Closing spread
NE -3
Total
40
Model margin
-0.1est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
7.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Jets
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.047EPA / play-0.086
- 41.1%Success rate39.1%
- -0.026EPA / dropback-0.081
- -0.082EPA / rush-0.093
- 10.3%Explosive rate8.2%
- +0.93CPOE-4.97
- 35.3%Third-down rate34.3%
- 56.0%Red-zone TD rate39.8%
- 1.54Points / drive1.41
- 2.3%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 42–14 since 1999
NE have won 3 straight. Meetings average 41.2 points. NYJ are 22-32-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mac Jones | 24/35 | 194 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 16 | 71 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Damien Harris | 11 | 37 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Mac Jones | 7 | 19 | 2.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 7 | 7 | 72 | 0 |
| Jakobi Meyers | 9 | 13 | 60 | 1 |
| Hunter Henry | 1 | 1 | 22 | 0 |
| Damien Harris | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Tyquan Thornton | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Jonnu Smith | 3 | 4 | 10 | 0 |
| Nelson Agholor | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| DeVante Parker | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Kendrick Bourne | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Wilson | 20/41 | 355 | 2 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Carter | 7 | 26 | 3.7 | 0 |
| James Robinson | 5 | 17 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Ty Johnson | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Zach Wilson | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Garrett Wilson | 6 | 7 | 115 | 0 |
| Tyler Conklin | 6 | 10 | 79 | 2 |
| Denzel Mims | 2 | 3 | 76 | 0 |
| Michael Carter | 4 | 7 | 35 | 0 |
| C.J. Uzomah | 1 | 1 | 27 | 0 |
| Jeff Smith | 1 | 1 | 23 | 0 |
| Braxton Berrios | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Ty Johnson | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| James Robinson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Elijah Moore | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
7.36%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.9%
Expected total
43.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.86
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin-0.08