Closing spread
KC -8.5
Total
44.5
Model margin
-2.1est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Broncos
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.179EPA / play-0.077
- 50.6%Success rate39.4%
- +0.273EPA / dropback-0.050
- -0.019EPA / rush-0.124
- 9.3%Explosive rate8.7%
- +3.02CPOE-1.65
- 49.4%Third-down rate29.1%
- 71.2%Red-zone TD rate61.5%
- 2.71Points / drive1.34
- 1.6%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 31–24 since 1999
Meetings average 43.8 points. DEN are 26-28-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 28/42 | 352 | 3 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isiah Pacheco | 13 | 70 | 5.4 | 0 |
| Jerick McKinnon | 6 | 22 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerick McKinnon | 7 | 9 | 112 | 2 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | 9 | 11 | 74 | 1 |
| Travis Kelce | 4 | 9 | 71 | 0 |
| Noah Gray | 3 | 3 | 45 | 0 |
| Isiah Pacheco | 3 | 3 | 23 | 0 |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 1 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Skyy Moore | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Justin Watson | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 23/36 | 247 | 3 | 1 |
| Brett Rypien | 4/8 | 16 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 4 | 57 | 14.3 | 0 |
| Latavius Murray | 8 | 32 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Marlon Mack | 3 | 15 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Mike Boone | 3 | 2 | 0.7 | 0 |
| Brett Rypien | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerry Jeudy | 8 | 9 | 73 | 3 |
| Marlon Mack | 2 | 3 | 62 | 1 |
| Greg Dulcich | 3 | 8 | 42 | 0 |
| Kendall Hinton | 5 | 6 | 38 | 0 |
| Mike Boone | 2 | 2 | 27 | 0 |
| Eric Tomlinson | 2 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Jalen Virgil | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Eric Saubert | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Brandon Johnson | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Latavius Murray | 3 | 5 | -1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
2.06%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
43.5%
Expected total
45.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.78
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-2.07