2026 · Week 7

Final

Patriots

New England

QB Drake Maye

24·30

Bears

Chicago

QB Caleb Williams

Soldier Field · outdoors

Closing spread

CHI -3

Total

50.5

Model margin

+2.0est.

CHI perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Patriots

Bears

Win probability

  • Bears
  • Patriots

How each play moved the game.

Bears winsPatriots wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Patriotsedge mapBears
  • +0.057EPA / play+0.052
  • 45.5%Success rate47.0%
  • +0.214EPA / dropback+0.154
  • -0.169EPA / rush-0.082
  • 8.7%Explosive rate9.6%
  • +7.72CPOE+5.30
  • 41.4%Third-down rate44.6%
  • 62.7%Red-zone TD rate51.9%
  • 2.07Points / drive2.27
  • 3.0%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 6–3 since 1999

Meetings average 49.2 points. CHI are 5-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W10NE @ CHI19–3NE
2022 · W7CHI @ NE33–14CHI
2018 · W7NE @ CHI38–31NE
2014 · W8CHI @ NE23–51NE
2010 · W14NE @ CHI36–7NE
2006 · W12CHI @ NE13–17NE
2002 · W10NE @ CHI33–30NE
2000 · W15NE @ CHI17–24CHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNE–CHI
NEQ1 15:00733Turnover on downs0–0
CHIQ1 11:30429Field goal0–3
NEQ1 9:5336Punt0–3
CHIQ1 8:1733Punt0–3
NEQ1 5:4631Punt0–3
CHIQ1 3:38574Touchdown0–10
NEQ1 1:38968Touchdown7–10
CHIQ2 11:33835Field goal7–13
NEQ2 7:04653Turnover7–13
CHIQ2 3:251170Touchdown7–20
NEQ2 0:14266Touchdown14–20
CHIQ3 15:001082Touchdown14–27
NEQ3 9:411090Touchdown21–27
CHIQ3 3:4632Punt21–27
NEQ3 2:50427Punt21–27
CHIQ4 14:531356Missed field goal21–27
NEQ4 7:5733Punt21–27
CHIQ4 6:221155Field goal21–30
NEQ4 1:34533Field goal24–30
CHIQ4 0:3700End of half24–30

Box score

Individual performances

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drake Maye24/3132121

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Drake Maye4266.51
Rhamondre Stevenson6223.70
Corey Kiner4133.30
TreVeyon Henderson393.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Rhamondre Stevenson55931
Hunter Henry77710
Eli Raridon34561
A.J. Brown36480
DeMario Douglas34230
Efton Chism III11160
TreVeyon Henderson22140
Kyle Williams0100

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Caleb Williams22/3330820

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
D'Andre Swift22783.51
Caleb Williams5183.60
Roschon Johnson2136.50
Luther Burden III177.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Luther Burden III441301
Rome Odunze45690
Colston Loveland712691
Cole Kmet33280
D'Andre Swift44120
Kalif Raymond0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +34.1%2.7%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%2.9%

Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Patriots.

Half-point at risk

7.50%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.4%

Expected total

45.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.25
  • Home-field advantage+2.22
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.97