Closing spread
KC -13.5
Total
46
Model margin
+5.6est.
KC perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.077EPA / play+0.179
- 39.4%Success rate50.6%
- -0.050EPA / dropback+0.273
- -0.124EPA / rush-0.019
- 8.7%Explosive rate9.3%
- -1.65CPOE+3.02
- 29.1%Third-down rate49.4%
- 61.5%Red-zone TD rate71.2%
- 1.34Points / drive2.71
- 1.9%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 31–24 since 1999
Meetings average 43.8 points. KC are 28-26-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 26/38 | 222 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Latavius Murray | 12 | 56 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Chase Edmonds | 7 | 34 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Russell Wilson | 4 | 27 | 6.8 | 2 |
| Kendall Hinton | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Albert Okwuegbunam | 3 | 6 | 45 | 1 |
| Courtland Sutton | 4 | 6 | 44 | 0 |
| Chase Edmonds | 3 | 3 | 39 | 0 |
| Jerry Jeudy | 7 | 8 | 38 | 0 |
| Eric Saubert | 3 | 3 | 30 | 0 |
| Latavius Murray | 4 | 6 | 16 | 0 |
| Kendall Hinton | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 29/42 | 328 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isiah Pacheco | 9 | 31 | 3.4 | 1 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 4 | 8 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Jerick McKinnon | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Ronald Jones | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kadarius Toney | 4 | 4 | 71 | 0 |
| Jerick McKinnon | 5 | 6 | 52 | 2 |
| Travis Kelce | 7 | 10 | 43 | 0 |
| Skyy Moore | 3 | 4 | 33 | 0 |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 2 | 7 | 28 | 0 |
| Justin Watson | 1 | 2 | 27 | 0 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | 2 | 3 | 21 | 0 |
| Isiah Pacheco | 2 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Blake Bell | 1 | 1 | 17 | 1 |
| Noah Gray | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
3.08%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.8%
Expected total
45.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.78
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+5.56