2022 · Week 13 · Division

Final

Packers

Green Bay

QB Aaron Rodgers

28·19

Bears

Chicago

QB Justin Fields

Soldier Field · outdoors · grass · 38°F · wind 12mph

Closing spread

GB -4

Total

45

Model margin

-2.2est.

CHI perspective

Push chance

2.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Packers

Bears

Win probability

  • Bears
  • Packers

How each play moved the game.

Bears winsPackers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Packersedge mapBears
  • +0.017EPA / play-0.039
  • 46.2%Success rate41.1%
  • +0.035EPA / dropback-0.070
  • -0.009EPA / rush-0.004
  • 9.7%Explosive rate10.4%
  • +0.52CPOE-4.05
  • 39.3%Third-down rate41.0%
  • 57.7%Red-zone TD rate60.7%
  • 1.91Points / drive1.78
  • 1.9%Turnover rate2.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

GB lead 41–16 since 1999

Meetings average 42.7 points. CHI are 18-38-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5CHI @ GB7–31GB
2025 · playoffsGB @ CHI27–31CHI
2025 · W16GB @ CHI16–22CHI
2025 · W14CHI @ GB21–28GB
2024 · W18CHI @ GB24–22CHI
2024 · W11GB @ CHI20–19GB
2023 · W18CHI @ GB9–17GB
2023 · W1GB @ CHI38–20GB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultGB–CHI
CHIQ1 15:001053Field goal0–3
GBQ1 9:23614Punt0–3
CHIQ1 5:39570Touchdown0–10
GBQ1 3:001264Field goal3–10
CHIQ2 10:22435Turnover3–10
GBQ2 8:51524Turnover on downs3–10
CHIQ2 7:06263Touchdown3–16
GBQ2 6:091375Touchdown10–16
CHIQ2 0:1700End of half10–16
GBQ3 15:0039Punt10–16
CHIQ3 13:1636Punt10–16
GBQ3 10:51310Punt10–16
CHIQ3 9:511272Field goal10–19
GBQ3 1:50639Touchdown17–19
CHIQ4 14:41455Missed field goal17–19
GBQ4 11:401256Field goal20–19
CHIQ4 4:49526Turnover20–19
GBQ4 2:52368Touchdown28–19
CHIQ4 1:51630Turnover28–19
GBQ4 0:4400End of half28–19

Box score

Individual performances

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers18/3118210

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
AJ Dillon18935.21
Christian Watson14646.01
Aaron Jones9262.90
Patrick Taylor166.00
Aaron Rodgers341.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Allen Lazard56670
Christian Watson37481
AJ Dillon33260
Aaron Jones55240
Robert Tonyan12100
Samori Toure1170
Marcedes Lewis0100
Randall Cobb0400
Josiah Deguara0100

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Justin Fields20/2525402

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Justin Fields67111.81
David Montgomery14614.41
Darrynton Evans3217.00
Equanimeous St. Brown111.00
Velus Jones Jr.111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Equanimeous St. Brown34850
Cole Kmet67720
N'Keal Harry11490
Chase Claypool56280
Dante Pettis12140
David Montgomery4560

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -43.0%4.7%3.1%7.5%7.0%2.7%4.0%

Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Packers.

Half-point at risk

2.53%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

43.2%

Expected total

46.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.90
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-2.19