2022 · Week 6 · Division

Final

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Kyler Murray

9·19

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Geno Smith

Lumen Field · outdoors · fieldturf

Closing spread

ARI -2.5

Total

50

Model margin

+3.4est.

SEA perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cardinals

Seahawks

Win probability

  • Seahawks
  • Cardinals

How each play moved the game.

Seahawks winsCardinals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cardinalsedge mapSeahawks
  • -0.081EPA / play+0.013
  • 40.7%Success rate44.8%
  • -0.079EPA / dropback+0.060
  • -0.084EPA / rush-0.071
  • 6.3%Explosive rate9.2%
  • -1.70CPOE+5.46
  • 35.4%Third-down rate37.4%
  • 59.7%Red-zone TD rate54.3%
  • 1.60Points / drive2.05
  • 2.0%Turnover rate1.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SEA lead 31–17–1 since 1999

SEA have won 10 straight. Meetings average 43.4 points. SEA are 27-21-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2SEA @ ARI31–7SEA
2025 · W10ARI @ SEA22–44SEA
2025 · W4SEA @ ARI23–20SEA
2024 · W14SEA @ ARI30–18SEA
2024 · W12ARI @ SEA6–16SEA
2023 · W18SEA @ ARI21–20SEA
2023 · W7ARI @ SEA10–20SEA
2022 · W9SEA @ ARI31–21SEA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultARI–SEA
ARIQ1 15:00976Field goal3–0
SEAQ1 10:20759Field goal3–3
ARIQ1 6:411455Turnover on downs3–3
SEAQ2 14:5537Punt3–3
ARIQ2 12:493-6Punt3–3
SEAQ2 10:49951Field goal3–6
ARIQ2 6:05420Punt3–6
SEAQ2 3:12715Punt3–6
ARIQ2 1:173-1Punt3–6
SEAQ2 0:55657Field goal3–9
SEAQ3 15:003-1Punt3–9
ARIQ3 13:26943Turnover on downs3–9
SEAQ3 9:111038Field goal3–12
ARIQ3 4:11450Turnover3–12
SEAQ3 2:204-19Opp touchdown9–12
SEAQ3 0:54775Touchdown9–19
ARIQ4 13:24845Turnover on downs9–19
SEAQ4 10:063-13Punt9–19
ARIQ4 8:243-9Punt9–19
SEAQ4 7:4132Punt9–19
ARIQ4 6:401137Turnover9–19
SEAQ4 3:52725Punt9–19
ARIQ4 1:0835End of half9–19

Box score

Individual performances

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kyler Murray23/3722201

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kyler Murray1010010.00
Eno Benjamin15372.50
Keaontay Ingram372.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Zach Ertz710700
Marquise Brown59680
Rondale Moore610490
Eno Benjamin33280
A.J. Green2470

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Geno Smith20/3119700

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kenneth Walker III21974.61
Geno Smith6488.00
DeeJay Dallas210.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Noah Fant67450
Dee Eskridge33390
DK Metcalf27340
Marquise Goodwin22260
Tyler Lockett25170
Kenneth Walker III23130
Will Dissly11120
Colby Parkinson22110

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -2.53.8%6.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%

Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Cardinals.

Half-point at risk

1.99%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.2%

Expected total

43.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.69
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.40