2022 · Week 6 · Division

Final / OT

Broncos

Denver

QB Russell Wilson

16·19

Chargers

Los Angeles

QB Justin Herbert

SoFi Stadium · dome · matrixturf

Closing spread

LAC -3.5

Total

45.5

Model margin

+3.5est.

LAC perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Broncos

Chargers

Win probability

  • Chargers
  • Broncos

How each play moved the game.

Chargers winsBroncos wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Broncosedge mapChargers
  • -0.077EPA / play+0.007
  • 39.4%Success rate44.1%
  • -0.050EPA / dropback+0.037
  • -0.124EPA / rush-0.057
  • 8.7%Explosive rate6.9%
  • -1.65CPOE+1.13
  • 29.1%Third-down rate43.5%
  • 61.5%Red-zone TD rate55.9%
  • 1.34Points / drive1.97
  • 1.9%Turnover rate1.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DEN lead 33–23 since 1999

DEN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.8 points. LAC are 25-26-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5DEN @ LAC23–17DEN
2025 · W18LAC @ DEN3–19DEN
2025 · W3DEN @ LAC20–23CHARGERS
2024 · W16DEN @ LAC27–34CHARGERS
2024 · W6LAC @ DEN23–16CHARGERS
2023 · W17LAC @ DEN9–16DEN
2023 · W14DEN @ LAC24–7DEN
2022 · W18LAC @ DEN28–31DEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDEN–LAC
LACQ1 15:00811Punt0–0
DENQ1 12:31940Field goal3–0
LACQ1 7:20415Punt3–0
DENQ1 5:30784Touchdown10–0
LACQ1 1:491582Touchdown10–7
DENQ2 9:0935Punt10–7
LACQ2 7:291632Field goal10–10
DENQ2 0:53757Field goal13–10
DENQ3 15:0038Punt13–10
LACQ3 13:271055Field goal13–13
DENQ3 9:08811Punt13–13
LACQ3 5:131137Turnover on downs13–13
DENQ4 14:55832Punt13–13
LACQ4 10:4110Turnover13–13
DENQ4 10:2830Field goal16–13
LACQ4 8:211128Field goal16–16
DENQ4 3:5849Punt16–16
LACQ4 1:51719Turnover on downs16–16
DENOT39Punt16–16
LACOT45Punt16–16
DENOT33Punt16–16
LACOT36Punt16–16
LACOT37Field goal16–19

Box score

Individual performances

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Russell Wilson15/2818810

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Latavius Murray15664.40
Russell Wilson4235.80
Melvin Gordon382.70
Mike Boone111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jerry Jeudy37540
KJ Hamler23440
Greg Dulcich23441
Eric Tomlinson11160
Courtland Sutton23140
Kendall Hinton1180
Mike Boone1430
Montrell Washington1100
Latavius Murray11-20

Chargers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Justin Herbert37/5723801

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Austin Ekeler14362.61
Sony Michel8283.50
Justin Herbert294.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Josh Palmer912570
Donald Parham33530
Austin Ekeler1016470
Gerald Everett57290
DeAndre Carter35170
Mike Williams26170
Sony Michel33140
Michael Bandy1240
Zander Horvath1100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.53.8%6.8%7.5%3.2%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Broncos.

Half-point at risk

2.55%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.6%

Expected total

44.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.08
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin+3.55