2013 · DIV

Final

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Andrew Luck

22·43

Patriots

New England

QB Tom Brady

Gillette Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 57°F · wind 18mph

Closing spread

NE -7.5

Total

51

Model margin

+3.5est.

NE perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Colts

Patriots

Win probability

  • Patriots
  • Colts

How each play moved the game.

Patriots winsColts wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Coltsedge mapPatriots
  • +0.047EPA / play+0.062
  • 44.6%Success rate46.7%
  • +0.108EPA / dropback+0.153
  • -0.071EPA / rush-0.078
  • 7.4%Explosive rate8.3%
  • -1.44CPOE-1.37
  • 37.8%Third-down rate37.9%
  • 59.0%Red-zone TD rate60.0%
  • 1.89Points / drive2.05
  • 1.2%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 18–10 since 1999

IND have won 2 straight. Meetings average 51.6 points. NE are 16-10-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W13IND @ NE25–24IND
2023 · W10IND @ NE10–6IND
2022 · W9IND @ NE3–26NE
2021 · W15NE @ IND17–27IND
2018 · W5IND @ NE24–38NE
2015 · W6NE @ IND34–27NE
2014 · playoffsIND @ NE7–45NE
2014 · W11NE @ IND42–20NE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultIND–NE
INDQ1 15:0038Turnover0–6
NEQ1 13:4512Touchdown0–7
INDQ1 13:4133Punt0–7
NEQ1 12:201074Touchdown0–14
INDQ1 7:17780Touchdown7–14
NEQ1 4:353-3Punt7–14
INDQ1 3:1632Punt7–14
NEQ1 2:221475Touchdown7–21
INDQ2 10:541062Field goal10–21
NEQ2 5:35624Safety12–21
INDQ2 2:18633Turnover12–21
NEQ2 1:1434Punt12–21
INDQ2 0:3712End of half12–21
NEQ3 15:0038Punt12–21
INDQ3 13:30760Field goal15–21
NEQ3 10:031071Touchdown15–29
INDQ3 6:18380Touchdown22–29
NEQ3 5:0137Punt22–29
INDQ3 3:403-6Punt22–29
NEQ3 2:0539Punt22–29
INDQ3 0:34512Punt22–35
NEQ4 13:08173Touchdown22–36
INDQ4 12:5510Turnover22–36
NEQ4 12:45518Touchdown22–43
INDQ4 11:1239Punt22–43
NEQ4 10:161158Punt22–43
INDQ4 2:341041Turnover22–43
NEQ4 0:3700End of half22–43

Box score

Individual performances

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Andrew Luck20/4133124

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Donald Brown17633.70
Andrew Luck155.00
Trent Richardson310.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
T.Y. Hilton461030
Coby Fleener611740
LaVon Brazill27732
Griff Whalen57670
Jack Doyle1270
Donald Brown1130
Da'Rick Rogers0400

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tom Brady13/2519800

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
LeGarrette Blount241666.94
Stevan Ridley14523.72
Shane Vereen5173.40
Tom Brady1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Julian Edelman69840
Danny Amendola35770
Shane Vereen26160
Austin Collie11150
Michael Hoomanawanui1160
Kenbrell Thompkins0300

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +7.53.8%6.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Colts.

Half-point at risk

2.13%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.4%

Expected total

44.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.52
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.48
  • Expected margin+3.49