Closing spread
CHI -2
Total
36.5
Model margin
+2.8est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Bears
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.079EPA / play-0.144
- 38.3%Success rate38.4%
- -0.007EPA / dropback-0.138
- -0.195EPA / rush-0.156
- 5.5%Explosive rate6.1%
- 35.1%Third-down rate29.8%
- 42.9%Red-zone TD rate35.6%
- 1.30Points / drive0.80
- 2.3%Turnover rate2.7%
- +0.010EPA / play allowed-0.018
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 6–3 since 1999
Meetings average 49.2 points. CHI are 5-4 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | NE–CHI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NE | Q1 15:00 | 4 | 3 | Punt | 0–0 |
| CHI | Q1 13:27 | 11 | 50 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| NE | Q1 6:06 | 4 | 0 | Punt | 0–3 |
| CHI | Q1 5:04 | 6 | 23 | Punt | 0–3 |
| NE | Q1 2:26 | 12 | 83 | Touchdown | 7–3 |
| CHI | Q2 13:10 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 7–3 |
| NE | Q2 11:06 | 3 | 11 | Punt | 7–3 |
| CHI | Q2 9:00 | 2 | 17 | Turnover | 7–3 |
| NE | Q2 8:10 | 6 | 11 | Field goal | 10–3 |
| CHI | Q2 5:31 | 10 | 66 | Touchdown | 10–10 |
| NE | Q2 0:10 | 1 | -1 | End of half | 10–10 |
| CHI | Q3 15:00 | 7 | 64 | Touchdown | 10–17 |
| NE | Q3 10:52 | 3 | -9 | Punt | 10–17 |
| CHI | Q3 9:23 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 10–17 |
| NE | Q3 7:23 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 10–17 |
| CHI | Q3 5:51 | 11 | 56 | Touchdown | 10–24 |
| NE | Q4 14:56 | 13 | 73 | Touchdown | 17–24 |
| CHI | Q4 10:53 | 4 | 13 | Punt | 17–24 |
| NE | Q4 9:08 | 6 | 12 | Punt | 17–24 |
| CHI | Q4 7:20 | 5 | 21 | Punt | 17–24 |
| NE | Q4 4:16 | 5 | 25 | Turnover on downs | 17–24 |
| CHI | Q4 3:09 | 5 | 18 | Missed field goal | 17–24 |
| NE | Q4 1:05 | 5 | 31 | End of half | 17–24 |
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Bledsoe | 25/46 | 225 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.R. Redmond | 6 | 18 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Raymont Harris | 3 | 14 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Drew Bledsoe | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Kevin Faulk | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terry Glenn | 5 | 15 | 63 | 1 |
| Troy Brown | 5 | 7 | 46 | 1 |
| Jermaine Wiggins | 4 | 7 | 39 | 0 |
| Kevin Faulk | 2 | 2 | 27 | 0 |
| Curtis Jackson | 3 | 5 | 27 | 0 |
| J.R. Redmond | 4 | 5 | 22 | 0 |
| Raymont Harris | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Tony Simmons | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shane Matthews | 22/27 | 239 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Allen | 37 | 97 | 2.6 | 1 |
| Marlon Barnes | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Shane Matthews | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eddie Kennison | 8 | 8 | 100 | 1 |
| Kaseem Sinceno | 3 | 4 | 36 | 0 |
| James Allen | 3 | 4 | 27 | 1 |
| Marty Booker | 2 | 2 | 24 | 0 |
| D'Wayne Bates | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
| Scott Dragos | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Macey Brooks | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Glyn Milburn | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Dez White | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
2.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.7%
Expected total
44.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.89
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+1.08
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+2.84