2022 · Week 7 · Division

Final

Browns

Cleveland

QB Jacoby Brissett

20·23

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Lamar Jackson

M&T Bank Stadium · outdoors · grass

Closing spread

BAL -6.5

Total

46

Model margin

+1.1est.

BAL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Browns

Ravens

Win probability

  • Ravens
  • Browns

How each play moved the game.

Ravens winsBrowns wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Brownsedge mapRavens
  • +0.013EPA / play+0.004
  • 44.1%Success rate45.3%
  • +0.021EPA / dropback-0.020
  • +0.002EPA / rush+0.034
  • 9.8%Explosive rate10.1%
  • +1.05CPOE-1.40
  • 39.0%Third-down rate42.2%
  • 56.3%Red-zone TD rate46.9%
  • 1.91Points / drive1.87
  • 1.7%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 39–16 since 1999

Meetings average 40.2 points. BAL are 29-25-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6BAL @ CLE10–13CLE
2025 · W11BAL @ CLE23–16BAL
2025 · W2CLE @ BAL17–41BAL
2024 · W18CLE @ BAL10–35BAL
2024 · W8BAL @ CLE24–29CLE
2023 · W10CLE @ BAL33–31CLE
2023 · W4BAL @ CLE28–3BAL
2022 · W15BAL @ CLE3–13CLE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCLE–BAL
CLEQ1 15:001175Touchdown7–0
BALQ1 8:23861Field goal7–3
CLEQ1 3:27457Field goal10–3
BALQ1 0:1830Punt10–3
CLEQ2 14:063-4Punt10–3
BALQ2 11:4335Field goal10–6
CLEQ2 10:0549Punt10–6
BALQ2 8:081080Touchdown10–13
CLEQ2 1:57827Punt10–13
BALQ2 0:2500End of half10–13
BALQ3 15:003-19Punt10–13
CLEQ3 13:233-15Turnover10–13
BALQ3 11:57920Touchdown10–20
CLEQ3 7:391033Field goal13–20
BALQ3 2:401253Field goal13–23
CLEQ4 11:24775Touchdown20–23
BALQ4 9:001255Turnover20–23
CLEQ4 3:12757Missed field goal20–23
BALQ4 1:5930Punt20–23
CLEQ4 0:16322Turnover20–23

Box score

Individual performances

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jacoby Brissett22/2725800

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Nick Chubb16915.71
Jacoby Brissett3186.00
Kareem Hunt540.81

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Amari Cooper34740
David Njoku77710
Donovan Peoples-Jones66710
Nick Chubb23160
Harrison Bryant22150
David Bell1170
Kareem Hunt1240

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Lamar Jackson9/1612000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Gus Edwards16664.12
Lamar Jackson10595.90
Justice Hill5265.20
Kenyan Drake1150.50
Mark Andrews144.00
Patrick Ricard100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Devin Duvernay23420
Rashod Bateman45420
Patrick Ricard22200
Isaiah Likely11160
Kenyan Drake0100
Gus Edwards0100
Mark Andrews0200
Josh Oliver0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +6.54.2%2.8%7.2%7.4%3.0%4.6%2.8%

Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Browns.

Half-point at risk

4.56%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

51.9%

Expected total

43.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.64
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.06