Closing spread
PHI -7.5
Total
44.5
Model margin
-0.9est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Giants
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.100EPA / play+0.033
- 47.9%Success rate45.0%
- +0.121EPA / dropback+0.058
- +0.072EPA / rush-0.004
- 11.3%Explosive rate7.9%
- +2.05CPOE+1.68
- 46.2%Third-down rate37.7%
- 72.8%Red-zone TD rate71.3%
- 2.43Points / drive2.02
- 1.7%Turnover rate1.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 38–20 since 1999
Meetings average 43.1 points. NYG are 27-30-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Hurts | 21/31 | 217 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miles Sanders | 17 | 144 | 8.5 | 2 |
| Jalen Hurts | 7 | 77 | 11.0 | 1 |
| Boston Scott | 6 | 33 | 5.5 | 1 |
| Gardner Minshew | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Brown | 4 | 6 | 70 | 1 |
| DeVonta Smith | 5 | 8 | 64 | 1 |
| Grant Calcaterra | 2 | 4 | 24 | 0 |
| Jack Stoll | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| Quez Watkins | 4 | 5 | 19 | 0 |
| Miles Sanders | 1 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Zach Pascal | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Boston Scott | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Kenny Gainwell | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Jones | 18/27 | 169 | 1 | 0 |
| Tyrod Taylor | 5/5 | 47 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyrod Taylor | 2 | 40 | 20.0 | 0 |
| Saquon Barkley | 9 | 28 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Daniel Jones | 4 | 26 | 6.5 | 1 |
| Gary Brightwell | 5 | 23 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Matt Breida | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richie James | 7 | 9 | 61 | 1 |
| Darius Slayton | 2 | 3 | 42 | 0 |
| Isaiah Hodgins | 4 | 6 | 38 | 1 |
| Saquon Barkley | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| Daniel Bellinger | 3 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| Gary Brightwell | 2 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| Nick Vannett | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Matt Breida | 2 | 4 | 9 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
4.54%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
46.6%
Expected total
44.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.62
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.92