2022 · Week 11 · Division

Final

49ers

San Francisco

QB Jimmy Garoppolo

38·10

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Colt McCoy

Azteca Stadium · outdoors

Closing spread

SF -10

Total

43.5

Model margin

-6.0est.

ARI perspective

Push chance

3.3%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

49ers

Cardinals

Win probability

  • Cardinals
  • 49ers

How each play moved the game.

Cardinals wins49ers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

49ersedge mapCardinals
  • +0.084EPA / play-0.081
  • 46.1%Success rate40.7%
  • +0.171EPA / dropback-0.079
  • -0.021EPA / rush-0.084
  • 10.7%Explosive rate6.3%
  • -1.99CPOE-1.70
  • 45.1%Third-down rate35.4%
  • 60.5%Red-zone TD rate59.7%
  • 2.20Points / drive1.60
  • 1.6%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SF lead 29–22 since 1999

SF have won 3 straight. Meetings average 45.3 points. ARI are 24-26-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W3ARI @ SF30–36SF
2025 · W11SF @ ARI41–22SF
2025 · W3ARI @ SF15–16SF
2024 · W18SF @ ARI24–47ARI
2024 · W5ARI @ SF24–23ARI
2023 · W15SF @ ARI45–29SF
2023 · W4ARI @ SF16–35SF
2022 · W18ARI @ SF13–38SF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSF–ARI
ARIQ1 15:0030Punt0–0
SFQ1 13:3232Punt0–0
ARIQ1 12:381058Field goal0–3
SFQ1 8:00417Punt0–3
ARIQ1 5:47619Punt0–3
SFQ1 2:41967Touchdown7–3
ARIQ2 13:35834Turnover7–3
SFQ2 9:37346Touchdown14–3
ARIQ2 8:42975Touchdown14–10
SFQ2 4:19954Field goal17–10
ARIQ2 0:433-1End of half17–10
SFQ3 15:00875Touchdown24–10
ARIQ3 10:34834Turnover on downs24–10
SFQ3 7:5247Punt24–10
ARIQ3 6:2430Punt24–10
SFQ3 4:25652Touchdown31–10
ARIQ3 0:28615Turnover on downs31–10
SFQ4 13:10550Touchdown38–10
ARIQ4 10:08528Punt38–10
SFQ4 7:5739Punt38–10
ARIQ4 5:321052Turnover38–10
SFQ4 2:07210End of half38–10

Box score

Individual performances

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jimmy Garoppolo20/2922840

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Elijah Mitchell9596.60
Christian McCaffrey7395.60
Deebo Samuel Sr.33712.31
Jordan Mason4143.50
Jimmy Garoppolo133.00
Brock Purdy331.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
George Kittle46842
Christian McCaffrey77670
Deebo Samuel Sr.79570
Brandon Aiyuk24202
Ray-Ray McCloud0100
Jauan Jennings0200

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Colt McCoy24/3421801
Trace McSorley6/105901

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
James Conner14423.01
Keaontay Ingram5193.80
Colt McCoy362.00
Trace McSorley166.00
Rondale Moore1-6-6.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Greg Dortch9101030
DeAndre Hopkins912910
A.J. Green59500
Trey McBride44140
James Conner25120
Maxx Williams1170
Stephen Anderson0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -103.1%3.3%5.0%3.2%7.4%6.2%

Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour 49ers.

Half-point at risk

3.33%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

33.4%

Expected total

43.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-5.45
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-2.24
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-5.98