Closing spread
NE -3
Total
37.5
Model margin
-0.9est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
7.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bears
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.191EPA / play-0.097
- 48.7%Success rate39.0%
- +0.265EPA / dropback-0.053
- +0.096EPA / rush-0.166
- 10.2%Explosive rate8.3%
- +2.77CPOE+0.87
- 48.3%Third-down rate33.1%
- 65.4%Red-zone TD rate47.3%
- 2.76Points / drive1.43
- 0.9%Turnover rate3.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 6–2 since 1999
Meetings average 48.6 points. CHI are 4-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 27/40 | 369 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BenJarvus Green-Ellis | 21 | 87 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Danny Woodhead | 7 | 21 | 3.0 | 1 |
| Fred Taylor | 3 | 16 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Sammy Morris | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Brian Hoyer | 3 | -2 | -0.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deion Branch | 8 | 10 | 151 | 1 |
| Wes Welker | 8 | 13 | 115 | 0 |
| Rob Gronkowski | 5 | 6 | 43 | 1 |
| Brandon Tate | 2 | 3 | 40 | 0 |
| Aaron Hernandez | 2 | 4 | 19 | 0 |
| Danny Woodhead | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| BenJarvus Green-Ellis | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Cutler | 12/26 | 152 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Forte | 9 | 25 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Jay Cutler | 2 | 21 | 10.5 | 0 |
| Chester Taylor | 3 | 1 | 0.3 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Earl Bennett | 3 | 7 | 53 | 0 |
| Matt Forte | 2 | 6 | 36 | 0 |
| Devin Hester | 2 | 4 | 17 | 0 |
| Devin Aromashodu | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
| Johnny Knox | 2 | 4 | 16 | 0 |
| Chester Taylor | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Greg Olsen | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Brandon Manumaleuna | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
7.44%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
46.5%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.51
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin-0.95