Closing spread
MIA -3
Total
46
Model margin
+4.9est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
6.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Jets
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.054EPA / play-0.086
- 44.6%Success rate39.1%
- +0.111EPA / dropback-0.081
- -0.050EPA / rush-0.093
- 10.1%Explosive rate8.2%
- +0.08CPOE-4.97
- 37.6%Third-down rate34.3%
- 66.9%Red-zone TD rate39.8%
- 2.11Points / drive1.41
- 2.0%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIA lead 28–26 since 1999
MIA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 40.6 points. NYJ are 28-23-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Skylar Thompson | 19/33 | 166 | 0 | 1 |
| Teddy Bridgewater | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raheem Mostert | 18 | 113 | 6.3 | 1 |
| Tyreek Hill | 2 | 13 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Myles Gaskin | 4 | 9 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Chase Edmonds | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Durham Smythe | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyreek Hill | 7 | 7 | 47 | 0 |
| Mike Gesicki | 1 | 2 | 30 | 0 |
| Myles Gaskin | 3 | 5 | 24 | 0 |
| Jaylen Waddle | 3 | 4 | 23 | 0 |
| Cedrick Wilson Jr. | 2 | 4 | 20 | 0 |
| Raheem Mostert | 1 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Durham Smythe | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Trent Sherfield | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| River Cracraft | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Chase Edmonds | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Tanner Conner | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Wilson | 14/21 | 210 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breece Hall | 18 | 97 | 5.4 | 1 |
| Michael Carter | 10 | 21 | 2.1 | 2 |
| Braxton Berrios | 1 | 15 | 15.0 | 1 |
| Zach Wilson | 4 | 2 | 0.5 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breece Hall | 2 | 2 | 100 | 0 |
| Corey Davis | 2 | 4 | 38 | 0 |
| Garrett Wilson | 3 | 4 | 27 | 0 |
| C.J. Uzomah | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Michael Carter | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Jeff Smith | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Elijah Moore | 1 | 4 | 11 | 0 |
| Tyler Conklin | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Braxton Berrios | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
6.45%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.2%
Expected total
43.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.36
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+4.82
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+4.92