2022 · Week 17 · Division

Final

Broncos

Denver

QB Russell Wilson

24·27

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Patrick Mahomes

GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium · outdoors · grass · 47°F · wind 2mph

Closing spread

KC -13.5

Total

46

Model margin

+5.6est.

KC perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Broncos

Chiefs

Nothing filed.

Win probability

  • Chiefs
  • Broncos

How each play moved the game.

Chiefs winsBroncos wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Broncosedge mapChiefs
  • -0.077EPA / play+0.179
  • 39.4%Success rate50.6%
  • -0.050EPA / dropback+0.273
  • -0.124EPA / rush-0.019
  • 8.7%Explosive rate9.3%
  • -1.65CPOE+3.02
  • 29.1%Third-down rate49.4%
  • 61.5%Red-zone TD rate71.2%
  • 1.34Points / drive2.71
  • 1.9%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

KC lead 31–24 since 1999

Meetings average 43.8 points. KC are 28-26-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W1DEN @ KC10–31KC
2025 · W17DEN @ KC20–13DEN
2025 · W11KC @ DEN19–22DEN
2024 · W18KC @ DEN0–38DEN
2024 · W10DEN @ KC14–16KC
2023 · W8KC @ DEN9–24DEN
2023 · W6DEN @ KC8–19KC
2022 · W14KC @ DEN34–28KC

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDEN–KC
DENQ1 15:0035Punt0–0
KCQ1 13:171065Touchdown0–6
DENQ1 7:35516Punt0–6
KCQ1 5:24521Punt0–6
DENQ1 2:321444Field goal3–6
KCQ2 10:46765Turnover3–6
DENQ2 7:51621Punt9–6
DENQ2 4:45116Touchdown10–6
KCQ2 4:40980Touchdown10–13
DENQ2 1:02635Turnover10–13
KCQ2 0:11127Missed field goal10–13
KCQ3 15:0032Punt10–13
DENQ3 14:01529Punt10–13
KCQ3 11:1834Punt10–13
DENQ3 10:23659Touchdown17–13
KCQ3 6:3532Punt17–13
DENQ3 5:3449Punt17–13
KCQ3 2:56665Touchdown17–20
DENQ4 14:5010Turnover17–20
KCQ4 14:31417Touchdown17–27
DENQ4 12:361463Touchdown24–27
KCQ4 6:14516Punt24–27
DENQ4 3:53510Turnover on downs24–27
KCQ4 1:19311End of half24–27

Box score

Individual performances

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Russell Wilson26/3822211

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Latavius Murray12564.70
Chase Edmonds7344.90
Russell Wilson4276.82
Kendall Hinton100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Albert Okwuegbunam36451
Courtland Sutton46440
Chase Edmonds33390
Jerry Jeudy78380
Eric Saubert33300
Latavius Murray46160
Kendall Hinton0200

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Patrick Mahomes29/4232831

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Isiah Pacheco9313.41
Patrick Mahomes482.00
Jerick McKinnon242.00
Ronald Jones133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kadarius Toney44710
Jerick McKinnon56522
Travis Kelce710430
Skyy Moore34330
Marquez Valdes-Scantling27280
Justin Watson12270
JuJu Smith-Schuster23210
Isiah Pacheco22180
Blake Bell11171
Noah Gray11120
Patrick Mahomes1160

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +13.57.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.1%

Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Broncos.

Half-point at risk

3.08%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

63.8%

Expected total

45.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.78
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin+5.56