Closing spread
KC -7.5
Total
51.5
Model margin
+6.3est.
KC perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Raiders
- OutJayon BrownLBHamstring· DNP
- QuestionableFoster MoreauTEKnee· Limited
- QuestionableSam WebbCBHamstring· Limited
- LimitedJustin HerronTKnee
Chiefs
- OutHarrison ButkerKleft Ankle· DNP
- QuestionableJuJu Smith-SchusterWRQuadricep· Limited
- QuestionableMichael DannaDECalf· Full
- QuestionableTrey SmithGPectoral· Limited
- DNPCreed HumphreyCNot injury related - personal matter
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.009EPA / play+0.179
- 43.4%Success rate50.6%
- +0.057EPA / dropback+0.273
- -0.071EPA / rush-0.019
- 9.9%Explosive rate9.3%
- -2.03CPOE+3.02
- 39.7%Third-down rate49.4%
- 59.7%Red-zone TD rate71.2%
- 2.10Points / drive2.71
- 1.9%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 36–19 since 1999
Meetings average 44.5 points. KC are 26-28-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | LV–KC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LV | Q1 15:00 | 4 | 15 | Punt | 0–0 |
| KC | Q1 12:50 | 3 | -11 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LV | Q1 11:19 | 5 | 77 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| KC | Q1 8:27 | 10 | 52 | Missed field goal | 7–0 |
| LV | Q1 4:03 | 12 | 21 | Touchdown | 14–0 |
| KC | Q2 14:00 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 14–0 |
| LV | Q2 12:25 | 5 | 43 | Field goal | 17–0 |
| KC | Q2 9:22 | 11 | 75 | Touchdown | 17–7 |
| LV | Q2 4:40 | 10 | 42 | Field goal | 20–7 |
| KC | Q2 0:17 | 3 | 19 | Field goal | 20–10 |
| KC | Q3 15:00 | 13 | 70 | Touchdown | 20–17 |
| LV | Q3 9:25 | 4 | 11 | Punt | 20–17 |
| KC | Q3 7:04 | 8 | 55 | Touchdown | 20–24 |
| LV | Q3 3:20 | 7 | 55 | Field goal | 23–24 |
| KC | Q4 14:05 | 14 | 80 | Touchdown | 23–30 |
| LV | Q4 7:25 | 7 | 75 | Touchdown | 29–30 |
| KC | Q4 4:27 | 5 | 23 | Punt | 29–30 |
| LV | Q4 2:29 | 9 | 39 | Turnover on downs | 29–30 |
| KC | Q4 0:41 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 29–30 |
Box score
Individual performances
Raiders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derek Carr | 19/30 | 241 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Jacobs | 21 | 154 | 7.3 | 1 |
| Brandon Bolden | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Derek Carr | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Zamir White | 1 | -7 | -7.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davante Adams | 3 | 7 | 124 | 2 |
| Josh Jacobs | 5 | 5 | 39 | 0 |
| Brandon Bolden | 3 | 3 | 29 | 0 |
| Hunter Renfrow | 4 | 4 | 25 | 0 |
| Jesper Horsted | 3 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| Jakob Johnson | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Mack Hollins | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 29/43 | 292 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerick McKinnon | 8 | 53 | 6.6 | 0 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 4 | 28 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire | 9 | 15 | 1.7 | 0 |
| Mecole Hardman | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Isiah Pacheco | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 6 | 8 | 90 | 0 |
| Mecole Hardman | 4 | 5 | 73 | 0 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | 3 | 8 | 33 | 0 |
| Travis Kelce | 7 | 8 | 25 | 4 |
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire | 3 | 4 | 20 | 0 |
| Jerick McKinnon | 2 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| Skyy Moore | 2 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Justin Watson | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Noah Gray | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
2.23%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
65.7%
Expected total
45.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.61
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+6.32