Closing spread
TEN -1
Total
39
Model margin
+5.9est.
HOU perspective
Push chance
1.9%est.
Win probability
- Texans
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.066EPA / play-0.167
- 41.2%Success rate38.0%
- -0.034EPA / dropback-0.147
- -0.104EPA / rush-0.204
- 8.9%Explosive rate7.6%
- -0.94CPOE-4.69
- 37.1%Third-down rate30.1%
- 67.5%Red-zone TD rate52.2%
- 1.46Points / drive1.17
- 2.0%Turnover rate2.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 24–24 since 1999
HOU have won 3 straight. Meetings average 43.7 points. HOU are 28-19-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malik Willis | 6/10 | 55 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Henry | 32 | 219 | 6.8 | 2 |
| Dontrell Hilliard | 8 | 83 | 10.4 | 0 |
| Malik Willis | 5 | 12 | 2.4 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Woods | 2 | 2 | 26 | 0 |
| Dontrell Hilliard | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Derrick Henry | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Austin Hooper | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Chig Okonkwo | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| Cody Hollister | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davis Mills | 17/29 | 152 | 1 | 1 |
| Rex Burkhead | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dameon Pierce | 15 | 35 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Davis Mills | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandin Cooks | 4 | 6 | 73 | 0 |
| O.J. Howard | 2 | 3 | 24 | 0 |
| Brevin Jordan | 2 | 5 | 19 | 0 |
| Dameon Pierce | 3 | 5 | 16 | 1 |
| Troy Hairston | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Phillip Dorsett | 1 | 5 | 6 | 0 |
| Jordan Akins | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Rex Burkhead | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Dare Ogunbowale | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
1.93%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
64.6%
Expected total
42.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.48
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+4.66
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.88