Closing spread
NE -5
Total
39
Model margin
+0.4est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
1.8%est.
Win probability
- Bears
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.000EPA / play-0.129
- 43.6%Success rate40.0%
- +0.037EPA / dropback-0.089
- -0.064EPA / rush-0.197
- 6.3%Explosive rate7.5%
- 43.1%Third-down rate33.7%
- 61.8%Red-zone TD rate64.5%
- 1.69Points / drive1.35
- 2.1%Turnover rate3.2%
- +0.013EPA / play allowed-0.001
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 6–2 since 1999
Meetings average 48.6 points. CHI are 4-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 36/55 | 328 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antowain Smith | 10 | 41 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Kevin Faulk | 5 | 21 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 3 | 16 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Damon Huard | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Faulk | 7 | 8 | 109 | 2 |
| Troy Brown | 11 | 17 | 90 | 0 |
| David Patten | 4 | 5 | 51 | 1 |
| Antowain Smith | 4 | 4 | 24 | 0 |
| Deion Branch | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| David Givens | 1 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| Christian Fauria | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
| Cameron Cleeland | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0 |
| Daniel Graham | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jim Miller | 8/18 | 72 | 1 | 1 |
| Marty Booker | 1/1 | 44 | 1 | 0 |
| Chris Chandler | 6/10 | 40 | 0 | 0 |
| Leon Johnson | 1/1 | 27 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Thomas | 21 | 99 | 4.7 | 1 |
| Chris Chandler | 2 | 16 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Leon Johnson | 5 | 10 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marty Booker | 4 | 8 | 65 | 0 |
| Marcus Robinson | 3 | 4 | 63 | 1 |
| Stanley Pritchett | 4 | 6 | 26 | 1 |
| John Davis | 2 | 4 | 17 | 0 |
| Dez White | 2 | 5 | 8 | 0 |
| Anthony Thomas | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Leon Johnson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Ahmad Merritt | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
1.83%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.3%
Expected total
44.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.48
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-1.64
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.44