2022 · Week 10 · Division
Final
Lincoln Financial Field · outdoors · grass · 43°F · wind 6mph
Closing spread
PHI -11
Total
43
Model margin
+2.9est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
1.4%est.
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Commanders
- OutCole HolcombLBFoot· DNP
- OutDavid MayoLBHamstring· DNP
- OutJ.D. McKissicRBNeck· DNP
- QuestionableAndrew NorwellGGroin· DNP
- QuestionableTyler LarsenCBack· Limited
Eagles
- OutAvonte MaddoxCBHamstring· DNP
- OutJosh JobeCBHamstring· DNP
- LimitedA.J. BrownWRNot injury related - resting player
- LimitedBrandon GrahamDENot injury related - resting player
- LimitedDarius SlayCBNot injury related - resting player
- LimitedFletcher CoxDTNot injury related - resting player
- LimitedIsaac SeumaloGNot injury related - resting player
- LimitedJames BradberryCBNot injury related - resting player
- LimitedJason KelceCNot injury related - resting player
- LimitedJosh SweatDENot injury related - resting player
- LimitedLandon DickersonGNot injury related - resting player
- LimitedLane JohnsonTNot injury related - resting player
- LimitedRobert QuinnDENot injury related - resting player
Win probability
- Eagles
- Commanders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.066EPA / play+0.100
- 40.9%Success rate47.9%
- -0.045EPA / dropback+0.121
- -0.092EPA / rush+0.072
- 8.0%Explosive rate11.3%
- -1.41CPOE+2.05
- 34.9%Third-down rate46.2%
- 61.4%Red-zone TD rate72.8%
- 1.48Points / drive2.43
- 2.0%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 35–21 since 1999
Meetings average 45.6 points. PHI are 27-26-3 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | WAS–PHI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WAS | Q1 15:00 | 4 | -5 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| PHI | Q1 13:12 | 3 | 18 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| WAS | Q1 12:21 | 13 | 75 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| PHI | Q1 5:00 | 11 | 58 | Touchdown | 7–14 |
| WAS | Q1 1:30 | 12 | 49 | Field goal | 10–14 |
| PHI | Q2 10:00 | 4 | 20 | Turnover | 10–14 |
| WAS | Q2 8:43 | 16 | 86 | Touchdown | 17–14 |
| PHI | Q2 1:39 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 17–14 |
| WAS | Q2 1:06 | 5 | 30 | Field goal | 20–14 |
| PHI | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 20–14 |
| WAS | Q3 13:36 | 13 | 71 | Field goal | 23–14 |
| PHI | Q3 5:13 | 12 | 80 | Touchdown | 23–21 |
| WAS | Q4 14:54 | 5 | 17 | Turnover | 23–21 |
| PHI | Q4 12:24 | 6 | 26 | Turnover | 23–21 |
| WAS | Q4 9:09 | 3 | -2 | Field goal | 26–21 |
| PHI | Q4 7:33 | 4 | 62 | Turnover | 26–21 |
| WAS | Q4 5:43 | 4 | 18 | Punt | 26–21 |
| PHI | Q4 3:26 | 3 | -3 | Punt | 26–21 |
| WAS | Q4 1:54 | 4 | -5 | Punt | 32–21 |
| PHI | Q4 0:05 | 1 | -9 | Opp touchdown | 32–21 |
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taylor Heinicke | 17/29 | 211 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Robinson | 26 | 86 | 3.3 | 1 |
| Antonio Gibson | 14 | 44 | 3.1 | 1 |
| Curtis Samuel | 4 | 12 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Taylor Heinicke | 5 | 10 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terry McLaurin | 8 | 11 | 128 | 0 |
| Curtis Samuel | 2 | 4 | 28 | 0 |
| Dyami Brown | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| Antonio Gibson | 3 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Jahan Dotson | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Logan Thomas | 2 | 4 | 12 | 0 |
| Cam Sims | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Hurts | 17/26 | 175 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miles Sanders | 12 | 54 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Jalen Hurts | 6 | 28 | 4.7 | 1 |
| Kenny Gainwell | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Boston Scott | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quez Watkins | 4 | 4 | 80 | 0 |
| DeVonta Smith | 6 | 8 | 39 | 1 |
| Dallas Goedert | 3 | 3 | 23 | 1 |
| Jack Stoll | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Zach Pascal | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| A.J. Brown | 1 | 4 | 7 | 0 |
| Kenny Gainwell | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Miles Sanders | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Commanders.
Half-point at risk
1.45%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.0%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.40
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-1.40
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin+2.94