Closing spread
NE -7.5
Total
51
Model margin
+3.5est.
NE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Patriots
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.047EPA / play+0.062
- 44.6%Success rate46.7%
- +0.108EPA / dropback+0.153
- -0.071EPA / rush-0.078
- 7.4%Explosive rate8.3%
- -1.44CPOE-1.37
- 37.8%Third-down rate37.9%
- 59.0%Red-zone TD rate60.0%
- 1.89Points / drive2.05
- 1.2%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 18–10 since 1999
IND have won 2 straight. Meetings average 51.6 points. NE are 16-10-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Luck | 20/41 | 331 | 2 | 4 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donald Brown | 17 | 63 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Andrew Luck | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Trent Richardson | 3 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Y. Hilton | 4 | 6 | 103 | 0 |
| Coby Fleener | 6 | 11 | 74 | 0 |
| LaVon Brazill | 2 | 7 | 73 | 2 |
| Griff Whalen | 5 | 7 | 67 | 0 |
| Jack Doyle | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Donald Brown | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Da'Rick Rogers | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 13/25 | 198 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeGarrette Blount | 24 | 166 | 6.9 | 4 |
| Stevan Ridley | 14 | 52 | 3.7 | 2 |
| Shane Vereen | 5 | 17 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julian Edelman | 6 | 9 | 84 | 0 |
| Danny Amendola | 3 | 5 | 77 | 0 |
| Shane Vereen | 2 | 6 | 16 | 0 |
| Austin Collie | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| Michael Hoomanawanui | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Kenbrell Thompkins | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
2.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.4%
Expected total
44.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.52
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.48
- Expected margin+3.49