Closing spread
NE -4.5
Total
38
Model margin
+3.9est.
NE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Patriots
- Bears
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.046EPA / play+0.063
- 40.3%Success rate44.2%
- -0.039EPA / dropback+0.118
- -0.054EPA / rush-0.007
- 9.4%Explosive rate9.2%
- -3.50CPOE+0.89
- 37.7%Third-down rate43.7%
- 50.6%Red-zone TD rate58.5%
- 1.80Points / drive1.82
- 3.0%Turnover rate2.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 6–2 since 1999
Meetings average 48.6 points. NE are 4-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rex Grossman | 15/34 | 176 | 0 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Jones | 23 | 99 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Cedric Benson | 10 | 46 | 4.6 | 1 |
| Jason McKie | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Rex Grossman | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 22/33 | 269 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corey Dillon | 11 | 40 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Laurence Maroney | 13 | 33 | 2.5 | 1 |
| Tom Brady | 6 | 12 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Chad Jackson | 1 | -8 | -8.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Bears.
Half-point at risk
1.97%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.6%
Expected total
42.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.37
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.93