2014 · Week 8

Final

Bears

Chicago

QB Jay Cutler

23·51

Patriots

New England

QB Tom Brady

Gillette Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 54°F · wind 14mph

Closing spread

NE -5.5

Total

51

Model margin

+6.3est.

NE perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bears

Patriots

Win probability

  • Patriots
  • Bears

How each play moved the game.

Patriots winsBears wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bearsedge mapPatriots
  • -0.055EPA / play+0.090
  • 44.2%Success rate46.4%
  • -0.032EPA / dropback+0.173
  • -0.104EPA / rush-0.046
  • 7.1%Explosive rate7.6%
  • -0.14CPOE+1.32
  • 38.4%Third-down rate45.6%
  • 67.3%Red-zone TD rate60.2%
  • 1.62Points / drive2.38
  • 2.8%Turnover rate1.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 6–3 since 1999

Meetings average 49.2 points. NE are 4-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7NE @ CHI24–30CHI
2024 · W10NE @ CHI19–3NE
2022 · W7CHI @ NE33–14CHI
2018 · W7NE @ CHI38–31NE
2010 · W14NE @ CHI36–7NE
2006 · W12CHI @ NE13–17NE
2002 · W10NE @ CHI33–30NE
2000 · W15NE @ CHI17–24CHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCHI–NE
CHIQ1 15:00712Punt0–0
NEQ1 12:03555Touchdown0–7
CHIQ1 9:41620Punt0–7
NEQ1 7:021772Field goal0–10
CHIQ2 14:5735Punt0–10
NEQ2 13:361172Touchdown0–17
CHIQ2 8:09672Touchdown7–17
NEQ2 5:321190Touchdown7–24
CHIQ2 1:5230Punt7–30
NEQ2 1:1119Touchdown7–31
CHIQ2 1:071-5Opp touchdown7–38
CHIQ2 0:55315Turnover7–38
NEQ3 15:00680Touchdown7–45
CHIQ3 12:421155Turnover on downs7–45
NEQ3 6:28418Punt7–45
CHIQ3 4:10780Touchdown15–45
NEQ3 0:541271Field goal15–48
CHIQ4 9:591176Touchdown23–48
NEQ4 5:16621Field goal23–51
CHIQ4 2:09954Turnover on downs23–51
NEQ4 0:2700End of half23–51

Box score

Individual performances

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jay Cutler20/3022731
Jimmy Clausen1/52200

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Matt Forte191146.00
Ka'Deem Carey6335.50
Jay Cutler166.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Martellus Bennett67951
Alshon Jeffery58591
Matt Forte68541
Brandon Marshall310350
Dante Rosario1260

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tom Brady30/3535450
Jimmy Garoppolo3/32200

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jonas Gray17865.10
Shane Vereen5224.40
James White6172.80
Tom Brady200.00
Jimmy Garoppolo1-1-1.00
Timothy Wright1-2-2.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Rob Gronkowski991493
Brandon LaFell11111241
Timothy Wright77611
Shane Vereen35230
Julian Edelman14140
Danny Amendola2250

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +5.53.2%6.1%7.3%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.2%

Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Bears.

Half-point at risk

3.20%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

65.6%

Expected total

45.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.56
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.24
  • Expected margin+6.29