2022 · Week 13 · Division

Final / OT

Commanders

Washington

QB Taylor Heinicke

20·20

Giants

New York

QB Daniel Jones

MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 40°F · wind 9mph

Closing spread

WAS -2.5

Total

40

Model margin

+0.3est.

NYG perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Commanders

Giants

Win probability

  • Giants
  • Commanders

How each play moved the game.

Giants winsCommanders wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Commandersedge mapGiants
  • -0.066EPA / play+0.033
  • 40.9%Success rate45.0%
  • -0.045EPA / dropback+0.058
  • -0.092EPA / rush-0.004
  • 8.0%Explosive rate7.9%
  • -1.41CPOE+1.68
  • 34.9%Third-down rate37.7%
  • 61.4%Red-zone TD rate71.3%
  • 1.48Points / drive2.02
  • 2.0%Turnover rate1.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NYG lead 32–21–2 since 1999

Meetings average 40.1 points. NYG are 29-24-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5NYG @ WAS27–27Tie
2025 · W15WAS @ NYG29–21WAS
2025 · W1NYG @ WAS6–21WAS
2024 · W9WAS @ NYG27–22WAS
2024 · W2NYG @ WAS18–21WAS
2023 · W11NYG @ WAS31–19NYG
2023 · W7WAS @ NYG7–14NYG
2022 · W15NYG @ WAS20–12NYG

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultWAS–NYG
NYGQ1 15:00422Turnover0–0
WASQ1 13:06945Field goal3–0
NYGQ1 8:393-5Punt3–0
WASQ1 6:31862Touchdown10–0
NYGQ1 2:27740Field goal10–3
WASQ2 13:3839Punt10–3
NYGQ2 11:27581Touchdown10–10
WASQ2 8:491246Field goal13–10
NYGQ2 2:281166Field goal13–13
WASQ2 0:0200End of half13–13
WASQ3 15:0030Turnover13–13
NYGQ3 14:11520Touchdown13–20
WASQ3 11:341153Punt13–20
NYGQ3 3:3439Punt13–20
WASQ3 1:181250Missed field goal13–20
NYGQ4 10:0644Punt13–20
WASQ4 7:4842Punt13–20
NYGQ4 6:22413Punt13–20
WASQ4 3:43890Touchdown20–20
NYGQ4 1:4530Punt20–20
WASQ4 1:17626Punt20–20
NYGQ4 0:1300End of half20–20
NYGOT49Punt20–20
WASOT524Punt20–20
NYGOT741Punt20–20
WASOT35Punt20–20
NYGOT317Missed field goal20–20

Box score

Individual performances

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Taylor Heinicke27/4127520

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Brian Robinson21964.60
Antonio Gibson9394.30
Curtis Samuel3237.70
Taylor Heinicke263.00
Jonathan Williams111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Terry McLaurin8121051
Curtis Samuel67630
Jahan Dotson59541
Logan Thomas34200
Antonio Gibson24200
Brian Robinson22150
Cam Sims12-20

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Daniel Jones25/3120010

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Daniel Jones12715.90
Saquon Barkley18633.51

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Darius Slayton68900
Isaiah Hodgins56441
Daniel Bellinger55240
Richie James33200
Saquon Barkley55180
Matt Breida1140

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -2.52.7%4.4%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.7%

Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Commanders.

Half-point at risk

2.11%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

49.9%

Expected total

43.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.23
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-1.40
  • Rest differential+0.24
  • Expected margin+0.32