2022 · Week 15 · Division

Final

49ers

San Francisco

QB Brock Purdy

21·13

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Geno Smith

Lumen Field · outdoors · fieldturf

Closing spread

SF -3

Total

43

Model margin

-2.3est.

SEA perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

49ers

Seahawks

Win probability

  • Seahawks
  • 49ers

How each play moved the game.

Seahawks wins49ers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

49ersedge mapSeahawks
  • +0.084EPA / play+0.013
  • 46.1%Success rate44.8%
  • +0.171EPA / dropback+0.060
  • -0.021EPA / rush-0.071
  • 10.7%Explosive rate9.2%
  • -1.99CPOE+5.46
  • 45.1%Third-down rate37.4%
  • 60.5%Red-zone TD rate54.3%
  • 2.20Points / drive2.05
  • 1.6%Turnover rate1.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SEA lead 31–21 since 1999

Meetings average 42.6 points. SEA are 29-22-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5SF @ SEA32–29SF
2025 · playoffsSF @ SEA6–41SEA
2025 · W18SEA @ SF13–3SEA
2025 · W1SF @ SEA17–13SF
2024 · W11SEA @ SF20–17SEA
2024 · W6SF @ SEA36–24SF
2023 · W14SEA @ SF16–28SF
2023 · W12SF @ SEA31–13SF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSF–SEA
SEAQ1 15:0057Punt0–0
SFQ1 12:5439Punt0–0
SEAQ1 10:5733Punt0–0
SFQ1 9:13986Touchdown7–0
SEAQ1 3:493-8Punt7–0
SFQ1 2:17413Punt7–0
SEAQ2 14:5139Punt7–0
SFQ2 13:21633Punt7–0
SEAQ2 10:371167Field goal7–3
SFQ2 4:4776Punt7–3
SEAQ2 1:48422Turnover7–3
SFQ2 0:5626Touchdown14–3
SEAQ2 0:47416Punt14–3
SFQ2 0:0800End of half14–3
SFQ3 15:00259Touchdown21–3
SEAQ3 14:001138Field goal21–6
SFQ3 8:08932Punt21–6
SEAQ3 2:311052Punt21–6
SFQ4 13:06614Punt21–6
SEAQ4 10:3834Punt21–6
SFQ4 9:34753Missed field goal21–6
SEAQ4 5:00767Touchdown21–13
SFQ4 3:35673End of half21–13

Box score

Individual performances

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brock Purdy17/2621720

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Christian McCaffrey261084.21
Jordan Mason46416.00
Brock Purdy4-2-0.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
George Kittle45932
Jauan Jennings35310
Christian McCaffrey68300
Tyler Kroft11280
Brandon Aiyuk24190
Ray-Ray McCloud13160

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Geno Smith31/4423810

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kenneth Walker III12473.90
Geno Smith11818.00
Travis Homer155.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tyler Lockett79680
DK Metcalf79550
Noah Fant56321
Kenneth Walker III45320
Travis Homer44250
Will Dissly11130
Marquise Goodwin25100
Penny Hart1130
Colby Parkinson0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -33.0%4.7%3.1%7.5%7.0%2.7%4.0%

Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour 49ers.

Half-point at risk

7.51%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

43.0%

Expected total

44.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.76
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-0.23
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-2.28