2024 · Week 10

Final

Patriots

New England

QB Drake Maye

19·3

Bears

Chicago

QB Caleb Williams

Soldier Field · outdoors · grass · 60°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

CHI -6.5

Total

37.5

Model margin

+2.0est.

CHI perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Patriots

Bears

Win probability

  • Bears
  • Patriots

How each play moved the game.

Bears winsPatriots wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Patriotsedge mapBears
  • -0.081EPA / play-0.072
  • 42.5%Success rate40.1%
  • -0.020EPA / dropback-0.036
  • -0.187EPA / rush-0.142
  • 7.0%Explosive rate5.9%
  • +1.54CPOE-0.22
  • 35.0%Third-down rate33.1%
  • 54.2%Red-zone TD rate61.1%
  • 1.51Points / drive1.65
  • 2.1%Turnover rate1.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 6–3 since 1999

Meetings average 49.2 points. CHI are 5-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7NE @ CHI24–30CHI
2022 · W7CHI @ NE33–14CHI
2018 · W7NE @ CHI38–31NE
2014 · W8CHI @ NE23–51NE
2010 · W14NE @ CHI36–7NE
2006 · W12CHI @ NE13–17NE
2002 · W10NE @ CHI33–30NE
2000 · W15NE @ CHI17–24CHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNE–CHI
NEQ1 15:0036Punt0–0
CHIQ1 13:2830Punt0–0
NEQ1 11:451054Field goal3–0
CHIQ1 6:19721Punt3–0
NEQ1 1:44325Turnover3–0
CHIQ1 0:3335Punt3–0
NEQ2 13:3033Punt3–0
CHIQ2 11:581155Field goal3–3
NEQ2 7:171070Touchdown10–3
CHIQ2 1:4656Punt10–3
NEQ2 0:35436Field goal13–3
CHIQ3 15:00420Punt13–3
NEQ3 12:07735Punt13–3
CHIQ3 7:5067Punt13–3
NEQ3 4:4939Punt13–3
CHIQ3 2:4234Punt13–3
NEQ3 1:0733Punt13–3
CHIQ3 0:053-1Punt13–3
NEQ4 13:331057Field goal16–3
CHIQ4 7:30822Turnover on downs16–3
NEQ4 4:54631Field goal19–3
CHIQ4 2:1773Turnover on downs19–3
NEQ4 0:3500End of half19–3

Box score

Individual performances

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drake Maye15/2518411

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Rhamondre Stevenson20743.70
Antonio Gibson5265.20
Drake Maye4246.00
JaMycal Hasty6203.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Austin Hooper34640
DeMario Douglas45500
Kayshon Boutte46470
Hunter Henry14140
JaMycal Hasty1140
Rhamondre Stevenson1130
Ja'Lynn Polk1121
K.J. Osborn0100

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Caleb Williams16/3012000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
D'Andre Swift16593.70
Caleb Williams2157.50
DJ Moore133.00
Roschon Johnson1-4-4.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Keenan Allen56440
DJ Moore36240
Rome Odunze36230
Cole Kmet24130
D'Andre Swift1160
DeAndre Carter1150
Roschon Johnson1250

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +6.54.1%2.7%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Patriots.

Half-point at risk

4.69%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.6%

Expected total

43.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.35
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.05