2022 · Week 8 · Division

Final

Titans

Tennessee

QB Malik Willis

17·10

Texans

Houston

QB Davis Mills

NRG Stadium · closed · astroturf

Closing spread

TEN -1

Total

39

Model margin

+5.9est.

HOU perspective

Push chance

1.9%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Titans

Texans

Win probability

  • Texans
  • Titans

How each play moved the game.

Texans winsTitans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Titansedge mapTexans
  • -0.066EPA / play-0.167
  • 41.2%Success rate38.0%
  • -0.034EPA / dropback-0.147
  • -0.104EPA / rush-0.204
  • 8.9%Explosive rate7.6%
  • -0.94CPOE-4.69
  • 37.1%Third-down rate30.1%
  • 67.5%Red-zone TD rate52.2%
  • 1.46Points / drive1.17
  • 2.0%Turnover rate2.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

HOU lead 25–24 since 1999

HOU have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.4 points. HOU are 29-19-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5HOU @ TEN26–3HOU
2025 · W11HOU @ TEN16–13HOU
2025 · W4TEN @ HOU0–26HOU
2024 · W18HOU @ TEN23–14HOU
2024 · W12TEN @ HOU32–27TEN
2023 · W17TEN @ HOU3–26HOU
2023 · W15HOU @ TEN19–16HOU
2022 · W16HOU @ TEN19–14HOU

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTEN–HOU
TENQ1 15:00540Missed field goal0–0
HOUQ1 11:27828Turnover0–0
TENQ1 6:4635Punt0–0
HOUQ1 4:2732Punt0–0
HOUQ1 2:494-3Punt0–0
TENQ1 1:22738Turnover0–0
HOUQ2 11:513-13Field goal0–3
TENQ2 10:40523Punt0–3
HOUQ2 6:5730Punt0–3
TENQ2 5:13337Touchdown7–3
HOUQ2 4:20422Punt7–3
TENQ2 1:53840Punt7–3
HOUQ2 0:1400End of half7–3
HOUQ3 15:00412Punt7–3
TENQ3 12:50980Touchdown14–3
HOUQ3 6:31517Punt14–3
TENQ3 3:241181Field goal17–3
HOUQ4 11:0845Punt17–3
TENQ4 9:0735Punt17–3
HOUQ4 7:033-3Punt17–3
TENQ4 6:1736Punt17–3
HOUQ4 4:031295Touchdown17–10
TENQ4 0:1700End of half17–10

Box score

Individual performances

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Malik Willis6/105501

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Derrick Henry322196.82
Dontrell Hilliard88310.40
Malik Willis5122.40

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Robert Woods22260
Dontrell Hilliard11120
Derrick Henry1190
Austin Hooper1150
Chig Okonkwo1230
Cody Hollister0100

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Davis Mills17/2915211
Rex Burkhead0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Dameon Pierce15352.30
Davis Mills382.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brandin Cooks46730
O.J. Howard23240
Brevin Jordan25190
Dameon Pierce35161
Troy Hairston2270
Phillip Dorsett1560
Jordan Akins1250
Rex Burkhead1120
Dare Ogunbowale1100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -13.3%6.2%7.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.1%

Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Titans.

Half-point at risk

1.93%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

64.6%

Expected total

42.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.48
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+4.66
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+5.88