Closing spread
LAC -3.5
Total
45.5
Model margin
+3.5est.
LAC perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Chargers
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.077EPA / play+0.007
- 39.4%Success rate44.1%
- -0.050EPA / dropback+0.037
- -0.124EPA / rush-0.057
- 8.7%Explosive rate6.9%
- -1.65CPOE+1.13
- 29.1%Third-down rate43.5%
- 61.5%Red-zone TD rate55.9%
- 1.34Points / drive1.97
- 1.9%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DEN lead 32–23 since 1999
Meetings average 43.9 points. LAC are 25-25-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 15/28 | 188 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Latavius Murray | 15 | 66 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Russell Wilson | 4 | 23 | 5.8 | 0 |
| Melvin Gordon | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Mike Boone | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerry Jeudy | 3 | 7 | 54 | 0 |
| KJ Hamler | 2 | 3 | 44 | 0 |
| Greg Dulcich | 2 | 3 | 44 | 1 |
| Eric Tomlinson | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
| Courtland Sutton | 2 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Kendall Hinton | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Mike Boone | 1 | 4 | 3 | 0 |
| Montrell Washington | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Latavius Murray | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
Chargers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Herbert | 37/57 | 238 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin Ekeler | 14 | 36 | 2.6 | 1 |
| Sony Michel | 8 | 28 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Justin Herbert | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Palmer | 9 | 12 | 57 | 0 |
| Donald Parham | 3 | 3 | 53 | 0 |
| Austin Ekeler | 10 | 16 | 47 | 0 |
| Gerald Everett | 5 | 7 | 29 | 0 |
| DeAndre Carter | 3 | 5 | 17 | 0 |
| Mike Williams | 2 | 6 | 17 | 0 |
| Sony Michel | 3 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Michael Bandy | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Zander Horvath | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
2.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.6%
Expected total
44.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.08
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+3.55