Closing spread
ARI -2.5
Total
50
Model margin
+3.4est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Seahawks
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.081EPA / play+0.013
- 40.7%Success rate44.8%
- -0.079EPA / dropback+0.060
- -0.084EPA / rush-0.071
- 6.3%Explosive rate9.2%
- -1.70CPOE+5.46
- 35.4%Third-down rate37.4%
- 59.7%Red-zone TD rate54.3%
- 1.60Points / drive2.05
- 2.0%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 30–17–1 since 1999
SEA have won 9 straight. Meetings average 43.5 points. SEA are 26-21-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyler Murray | 23/37 | 222 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyler Murray | 10 | 100 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Eno Benjamin | 15 | 37 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Keaontay Ingram | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Ertz | 7 | 10 | 70 | 0 |
| Marquise Brown | 5 | 9 | 68 | 0 |
| Rondale Moore | 6 | 10 | 49 | 0 |
| Eno Benjamin | 3 | 3 | 28 | 0 |
| A.J. Green | 2 | 4 | 7 | 0 |
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geno Smith | 20/31 | 197 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenneth Walker III | 21 | 97 | 4.6 | 1 |
| Geno Smith | 6 | 48 | 8.0 | 0 |
| DeeJay Dallas | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noah Fant | 6 | 7 | 45 | 0 |
| Dee Eskridge | 3 | 3 | 39 | 0 |
| DK Metcalf | 2 | 7 | 34 | 0 |
| Marquise Goodwin | 2 | 2 | 26 | 0 |
| Tyler Lockett | 2 | 5 | 17 | 0 |
| Kenneth Walker III | 2 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Will Dissly | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Colby Parkinson | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
1.99%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.2%
Expected total
43.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.69
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.40