Closing spread
NE -9.5
Total
40
Model margin
+5.4est.
NE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Patriots
- Bears
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.039EPA / play-0.047
- 41.1%Success rate41.1%
- -0.070EPA / dropback-0.026
- -0.004EPA / rush-0.082
- 10.4%Explosive rate10.3%
- -4.05CPOE+0.93
- 41.0%Third-down rate35.3%
- 60.7%Red-zone TD rate56.0%
- 1.78Points / drive1.54
- 2.3%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 6–2 since 1999
Meetings average 48.6 points. NE are 4-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Fields | 13/21 | 179 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Fields | 14 | 82 | 5.9 | 1 |
| David Montgomery | 15 | 62 | 4.1 | 1 |
| Khalil Herbert | 12 | 62 | 5.2 | 0 |
| Dante Pettis | 1 | 29 | 29.0 | 0 |
| Trestan Ebner | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darnell Mooney | 3 | 6 | 53 | 0 |
| Equanimeous St. Brown | 4 | 7 | 48 | 0 |
| Cole Kmet | 2 | 3 | 32 | 0 |
| Khalil Herbert | 1 | 2 | 25 | 1 |
| N'Keal Harry | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Ryan Griffin | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Dante Pettis | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bailey Zappe | 14/22 | 185 | 1 | 2 |
| Mac Jones | 3/6 | 13 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 11 | 39 | 3.5 | 1 |
| Mac Jones | 3 | 24 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Damien Harris | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Bailey Zappe | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeVante Parker | 3 | 5 | 68 | 0 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 8 | 8 | 59 | 0 |
| Jakobi Meyers | 2 | 2 | 34 | 1 |
| Tyquan Thornton | 1 | 5 | 19 | 0 |
| Hunter Henry | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Jonnu Smith | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
| Damien Harris | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Nelson Agholor | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Bears.
Half-point at risk
3.29%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.4%
Expected total
44.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.92
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+5.39