Closing spread
CHI -6.5
Total
37.5
Model margin
+2.0est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bears
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.081EPA / play-0.072
- 42.5%Success rate40.1%
- -0.020EPA / dropback-0.036
- -0.187EPA / rush-0.142
- 7.0%Explosive rate5.9%
- +1.54CPOE-0.22
- 35.0%Third-down rate33.1%
- 54.2%Red-zone TD rate61.1%
- 1.51Points / drive1.65
- 2.1%Turnover rate1.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 6–2 since 1999
Meetings average 48.6 points. CHI are 4-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake Maye | 15/25 | 184 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 20 | 74 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Antonio Gibson | 5 | 26 | 5.2 | 0 |
| Drake Maye | 4 | 24 | 6.0 | 0 |
| JaMycal Hasty | 6 | 20 | 3.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin Hooper | 3 | 4 | 64 | 0 |
| DeMario Douglas | 4 | 5 | 50 | 0 |
| Kayshon Boutte | 4 | 6 | 47 | 0 |
| Hunter Henry | 1 | 4 | 14 | 0 |
| JaMycal Hasty | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Ja'Lynn Polk | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| K.J. Osborn | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Williams | 16/30 | 120 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| D'Andre Swift | 16 | 59 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Caleb Williams | 2 | 15 | 7.5 | 0 |
| DJ Moore | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Roschon Johnson | 1 | -4 | -4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keenan Allen | 5 | 6 | 44 | 0 |
| DJ Moore | 3 | 6 | 24 | 0 |
| Rome Odunze | 3 | 6 | 23 | 0 |
| Cole Kmet | 2 | 4 | 13 | 0 |
| D'Andre Swift | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| DeAndre Carter | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Roschon Johnson | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
4.69%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.6%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.35
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.05