Closing spread
GB -4
Total
45
Model margin
-2.2est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bears
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.017EPA / play-0.039
- 46.2%Success rate41.1%
- +0.035EPA / dropback-0.070
- -0.009EPA / rush-0.004
- 9.7%Explosive rate10.4%
- +0.52CPOE-4.05
- 39.3%Third-down rate41.0%
- 57.7%Red-zone TD rate60.7%
- 1.91Points / drive1.78
- 1.9%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 40–16 since 1999
CHI have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.8 points. CHI are 18-37-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 18/31 | 182 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AJ Dillon | 18 | 93 | 5.2 | 1 |
| Christian Watson | 1 | 46 | 46.0 | 1 |
| Aaron Jones | 9 | 26 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Patrick Taylor | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Allen Lazard | 5 | 6 | 67 | 0 |
| Christian Watson | 3 | 7 | 48 | 1 |
| AJ Dillon | 3 | 3 | 26 | 0 |
| Aaron Jones | 5 | 5 | 24 | 0 |
| Robert Tonyan | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Samori Toure | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Marcedes Lewis | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Randall Cobb | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Josiah Deguara | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Fields | 20/25 | 254 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Fields | 6 | 71 | 11.8 | 1 |
| David Montgomery | 14 | 61 | 4.4 | 1 |
| Darrynton Evans | 3 | 21 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Equanimeous St. Brown | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Velus Jones Jr. | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Equanimeous St. Brown | 3 | 4 | 85 | 0 |
| Cole Kmet | 6 | 7 | 72 | 0 |
| N'Keal Harry | 1 | 1 | 49 | 0 |
| Chase Claypool | 5 | 6 | 28 | 0 |
| Dante Pettis | 1 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| David Montgomery | 4 | 5 | 6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
2.53%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
43.2%
Expected total
46.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.90
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-2.19