Closing spread
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Total
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Model margin
+10.8est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Patriotsedge mapBears
- -0.092EPA / play+0.361
- 40.8%Success rate53.3%
- +0.127EPA / dropback+0.551
- -0.451EPA / rush+0.143
- 1.4%Explosive rate12.0%
- +5.97CPOE+16.58
- 31.3%Third-down rate71.4%
- 50.0%Red-zone TD rate100.0%
- 1.11Points / drive4.19
- 4.2%Turnover rate1.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 6–2 since 1999
Meetings average 48.6 points. CHI are 4-4 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+8.53
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+10.75