Closing spread
BAL -6.5
Total
46
Model margin
+1.1est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Ravens
- Browns
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.013EPA / play+0.004
- 44.1%Success rate45.3%
- +0.021EPA / dropback-0.020
- +0.002EPA / rush+0.034
- 9.8%Explosive rate10.1%
- +1.05CPOE-1.40
- 39.0%Third-down rate42.2%
- 56.3%Red-zone TD rate46.9%
- 1.91Points / drive1.87
- 1.7%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 39–15 since 1999
BAL have won 3 straight. Meetings average 40.6 points. BAL are 29-24-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacoby Brissett | 22/27 | 258 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Chubb | 16 | 91 | 5.7 | 1 |
| Jacoby Brissett | 3 | 18 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Kareem Hunt | 5 | 4 | 0.8 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amari Cooper | 3 | 4 | 74 | 0 |
| David Njoku | 7 | 7 | 71 | 0 |
| Donovan Peoples-Jones | 6 | 6 | 71 | 0 |
| Nick Chubb | 2 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Harrison Bryant | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| David Bell | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Kareem Hunt | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | 9/16 | 120 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gus Edwards | 16 | 66 | 4.1 | 2 |
| Lamar Jackson | 10 | 59 | 5.9 | 0 |
| Justice Hill | 5 | 26 | 5.2 | 0 |
| Kenyan Drake | 11 | 5 | 0.5 | 0 |
| Mark Andrews | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Patrick Ricard | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devin Duvernay | 2 | 3 | 42 | 0 |
| Rashod Bateman | 4 | 5 | 42 | 0 |
| Patrick Ricard | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| Isaiah Likely | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
| Kenyan Drake | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Gus Edwards | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Mark Andrews | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Josh Oliver | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Browns.
Half-point at risk
4.56%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.9%
Expected total
43.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.64
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.06