Closing spread
SF -10
Total
43.5
Model margin
-6.0est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
3.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Cardinals
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.084EPA / play-0.081
- 46.1%Success rate40.7%
- +0.171EPA / dropback-0.079
- -0.021EPA / rush-0.084
- 10.7%Explosive rate6.3%
- -1.99CPOE-1.70
- 45.1%Third-down rate35.4%
- 60.5%Red-zone TD rate59.7%
- 2.20Points / drive1.60
- 1.6%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SF lead 28–22 since 1999
SF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.8 points. ARI are 23-26-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 20/29 | 228 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elijah Mitchell | 9 | 59 | 6.6 | 0 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 7 | 39 | 5.6 | 0 |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | 3 | 37 | 12.3 | 1 |
| Jordan Mason | 4 | 14 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Brock Purdy | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Kittle | 4 | 6 | 84 | 2 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 7 | 7 | 67 | 0 |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | 7 | 9 | 57 | 0 |
| Brandon Aiyuk | 2 | 4 | 20 | 2 |
| Ray-Ray McCloud | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jauan Jennings | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colt McCoy | 24/34 | 218 | 0 | 1 |
| Trace McSorley | 6/10 | 59 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Conner | 14 | 42 | 3.0 | 1 |
| Keaontay Ingram | 5 | 19 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Colt McCoy | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Trace McSorley | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Rondale Moore | 1 | -6 | -6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greg Dortch | 9 | 10 | 103 | 0 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 9 | 12 | 91 | 0 |
| A.J. Green | 5 | 9 | 50 | 0 |
| Trey McBride | 4 | 4 | 14 | 0 |
| James Conner | 2 | 5 | 12 | 0 |
| Maxx Williams | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Stephen Anderson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
3.33%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
33.4%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-5.45
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-2.24
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-5.98