2018 · Week 7

Final

Patriots

New England

QB Tom Brady

38·31

Bears

Chicago

QB Mitch Trubisky

Soldier Field · outdoors · grass · 44°F · wind 9mph

Closing spread

NE -1

Total

49

Model margin

+1.3est.

CHI perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Patriots

Bears

Win probability

  • Bears
  • Patriots

How each play moved the game.

Bears winsPatriots wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Patriotsedge mapBears
  • +0.090EPA / play+0.039
  • 47.3%Success rate46.3%
  • +0.181EPA / dropback+0.147
  • -0.031EPA / rush-0.119
  • 10.7%Explosive rate8.0%
  • +1.03CPOE+2.41
  • 41.8%Third-down rate41.4%
  • 66.1%Red-zone TD rate67.8%
  • 2.32Points / drive1.96
  • 1.5%Turnover rate2.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 6–3 since 1999

Meetings average 49.2 points. CHI are 5-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7NE @ CHI24–30CHI
2024 · W10NE @ CHI19–3NE
2022 · W7CHI @ NE33–14CHI
2014 · W8CHI @ NE23–51NE
2010 · W14NE @ CHI36–7NE
2006 · W12CHI @ NE13–17NE
2002 · W10NE @ CHI33–30NE
2000 · W15NE @ CHI17–24CHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNE–CHI
NEQ1 15:00875Touchdown7–0
CHIQ1 11:00618Punt7–0
NEQ1 8:3538Punt7–0
CHIQ1 7:34735Field goal7–3
NEQ1 3:5000Touchdown7–3
CHIQ1 3:44524Touchdown7–10
NEQ1 0:59318Turnover7–10
CHIQ2 14:511128Touchdown13–17
NEQ2 11:0500Touchdown14–17
CHIQ2 10:4834Punt14–17
NEQ2 9:461264Touchdown21–17
CHIQ2 3:58618Punt21–17
NEQ2 1:38520Punt21–17
CHIQ2 0:14342End of half21–17
CHIQ3 15:00763Touchdown21–24
NEQ3 12:04849Field goal24–24
CHIQ3 7:4854Opp touchdown31–24
CHIQ3 5:53634Turnover31–24
NEQ3 3:38517Punt31–24
CHIQ3 1:24856Turnover31–24
NEQ4 13:05996Touchdown38–24
CHIQ4 8:403-10Punt38–24
NEQ4 7:4738Turnover38–24
CHIQ4 6:24758Touchdown38–31
NEQ4 4:13826Punt38–31
CHIQ4 0:24479End of half38–31

Box score

Individual performances

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tom Brady25/3627731

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
James White11403.60
Kenjon Barner10363.60
Sony Michel4225.50
Tom Brady166.00
Cordarrelle Patterson144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Josh Gordon471000
Chris Hogan67630
James White810572
Julian Edelman58361
Sony Michel11130
Phillip Dorsett1180

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mitchell Trubisky26/5033322

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Mitchell Trubisky68113.51
Jordan Howard12393.31
Tarik Cohen6142.30
Taylor Gabriel100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Trey Burton9111261
Tarik Cohen813691
Kevin White22640
Anthony Miller27350
Taylor Gabriel34260
Jordan Howard1190
Allen Robinson1540
Bradley Sowell0100
Josh Bellamy0300
Dion Sims0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -14.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Patriots.

Half-point at risk

2.13%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.5%

Expected total

41.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.46
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.28