2002 · Week 10

Final

Patriots

New England

QB Tom Brady

33·30

Bears

Chicago

QB Chris Chandler

Memorial Stadium (Champaign) · outdoors · astroplay · 60°F · wind 16mph

Closing spread

NE -5

Total

39

Model margin

+0.4est.

CHI perspective

Push chance

1.8%est.

Win probability

  • Bears
  • Patriots

How each play moved the game.

Bears winsPatriots wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Patriotsedge mapBears
  • -0.000EPA / play-0.129
  • 43.6%Success rate40.0%
  • +0.037EPA / dropback-0.089
  • -0.064EPA / rush-0.197
  • 6.3%Explosive rate7.5%
  • 43.1%Third-down rate33.7%
  • 61.8%Red-zone TD rate64.5%
  • 1.69Points / drive1.35
  • 2.1%Turnover rate3.2%
  • +0.013EPA / play allowed-0.001

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 6–3 since 1999

Meetings average 49.2 points. CHI are 5-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7NE @ CHI24–30CHI
2024 · W10NE @ CHI19–3NE
2022 · W7CHI @ NE33–14CHI
2018 · W7NE @ CHI38–31NE
2014 · W8CHI @ NE23–51NE
2010 · W14NE @ CHI36–7NE
2006 · W12CHI @ NE13–17NE
2000 · W15NE @ CHI17–24CHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNE–CHI
NEQ1 15:0036Punt0–0
CHIQ1 12:59614Punt0–0
NEQ1 9:46414Punt0–0
CHIQ1 7:051246Field goal0–3
NEQ2 14:51931Field goal3–3
CHIQ2 10:15956Field goal3–6
NEQ2 5:31418Punt3–6
CHIQ2 3:20521Punt3–6
NEQ2 1:28655Field goal6–6
CHIQ2 0:0400End of half6–6
CHIQ3 15:0030Punt6–6
NEQ3 13:482-9Turnover6–6
CHIQ3 13:01214Touchdown6–13
NEQ3 12:2138Punt6–19
CHIQ3 10:18144Touchdown6–20
NEQ3 10:0939Punt6–20
CHIQ3 8:5232Punt6–20
NEQ3 7:5420Turnover6–20
CHIQ3 7:19336Touchdown6–27
NEQ3 6:42875Touchdown13–27
CHIQ3 3:0410Turnover13–27
NEQ3 2:4832Field goal16–27
CHIQ3 1:5033Punt16–27
NEQ3 0:461569Field goal19–27
CHIQ4 11:02838Field goal19–30
NEQ4 5:22763Touchdown25–30
CHIQ4 2:4638Punt25–30
NEQ4 1:50856Touchdown33–30
CHIQ4 0:21317End of half33–30

Box score

Individual performances

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tom Brady36/5532831

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Antowain Smith10414.10
Kevin Faulk5214.20
Tom Brady3165.30
Damon Huard144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kevin Faulk781092
Troy Brown1117900
David Patten45511
Antowain Smith44240
Deion Branch1290
David Givens1360
Christian Fauria1350
Cameron Cleeland1440
Daniel Graham2310

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jim Miller8/187211
Marty Booker1/14410
Chris Chandler6/104000
Leon Johnson1/12700

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Anthony Thomas21994.71
Chris Chandler2168.00
Leon Johnson5102.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Marty Booker48650
Marcus Robinson34631
Stanley Pritchett46261
John Davis24170
Dez White2580
Anthony Thomas1140
Leon Johnson0100
Ahmad Merritt0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -52.6%4.3%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Patriots.

Half-point at risk

1.83%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

50.3%

Expected total

44.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.48
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment-1.64
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.44