Closing spread
NE -1
Total
49
Model margin
+1.3est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Bears
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.090EPA / play+0.039
- 47.3%Success rate46.3%
- +0.181EPA / dropback+0.147
- -0.031EPA / rush-0.119
- 10.7%Explosive rate8.0%
- +1.03CPOE+2.41
- 41.8%Third-down rate41.4%
- 66.1%Red-zone TD rate67.8%
- 2.32Points / drive1.96
- 1.5%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 6–2 since 1999
Meetings average 48.6 points. CHI are 4-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 25/36 | 277 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James White | 11 | 40 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Kenjon Barner | 10 | 36 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Sony Michel | 4 | 22 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Gordon | 4 | 7 | 100 | 0 |
| Chris Hogan | 6 | 7 | 63 | 0 |
| James White | 8 | 10 | 57 | 2 |
| Julian Edelman | 5 | 8 | 36 | 1 |
| Sony Michel | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Phillip Dorsett | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mitchell Trubisky | 26/50 | 333 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mitchell Trubisky | 6 | 81 | 13.5 | 1 |
| Jordan Howard | 12 | 39 | 3.3 | 1 |
| Tarik Cohen | 6 | 14 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Taylor Gabriel | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trey Burton | 9 | 11 | 126 | 1 |
| Tarik Cohen | 8 | 13 | 69 | 1 |
| Kevin White | 2 | 2 | 64 | 0 |
| Anthony Miller | 2 | 7 | 35 | 0 |
| Taylor Gabriel | 3 | 4 | 26 | 0 |
| Jordan Howard | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Allen Robinson | 1 | 5 | 4 | 0 |
| Bradley Sowell | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Josh Bellamy | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Dion Sims | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
2.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.5%
Expected total
41.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.46
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.28