2022 · Week 13 · Division

Final

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Geno Smith

27·23

Rams

Los Angeles

QB John Wolford

SoFi Stadium · dome · matrixturf

Closing spread

SEA -7

Total

41

Model margin

+2.0est.

LA perspective

Push chance

4.1%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Seahawks

Rams

Win probability

  • Rams
  • Seahawks

How each play moved the game.

Rams winsSeahawks wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Seahawksedge mapRams
  • +0.013EPA / play-0.083
  • 44.8%Success rate41.2%
  • +0.060EPA / dropback-0.094
  • -0.071EPA / rush-0.065
  • 9.2%Explosive rate7.4%
  • +5.46CPOE-2.69
  • 37.4%Third-down rate40.2%
  • 54.3%Red-zone TD rate60.5%
  • 2.05Points / drive1.57
  • 1.9%Turnover rate2.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SEA lead 28–24 since 1999

SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.7 points. LA are 28-24 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · playoffsLA @ SEA27–31SEA
2025 · W16LA @ SEA37–38SEA
2025 · W11SEA @ LA19–21RAMS
2024 · W18SEA @ LA30–25SEA
2024 · W9LA @ SEA26–20RAMS
2023 · W11SEA @ LA16–17RAMS
2023 · W1LA @ SEA30–13RAMS
2022 · W18LA @ SEA16–19SEA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSEA–LA
LAQ1 15:001077Touchdown0–7
SEAQ1 9:30680Touchdown7–7
LAQ1 6:05653Field goal7–10
SEAQ1 2:3430Punt7–10
LAQ1 2:10520Punt7–10
SEAQ2 15:001191Touchdown14–10
LAQ2 9:481035Turnover14–10
SEAQ2 5:413-2Punt14–10
LAQ2 3:04622Field goal14–13
SEAQ2 0:553-2End of half14–13
SEAQ3 15:00435Turnover14–13
LAQ3 13:133-6Punt14–13
SEAQ3 11:22860Field goal17–13
LAQ3 7:3336Punt17–13
SEAQ3 5:49740Turnover17–13
LAQ3 1:46842Field goal17–16
SEAQ4 12:571067Field goal20–16
LAQ4 6:46975Touchdown20–23
SEAQ4 2:561170Touchdown27–23
LAQ4 0:364-5Turnover27–23
SEAQ4 0:1000End of half27–23

Box score

Individual performances

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Geno Smith28/3936731

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
DeeJay Dallas10373.70
Kenneth Walker III33612.00
Tony Jones7142.00
Geno Smith231.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tyler Lockett9121281
DK Metcalf881271
Noah Fant45421
Will Dissly22220
Tony Jones24180
Marquise Goodwin12170
Colby Parkinson11120
Laquon Treadwell1110
DeeJay Dallas0100
Kenneth Walker III0100

Rams

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
John Wolford14/2617802

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Cam Akers17603.52
Brandon Powell34515.00
John Wolford5295.80
Tutu Atwell4235.80
Kyren Williams393.00
Bryce Perkins155.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tutu Atwell25480
Brandon Powell44390
Van Jefferson24390
Ben Skowronek23300
Tyler Higbee25140
Austin Trammell1280
Cam Akers1100
Kyren Williams0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -74.1%2.7%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%

Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Seahawks.

Half-point at risk

4.07%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.5%

Expected total

44.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.64
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+0.97
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.03