Closing spread
SEA -7
Total
41
Model margin
+2.0est.
LA perspective
Push chance
4.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Rams
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.013EPA / play-0.083
- 44.8%Success rate41.2%
- +0.060EPA / dropback-0.094
- -0.071EPA / rush-0.065
- 9.2%Explosive rate7.4%
- +5.46CPOE-2.69
- 37.4%Third-down rate40.2%
- 54.3%Red-zone TD rate60.5%
- 2.05Points / drive1.57
- 1.9%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 28–24 since 1999
SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.7 points. LA are 28-24 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geno Smith | 28/39 | 367 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeeJay Dallas | 10 | 37 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Kenneth Walker III | 3 | 36 | 12.0 | 0 |
| Tony Jones | 7 | 14 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Geno Smith | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Lockett | 9 | 12 | 128 | 1 |
| DK Metcalf | 8 | 8 | 127 | 1 |
| Noah Fant | 4 | 5 | 42 | 1 |
| Will Dissly | 2 | 2 | 22 | 0 |
| Tony Jones | 2 | 4 | 18 | 0 |
| Marquise Goodwin | 1 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Colby Parkinson | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Laquon Treadwell | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| DeeJay Dallas | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Kenneth Walker III | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Rams
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Wolford | 14/26 | 178 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Akers | 17 | 60 | 3.5 | 2 |
| Brandon Powell | 3 | 45 | 15.0 | 0 |
| John Wolford | 5 | 29 | 5.8 | 0 |
| Tutu Atwell | 4 | 23 | 5.8 | 0 |
| Kyren Williams | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Bryce Perkins | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tutu Atwell | 2 | 5 | 48 | 0 |
| Brandon Powell | 4 | 4 | 39 | 0 |
| Van Jefferson | 2 | 4 | 39 | 0 |
| Ben Skowronek | 2 | 3 | 30 | 0 |
| Tyler Higbee | 2 | 5 | 14 | 0 |
| Austin Trammell | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Cam Akers | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Kyren Williams | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
4.07%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.5%
Expected total
44.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.64
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+0.97
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.03