2022 · Week 10 · Division
Final
Lincoln Financial Field · outdoors · grass · 43°F · wind 6mph
Closing spread
PHI -11
Total
43
Model margin
+2.9est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
1.4%est.
Win probability
- Eagles
- Commanders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.066EPA / play+0.100
- 40.9%Success rate47.9%
- -0.045EPA / dropback+0.121
- -0.092EPA / rush+0.072
- 8.0%Explosive rate11.3%
- -1.41CPOE+2.05
- 34.9%Third-down rate46.2%
- 61.4%Red-zone TD rate72.8%
- 1.48Points / drive2.43
- 2.0%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 35–21 since 1999
Meetings average 45.6 points. PHI are 27-26-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taylor Heinicke | 17/29 | 211 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Robinson | 26 | 86 | 3.3 | 1 |
| Antonio Gibson | 14 | 44 | 3.1 | 1 |
| Curtis Samuel | 4 | 12 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Taylor Heinicke | 5 | 10 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terry McLaurin | 8 | 11 | 128 | 0 |
| Curtis Samuel | 2 | 4 | 28 | 0 |
| Dyami Brown | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| Antonio Gibson | 3 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Jahan Dotson | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Logan Thomas | 2 | 4 | 12 | 0 |
| Cam Sims | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Hurts | 17/26 | 175 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miles Sanders | 12 | 54 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Jalen Hurts | 6 | 28 | 4.7 | 1 |
| Kenny Gainwell | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Boston Scott | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quez Watkins | 4 | 4 | 80 | 0 |
| DeVonta Smith | 6 | 8 | 39 | 1 |
| Dallas Goedert | 3 | 3 | 23 | 1 |
| Jack Stoll | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Zach Pascal | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| A.J. Brown | 1 | 4 | 7 | 0 |
| Kenny Gainwell | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Miles Sanders | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Commanders.
Half-point at risk
1.45%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.0%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.40
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-1.40
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin+2.94