesper Horsted | 3 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| Jakob Johnson | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Mack Hollins | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 29/43 | 292 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerick McKinnon | 8 | 53 | 6.6 | 0 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 4 | 28 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire | 9 | 15 | 1.7 | 0 |
| Mecole Hardman | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Isiah Pacheco | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 6 | 8 | 90 | 0 |
| Mecole Hardman | 4 | 5 | 73 | 0 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | 3 | 8 | 33 | 0 |
| Travis Kelce | 7 | 8 | 25 | 4 |
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire | 3 | 4 | 20 | 0 |
| Jerick McKinnon | 2 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| Skyy Moore | 2 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Justin Watson | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Noah Gray | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
2.23%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
65.7%
Expected total
45.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.61
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+6.32