Closing spread
GB -4
Total
49.5
Model margin
+2.1est.
DET perspective
Push chance
2.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Lions
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.017EPA / play+0.073
- 46.2%Success rate45.7%
- +0.035EPA / dropback+0.173
- -0.009EPA / rush-0.070
- 9.7%Explosive rate9.5%
- +0.52CPOE-1.27
- 39.3%Third-down rate41.5%
- 57.7%Red-zone TD rate64.6%
- 1.91Points / drive2.36
- 1.9%Turnover rate1.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 36–18 since 1999
GB have won 2 straight. Meetings average 45.9 points. DET are 26-27-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 23/43 | 291 | 1 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 4 | 40 | 10.0 | 0 |
| AJ Dillon | 11 | 34 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Aaron Jones | 9 | 25 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Kylin Hill | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Allen Lazard | 4 | 10 | 87 | 1 |
| Josiah Deguara | 5 | 5 | 41 | 0 |
| Samori Toure | 2 | 4 | 34 | 0 |
| Robert Tonyan | 3 | 4 | 29 | 0 |
| Christian Watson | 2 | 2 | 24 | 0 |
| Aaron Jones | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| Marcedes Lewis | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 |
| Romeo Doubs | 1 | 1 | 18 | 0 |
| AJ Dillon | 2 | 4 | 10 | 0 |
| Sammy Watkins | 1 | 5 | 9 | 0 |
| Amari Rodgers | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff | 14/26 | 137 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamaal Williams | 24 | 81 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Justin Jackson | 4 | 27 | 6.8 | 0 |
| D'Andre Swift | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Jared Goff | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 4 | 9 | 55 | 0 |
| D'Andre Swift | 3 | 4 | 40 | 0 |
| Kalif Raymond | 3 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Tom Kennedy | 1 | 4 | 16 | 0 |
| James Mitchell | 2 | 2 | 8 | 1 |
| Shane Zylstra | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Brock Wright | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
2.32%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.9%
Expected total
46.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.45
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.15