2010 · Week 14

Final

Patriots

New England

QB Tom Brady

36·7

Bears

Chicago

QB Jay Cutler

Soldier Field · outdoors · grass · 26°F · wind 30mph

Closing spread

NE -3

Total

37.5

Model margin

-0.9est.

CHI perspective

Push chance

7.4%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Patriots

Bears

Win probability

  • Bears
  • Patriots

How each play moved the game.

Bears winsPatriots wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Patriotsedge mapBears
  • +0.191EPA / play-0.097
  • 48.7%Success rate39.0%
  • +0.265EPA / dropback-0.053
  • +0.096EPA / rush-0.166
  • 10.2%Explosive rate8.3%
  • +2.77CPOE+0.87
  • 48.3%Third-down rate33.1%
  • 65.4%Red-zone TD rate47.3%
  • 2.76Points / drive1.43
  • 0.9%Turnover rate3.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 6–3 since 1999

Meetings average 49.2 points. CHI are 5-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7NE @ CHI24–30CHI
2024 · W10NE @ CHI19–3NE
2022 · W7CHI @ NE33–14CHI
2018 · W7NE @ CHI38–31NE
2014 · W8CHI @ NE23–51NE
2006 · W12CHI @ NE13–17NE
2002 · W10NE @ CHI33–30NE
2000 · W15NE @ CHI17–24CHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNE–CHI
NEQ1 15:0031Punt0–0
CHIQ1 13:0437Punt0–0
NEQ1 11:031285Touchdown7–0
CHIQ1 5:47939Punt7–0
NEQ2 15:001187Touchdown14–0
CHIQ2 10:161-3Opp touchdown21–0
CHIQ2 9:564-1Punt21–0
NEQ2 8:09618Field goal24–0
CHIQ2 4:361-10Turnover24–0
NEQ2 4:2132Field goal27–0
CHIQ2 3:2031Punt27–0
NEQ2 1:38580Touchdown33–0
CHIQ3 15:0049Punt33–0
NEQ3 13:51652Field goal36–0
CHIQ3 10:56635Touchdown36–7
NEQ3 8:431262Turnover on downs36–7
CHIQ3 2:40738Turnover36–7
NEQ3 0:161248Punt36–7
CHIQ4 9:12870Turnover36–7
NEQ4 6:31842End of half36–7

Box score

Individual performances

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tom Brady27/4036920

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
BenJarvus Green-Ellis21874.10
Danny Woodhead7213.01
Fred Taylor3165.30
Sammy Morris122.00
Brian Hoyer3-2-0.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Deion Branch8101511
Wes Welker8131150
Rob Gronkowski56431
Brandon Tate23400
Aaron Hernandez24190
Danny Woodhead2310
BenJarvus Green-Ellis0100

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jay Cutler12/2615202

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Matt Forte9252.80
Jay Cutler22110.50
Chester Taylor310.31

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Earl Bennett37530
Matt Forte26360
Devin Hester24170
Devin Aromashodu11160
Johnny Knox24160
Chester Taylor1280
Greg Olsen1160
Brandon Manumaleuna0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -32.8%4.5%3.0%7.4%7.2%2.8%4.3%

Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Patriots.

Half-point at risk

7.44%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

46.5%

Expected total

43.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.51
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin-0.95