Closing spread
NE -5.5
Total
51
Model margin
+6.3est.
NE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Patriots
- Bears
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.055EPA / play+0.090
- 44.2%Success rate46.4%
- -0.032EPA / dropback+0.173
- -0.104EPA / rush-0.046
- 7.1%Explosive rate7.6%
- -0.14CPOE+1.32
- 38.4%Third-down rate45.6%
- 67.3%Red-zone TD rate60.2%
- 1.62Points / drive2.38
- 2.8%Turnover rate1.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 6–2 since 1999
Meetings average 48.6 points. NE are 4-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Cutler | 20/30 | 227 | 3 | 1 |
| Jimmy Clausen | 1/5 | 22 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Forte | 19 | 114 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Ka'Deem Carey | 6 | 33 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Jay Cutler | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Martellus Bennett | 6 | 7 | 95 | 1 |
| Alshon Jeffery | 5 | 8 | 59 | 1 |
| Matt Forte | 6 | 8 | 54 | 1 |
| Brandon Marshall | 3 | 10 | 35 | 0 |
| Dante Rosario | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 30/35 | 354 | 5 | 0 |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 3/3 | 22 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonas Gray | 17 | 86 | 5.1 | 0 |
| Shane Vereen | 5 | 22 | 4.4 | 0 |
| James White | 6 | 17 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Timothy Wright | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rob Gronkowski | 9 | 9 | 149 | 3 |
| Brandon LaFell | 11 | 11 | 124 | 1 |
| Timothy Wright | 7 | 7 | 61 | 1 |
| Shane Vereen | 3 | 5 | 23 | 0 |
| Julian Edelman | 1 | 4 | 14 | 0 |
| Danny Amendola | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Bears.
Half-point at risk
3.20%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
65.6%
Expected total
45.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.56
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin+6.29