2022 · Week 8 · Division

Final

Patriots

New England

QB Mac Jones

22·17

Jets

New York

QB Zach Wilson

MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf

Closing spread

NE -3

Total

40

Model margin

-0.1est.

NYJ perspective

Push chance

7.4%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Patriots

Jets

Win probability

  • Jets
  • Patriots

How each play moved the game.

Jets winsPatriots wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Patriotsedge mapJets
  • -0.047EPA / play-0.086
  • 41.1%Success rate39.1%
  • -0.026EPA / dropback-0.081
  • -0.082EPA / rush-0.093
  • 10.3%Explosive rate8.2%
  • +0.93CPOE-4.97
  • 35.3%Third-down rate34.3%
  • 56.0%Red-zone TD rate39.8%
  • 1.54Points / drive1.41
  • 2.3%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 43–14 since 1999

NE have won 4 straight. Meetings average 41.2 points. NYJ are 23-32-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6NYJ @ NE19–26NE
2025 · W17NE @ NYJ42–10NE
2025 · W11NYJ @ NE14–27NE
2024 · W8NYJ @ NE22–25NE
2024 · W3NE @ NYJ3–24NYJ
2023 · W18NYJ @ NE17–3NYJ
2023 · W3NE @ NYJ15–10NE
2022 · W11NYJ @ NE3–10NE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNE–NYJ
NYJQ1 15:0035Punt0–0
NEQ1 14:053-3Punt0–0
NYJQ1 12:43982Field goal0–3
NEQ1 8:141462Field goal3–3
NYJQ2 15:00662Touchdown3–10
NEQ2 12:00625Turnover3–10
NYJQ2 9:2439Punt3–10
NEQ2 7:491370Turnover on downs3–10
NYJQ2 1:55522Turnover3–10
NEQ2 0:42613Field goal6–10
NEQ3 15:00662Touchdown13–10
NYJQ3 12:07648Missed field goal13–10
NEQ3 9:29934Field goal16–10
NYJQ3 5:2342Punt16–10
NEQ3 3:4930Field goal19–10
NYJQ3 2:3910Turnover19–10
NEQ3 2:2934Punt19–10
NYJQ3 0:27726Turnover19–10
NEQ4 11:5834Field goal22–10
NYJQ4 10:35640Turnover on downs22–10
NEQ4 8:4936Punt22–10
NYJQ4 7:0933Punt22–10
NEQ4 5:16517Punt22–10
NYJQ4 3:35688Touchdown22–17
NEQ4 1:5100End of half22–17

Box score

Individual performances

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mac Jones24/3519411

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Rhamondre Stevenson16714.40
Damien Harris11373.40
Mac Jones7192.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Rhamondre Stevenson77720
Jakobi Meyers913601
Hunter Henry11220
Damien Harris22150
Tyquan Thornton12130
Jonnu Smith34100
Nelson Agholor1120
DeVante Parker0100
Kendrick Bourne0100

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Zach Wilson20/4135523

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Michael Carter7263.70
James Robinson5173.40
Ty Johnson263.00
Zach Wilson122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Garrett Wilson671150
Tyler Conklin610792
Denzel Mims23760
Michael Carter47350
C.J. Uzomah11270
Jeff Smith11230
Braxton Berrios0100
Ty Johnson0200
James Robinson0100
Elijah Moore0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -32.7%4.4%2.9%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Patriots.

Half-point at risk

7.36%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

48.9%

Expected total

43.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.86
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin-0.08