Closing spread
SF -3
Total
43
Model margin
-2.3est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Seahawks
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.084EPA / play+0.013
- 46.1%Success rate44.8%
- +0.171EPA / dropback+0.060
- -0.021EPA / rush-0.071
- 10.7%Explosive rate9.2%
- -1.99CPOE+5.46
- 45.1%Third-down rate37.4%
- 60.5%Red-zone TD rate54.3%
- 2.20Points / drive2.05
- 1.6%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 31–20 since 1999
SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.2 points. SEA are 29-21-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Purdy | 17/26 | 217 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey | 26 | 108 | 4.2 | 1 |
| Jordan Mason | 4 | 64 | 16.0 | 0 |
| Brock Purdy | 4 | -2 | -0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Kittle | 4 | 5 | 93 | 2 |
| Jauan Jennings | 3 | 5 | 31 | 0 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 6 | 8 | 30 | 0 |
| Tyler Kroft | 1 | 1 | 28 | 0 |
| Brandon Aiyuk | 2 | 4 | 19 | 0 |
| Ray-Ray McCloud | 1 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geno Smith | 31/44 | 238 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenneth Walker III | 12 | 47 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Geno Smith | 1 | 18 | 18.0 | 0 |
| Travis Homer | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Lockett | 7 | 9 | 68 | 0 |
| DK Metcalf | 7 | 9 | 55 | 0 |
| Noah Fant | 5 | 6 | 32 | 1 |
| Kenneth Walker III | 4 | 5 | 32 | 0 |
| Travis Homer | 4 | 4 | 25 | 0 |
| Will Dissly | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Marquise Goodwin | 2 | 5 | 10 | 0 |
| Penny Hart | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Colby Parkinson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
7.51%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
43.0%
Expected total
44.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.76
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-0.23
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-2.28