Closing spread
KC -1
Total
41.5
Model margin
+0.8est.
HOU perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Texans
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.012EPA / play-0.079
- 42.7%Success rate41.9%
- +0.084EPA / dropback-0.029
- -0.105EPA / rush-0.154
- 8.5%Explosive rate6.9%
- +2.15CPOE-3.29
- 38.7%Third-down rate36.9%
- 51.9%Red-zone TD rate42.0%
- 1.88Points / drive1.45
- 1.6%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 11–6 since 1999
Meetings average 48.6 points. HOU are 8-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Smith | 20/37 | 186 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charcandrick West | 6 | 61 | 10.2 | 0 |
| Spencer Ware | 10 | 57 | 5.7 | 0 |
| Alex Smith | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Tyreek Hill | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Maclin | 6 | 15 | 68 | 0 |
| Spencer Ware | 2 | 3 | 48 | 0 |
| Travis Kelce | 5 | 7 | 34 | 0 |
| Chris Conley | 2 | 4 | 15 | 0 |
| Albert Wilson | 2 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Tyreek Hill | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Charcandrick West | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Demetrius Harris | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Osweiler | 19/33 | 268 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Miller | 25 | 83 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Alfred Blue | 5 | 11 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Jonathan Grimes | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Braxton Miller | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
| Brock Osweiler | 2 | -3 | -1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeAndre Hopkins | 7 | 11 | 113 | 1 |
| Will Fuller | 4 | 7 | 104 | 0 |
| Stephen Anderson | 2 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Lamar Miller | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Jonathan Grimes | 1 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Ryan Griffin | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Braxton Miller | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| C.J. Fiedorowicz | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Jaelen Strong | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
2.14%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.2%
Expected total
42.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.93
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.81