Closing spread
PHI -6.5
Total
42.5
Model margin
+5.5est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Eagles
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.031EPA / play+0.100
- 45.2%Success rate47.9%
- +0.082EPA / dropback+0.121
- -0.031EPA / rush+0.072
- 9.6%Explosive rate11.3%
- -1.95CPOE+2.05
- 46.2%Third-down rate46.2%
- 71.3%Red-zone TD rate72.8%
- 2.26Points / drive2.43
- 1.8%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 29–26 since 1999
Meetings average 44.8 points. PHI are 27-27-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cooper Rush | 18/38 | 181 | 1 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ezekiel Elliott | 13 | 81 | 6.2 | 1 |
| Tony Pollard | 11 | 44 | 4.0 | 0 |
| CeeDee Lamb | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CeeDee Lamb | 5 | 10 | 68 | 0 |
| Jake Ferguson | 4 | 6 | 40 | 1 |
| Peyton Hendershot | 2 | 5 | 22 | 0 |
| Michael Gallup | 2 | 7 | 18 | 0 |
| Noah Brown | 1 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Sean McKeon | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Tony Pollard | 2 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| KaVontae Turpin | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Hurts | 15/25 | 155 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miles Sanders | 18 | 71 | 3.9 | 1 |
| Jalen Hurts | 9 | 27 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Kenny Gainwell | 5 | 25 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Boston Scott | 6 | 16 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Quez Watkins | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Brown | 5 | 8 | 67 | 1 |
| DeVonta Smith | 5 | 5 | 44 | 1 |
| Dallas Goedert | 2 | 6 | 22 | 0 |
| Jack Stoll | 1 | 1 | 21 | 0 |
| Miles Sanders | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Quez Watkins | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
4.96%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.6%
Expected total
43.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.28
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+3.51
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.49