2022 · Week 6 · Division

Final

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Cooper Rush

17·26

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Jalen Hurts

Lincoln Financial Field · outdoors · grass

Closing spread

PHI -6.5

Total

42.5

Model margin

+5.5est.

PHI perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cowboys

Eagles

Win probability

  • Eagles
  • Cowboys

How each play moved the game.

Eagles winsCowboys wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cowboysedge mapEagles
  • +0.031EPA / play+0.100
  • 45.2%Success rate47.9%
  • +0.082EPA / dropback+0.121
  • -0.031EPA / rush+0.072
  • 9.6%Explosive rate11.3%
  • -1.95CPOE+2.05
  • 46.2%Third-down rate46.2%
  • 71.3%Red-zone TD rate72.8%
  • 2.26Points / drive2.43
  • 1.8%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 29–27 since 1999

DAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 45 points. PHI are 27-28-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7DAL @ PHI38–21DAL
2025 · W12PHI @ DAL21–24DAL
2025 · W1DAL @ PHI20–24PHI
2024 · W17DAL @ PHI7–41PHI
2024 · W10PHI @ DAL34–6PHI
2023 · W14PHI @ DAL13–33DAL
2023 · W9DAL @ PHI23–28PHI
2022 · W16PHI @ DAL34–40DAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDAL–PHI
DALQ1 15:0039Punt0–0
PHIQ1 13:11515Punt0–0
DALQ1 10:46617Punt0–0
PHIQ1 7:311575Touchdown0–7
DALQ2 14:5510Turnover0–7
PHIQ2 14:47744Touchdown0–14
DALQ2 10:4049Turnover on downs0–14
PHIQ2 9:2431Field goal0–17
DALQ2 7:53517Turnover0–17
PHIQ2 5:14735Field goal0–20
DALQ2 1:47829Field goal3–20
PHIQ2 0:2913End of half3–20
PHIQ3 15:00415Punt3–20
DALQ3 12:47979Touchdown10–20
PHIQ3 8:195-9Punt10–20
DALQ3 6:461793Touchdown17–20
PHIQ4 14:391375Touchdown17–26
DALQ4 7:02415Turnover17–26
PHIQ4 5:03512Punt17–26
DALQ4 2:391047Missed field goal17–26
PHIQ4 1:0834End of half17–26

Box score

Individual performances

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Cooper Rush18/3818113

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ezekiel Elliott13816.21
Tony Pollard11444.00
CeeDee Lamb294.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
CeeDee Lamb510680
Jake Ferguson46401
Peyton Hendershot25220
Michael Gallup27180
Noah Brown13100
Sean McKeon11100
Tony Pollard2380
Ezekiel Elliott1150
KaVontae Turpin0100

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jalen Hurts15/2515520

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Miles Sanders18713.91
Jalen Hurts9273.00
Kenny Gainwell5255.00
Boston Scott6162.70
Quez Watkins1-3-3.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
A.J. Brown58671
DeVonta Smith55441
Dallas Goedert26220
Jack Stoll11210
Miles Sanders1110
Quez Watkins1100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +6.53.4%6.3%7.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.1%

Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Cowboys.

Half-point at risk

4.96%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

63.6%

Expected total

43.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.28
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+3.51
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+5.49