2016 · Week 2

Final

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Alex Smith

12·19

Texans

Houston

QB Brock Osweiler

NRG Stadium · closed · fieldturf

Closing spread

KC -1

Total

41.5

Model margin

+0.8est.

HOU perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Chiefs

Texans

Win probability

  • Texans
  • Chiefs

How each play moved the game.

Texans winsChiefs wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Chiefsedge mapTexans
  • +0.012EPA / play-0.079
  • 42.7%Success rate41.9%
  • +0.084EPA / dropback-0.029
  • -0.105EPA / rush-0.154
  • 8.5%Explosive rate6.9%
  • +2.15CPOE-3.29
  • 38.7%Third-down rate36.9%
  • 51.9%Red-zone TD rate42.0%
  • 1.88Points / drive1.45
  • 1.6%Turnover rate1.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

KC lead 11–6 since 1999

Meetings average 48.6 points. HOU are 8-9 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W14HOU @ KC20–10HOU
2024 · playoffsHOU @ KC14–23KC
2024 · W16HOU @ KC19–27KC
2022 · W15KC @ HOU30–24KC
2020 · W1HOU @ KC20–34KC
2019 · playoffsHOU @ KC31–51KC
2019 · W6HOU @ KC31–24HOU
2017 · W5KC @ HOU42–34KC

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultKC–HOU
HOUQ1 15:00882Turnover0–0
KCQ1 10:44625Turnover0–6
HOUQ1 8:08127Touchdown0–7
KCQ1 8:0143Punt0–7
HOUQ1 6:12410Punt0–7
KCQ1 4:163-1Punt0–7
HOUQ1 3:143-5Punt0–7
KCQ1 1:123-2Field goal3–7
HOUQ2 14:5535Punt3–7
KCQ2 13:52629Punt3–7
KCQ2 11:0800Punt3–7
HOUQ2 10:59216Field goal3–7
HOUQ2 9:56521Field goal3–7
HOUQ2 7:09617Field goal3–10
KCQ2 4:16537Turnover3–10
HOUQ2 1:4038Field goal3–13
KCQ2 1:21636Turnover3–13
HOUQ2 0:1320Missed field goal3–13
KCQ3 15:0039Punt3–13
HOUQ3 12:45736Punt3–13
KCQ3 8:453-5Punt3–13
HOUQ3 6:543-4Punt3–13
KCQ3 5:2048Punt3–13
HOUQ3 3:43235Turnover3–13
KCQ3 2:46426Field goal6–13
HOUQ4 14:561047Field goal6–16
KCQ4 9:34752Field goal9–16
HOUQ4 7:341159Field goal9–19
KCQ4 2:561074Field goal12–19
HOUQ4 0:4900End of half12–19

Box score

Individual performances

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Alex Smith20/3718600

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Charcandrick West66110.20
Spencer Ware10575.70
Alex Smith221.00
Tyreek Hill1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jeremy Maclin615680
Spencer Ware23480
Travis Kelce57340
Chris Conley24150
Albert Wilson23110
Tyreek Hill2280
Charcandrick West1220
Demetrius Harris0100

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brock Osweiler19/3326812

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Lamar Miller25833.30
Alfred Blue5112.20
Jonathan Grimes188.00
Braxton Miller1-2-2.00
Brock Osweiler2-3-1.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DeAndre Hopkins7111131
Will Fuller471040
Stephen Anderson23150
Lamar Miller22140
Jonathan Grimes13130
Ryan Griffin1250
Braxton Miller1330
C.J. Fiedorowicz1110
Jaelen Strong0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -14.3%2.8%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Chiefs.

Half-point at risk

2.14%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

51.2%

Expected total

42.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.93
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.81