2022 · Week 5 · Division

Final

Dolphins

Miami

QB Teddy Bridgewater

17·40

Jets

New York

QB Zach Wilson

MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf

Closing spread

MIA -3

Total

46

Model margin

+4.9est.

NYJ perspective

Push chance

6.4%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Dolphins

Jets

Win probability

  • Jets
  • Dolphins

How each play moved the game.

Jets winsDolphins wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Dolphinsedge mapJets
  • +0.054EPA / play-0.086
  • 44.6%Success rate39.1%
  • +0.111EPA / dropback-0.081
  • -0.050EPA / rush-0.093
  • 10.1%Explosive rate8.2%
  • +0.08CPOE-4.97
  • 37.6%Third-down rate34.3%
  • 66.9%Red-zone TD rate39.8%
  • 2.11Points / drive1.41
  • 2.0%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIA lead 29–26 since 1999

MIA have won 3 straight. Meetings average 40.9 points. NYJ are 28-24-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7MIA @ NYJ28–25MIA
2025 · W14MIA @ NYJ34–10MIA
2025 · W4NYJ @ MIA21–27MIA
2024 · W18MIA @ NYJ20–32NYJ
2024 · W14NYJ @ MIA26–32MIA
2023 · W15NYJ @ MIA0–30MIA
2023 · W12MIA @ NYJ34–13MIA
2022 · W18NYJ @ MIA6–11MIA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIA–NYJ
NYJQ1 15:00419Punt0–2
MIAQ1 12:4810Safety0–2
NYJQ1 12:3845Punt0–2
MIAQ1 9:43810Punt0–2
NYJQ1 6:39826Field goal0–5
MIAQ1 3:0738Punt0–5
NYJQ1 0:52280Touchdown0–12
MIAQ2 14:56948Touchdown7–12
NYJQ2 9:5539Punt7–12
MIAQ2 8:50215Turnover7–12
NYJQ2 8:00953Touchdown7–19
MIAQ2 2:381175Touchdown14–19
NYJQ2 0:0400End of half14–19
MIAQ3 15:001047Field goal17–19
NYJQ3 8:40723Turnover on downs17–19
MIAQ3 5:2530Punt17–19
NYJQ3 3:55619Punt17–19
MIAQ3 0:22614Missed field goal17–19
NYJQ4 13:15756Touchdown17–26
MIAQ4 9:221-3Turnover17–32
NYJQ4 9:1315Touchdown17–33
MIAQ4 9:0845Turnover on downs17–33
NYJQ4 7:31530Touchdown17–40
MIAQ4 4:24976Turnover on downs17–40
NYJQ4 0:5900End of half17–40

Box score

Individual performances

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Skylar Thompson19/3316601
Teddy Bridgewater0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Raheem Mostert181136.31
Tyreek Hill2136.50
Myles Gaskin492.30
Chase Edmonds111.00
Durham Smythe111.01

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tyreek Hill77470
Mike Gesicki12300
Myles Gaskin35240
Jaylen Waddle34230
Cedrick Wilson Jr.24200
Raheem Mostert1390
Durham Smythe1180
Trent Sherfield1250
River Cracraft0100
Chase Edmonds0200
Tanner Conner0100

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Zach Wilson14/2121000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Breece Hall18975.41
Michael Carter10212.12
Braxton Berrios11515.01
Zach Wilson420.51

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Breece Hall221000
Corey Davis24380
Garrett Wilson34270
C.J. Uzomah22120
Michael Carter22120
Jeff Smith11110
Elijah Moore14110
Tyler Conklin0100
Braxton Berrios11-10

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -33.5%6.4%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%

Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Dolphins.

Half-point at risk

6.45%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

62.2%

Expected total

43.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.36
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+4.82
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin+4.92