2022 · Week 13 · Division
Final / OT
MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 40°F · wind 9mph
Closing spread
WAS -2.5
Total
40
Model margin
+0.3est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Giants
- Commanders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.066EPA / play+0.033
- 40.9%Success rate45.0%
- -0.045EPA / dropback+0.058
- -0.092EPA / rush-0.004
- 8.0%Explosive rate7.9%
- -1.41CPOE+1.68
- 34.9%Third-down rate37.7%
- 61.4%Red-zone TD rate71.3%
- 1.48Points / drive2.02
- 2.0%Turnover rate1.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NYG lead 32–21–1 since 1999
WAS have won 4 straight. Meetings average 39.8 points. NYG are 28-24-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taylor Heinicke | 27/41 | 275 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Robinson | 21 | 96 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Antonio Gibson | 9 | 39 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Curtis Samuel | 3 | 23 | 7.7 | 0 |
| Taylor Heinicke | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Jonathan Williams | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terry McLaurin | 8 | 12 | 105 | 1 |
| Curtis Samuel | 6 | 7 | 63 | 0 |
| Jahan Dotson | 5 | 9 | 54 | 1 |
| Logan Thomas | 3 | 4 | 20 | 0 |
| Antonio Gibson | 2 | 4 | 20 | 0 |
| Brian Robinson | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Cam Sims | 1 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Jones | 25/31 | 200 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Jones | 12 | 71 | 5.9 | 0 |
| Saquon Barkley | 18 | 63 | 3.5 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darius Slayton | 6 | 8 | 90 | 0 |
| Isaiah Hodgins | 5 | 6 | 44 | 1 |
| Daniel Bellinger | 5 | 5 | 24 | 0 |
| Richie James | 3 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Saquon Barkley | 5 | 5 | 18 | 0 |
| Matt Breida | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Commanders.
Half-point at risk
2.11%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.9%
Expected total
43.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.23
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-1.40
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin+0.32