Closing spread
NE -11
Total
41
Model margin
-5.2est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
1.6%est.
Win probability
- Browns
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.099EPA / play-0.147
- 46.5%Success rate38.6%
- +0.228EPA / dropback-0.067
- -0.039EPA / rush-0.251
- 10.3%Explosive rate7.6%
- 45.1%Third-down rate29.2%
- 62.5%Red-zone TD rate50.7%
- 2.15Points / drive1.18
- 2.5%Turnover rate3.8%
- -0.088EPA / play allowed-0.002
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 11–2 since 1999
NE have won 6 straight. Meetings average 42.8 points. CLE are 3-9-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 11/20 | 157 | 1 | 1 |
| Rohan Davey | 3/6 | 44 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corey Dillon | 18 | 100 | 5.6 | 2 |
| Kevin Faulk | 13 | 87 | 6.7 | 1 |
| Cedric Cobbs | 16 | 29 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Patrick Pass | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Rohan Davey | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luke McCown | 20/34 | 277 | 2 | 2 |
| Frisman Jackson | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Green | 12 | 15 | 1.3 | 0 |
| Adimchinobe Echemandu | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Luke McCown | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Dennis Northcutt | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
1.56%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
35.5%
Expected total
42.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-5.37
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-2.34
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-5.15