2022 · Week 9 · Division

Final

Packers

Green Bay

QB Aaron Rodgers

9·15

Lions

Detroit

QB Jared Goff

Ford Field · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

GB -4

Total

49.5

Model margin

+2.1est.

DET perspective

Push chance

2.3%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Packers

Lions

Win probability

  • Lions
  • Packers

How each play moved the game.

Lions winsPackers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Packersedge mapLions
  • +0.017EPA / play+0.073
  • 46.2%Success rate45.7%
  • +0.035EPA / dropback+0.173
  • -0.009EPA / rush-0.070
  • 9.7%Explosive rate9.5%
  • +0.52CPOE-1.27
  • 39.3%Third-down rate41.5%
  • 57.7%Red-zone TD rate64.6%
  • 1.91Points / drive2.36
  • 1.9%Turnover rate1.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

GB lead 36–19 since 1999

Meetings average 45.8 points. DET are 26-28-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7GB @ DET17–20DET
2025 · W13GB @ DET31–24GB
2025 · W1DET @ GB13–27GB
2024 · W14GB @ DET31–34DET
2024 · W9DET @ GB24–14DET
2023 · W12GB @ DET29–22GB
2023 · W4DET @ GB34–20DET
2022 · W18DET @ GB20–16DET

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultGB–DET
DETQ1 15:00955Turnover on downs0–0
GBQ1 10:511388Turnover0–0
DETQ1 4:1943Punt0–0
GBQ1 3:22857Turnover0–0
DETQ2 14:56847Punt0–0
GBQ2 10:041261Turnover on downs0–0
DETQ2 2:35846Touchdown0–8
GBQ2 0:1500End of half0–8
GBQ3 15:00623Punt0–8
DETQ3 11:5247Turnover0–8
GBQ3 10:0621Turnover0–8
DETQ3 9:153-2Punt0–8
GBQ3 8:15749Touchdown6–8
DETQ3 4:531470Touchdown6–15
GBQ4 14:511671Field goal9–15
DETQ4 6:361029Turnover on downs9–15
GBQ4 2:00840Turnover on downs9–15
DETQ4 0:3600End of half9–15

Box score

Individual performances

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers23/4329113

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Aaron Rodgers44010.00
AJ Dillon11343.10
Aaron Jones9252.80
Kylin Hill177.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Allen Lazard410871
Josiah Deguara55410
Samori Toure24340
Robert Tonyan34290
Christian Watson22240
Aaron Jones22200
Marcedes Lewis11190
Romeo Doubs11180
AJ Dillon24100
Sammy Watkins1590
Amari Rodgers0100

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jared Goff14/2613721

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jamaal Williams24813.40
Justin Jackson4276.80
D'Andre Swift2105.00
Jared Goff1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Amon-Ra St. Brown49550
D'Andre Swift34400
Kalif Raymond33170
Tom Kennedy14160
James Mitchell2281
Shane Zylstra1111
Brock Wright0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -44.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Packers.

Half-point at risk

2.32%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.9%

Expected total

46.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.45
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.15