Closing spread
CLE -6.5
Total
38
Model margin
+4.8est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Browns
- Bengals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.063EPA / play+0.014
- 44.6%Success rate43.7%
- +0.161EPA / dropback+0.013
- -0.094EPA / rush+0.015
- 9.5%Explosive rate11.2%
- +5.14CPOE-2.26
- 40.1%Third-down rate39.1%
- 71.5%Red-zone TD rate70.6%
- 2.38Points / drive1.81
- 1.8%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CIN lead 32–22 since 1999
Meetings average 42.7 points. CLE are 24-29-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Allen | 15/29 | 136 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trayveon Williams | 9 | 38 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Chris Evans | 7 | 35 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Brandon Allen | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Stanley Morgan | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Taylor | 2 | 3 | 41 | 0 |
| Ja'Marr Chase | 2 | 4 | 26 | 0 |
| Chris Evans | 4 | 5 | 24 | 1 |
| Mitchell Wilcox | 3 | 5 | 16 | 0 |
| Trenton Irwin | 1 | 4 | 9 | 0 |
| Stanley Morgan | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Drew Sample | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Trayveon Williams | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Mike Thomas | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Case Keenum | 17/24 | 176 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| D'Ernest Johnson | 25 | 123 | 4.9 | 1 |
| Nick Chubb | 9 | 58 | 6.4 | 0 |
| Case Keenum | 5 | 15 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Demetric Felton | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Anthony Schwartz | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jarvis Landry | 6 | 8 | 75 | 1 |
| Donovan Peoples-Jones | 3 | 4 | 38 | 0 |
| Demetric Felton | 2 | 2 | 18 | 1 |
| Anthony Schwartz | 1 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| David Njoku | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| D'Ernest Johnson | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Harrison Bryant | 1 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Nick Chubb | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
4.93%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.9%
Expected total
45.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.58
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+3.79
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+4.83