Closing spread
NE -7.5
Total
54
Model margin
-0.3est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bengals
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.256EPA / play+0.024
- 53.7%Success rate46.0%
- +0.422EPA / dropback+0.100
- +0.001EPA / rush-0.091
- 8.7%Explosive rate7.9%
- +7.39CPOE+5.31
- 48.4%Third-down rate45.6%
- 73.2%Red-zone TD rate51.6%
- 3.13Points / drive1.86
- 1.2%Turnover rate2.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 10–3 since 1999
NE have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.8 points. CIN are 6-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 25/32 | 231 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sammy Morris | 21 | 117 | 5.6 | 1 |
| Wes Welker | 1 | 27 | 27.0 | 0 |
| Kevin Faulk | 3 | 22 | 7.3 | 0 |
| Kyle Eckel | 3 | 11 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Matt Cassel | 2 | -3 | -1.5 | 0 |
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Palmer | 21/35 | 234 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenny Watson | 13 | 55 | 4.2 | 0 |
| T.J. Houshmandzadeh | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
4.45%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.3%
Expected total
45.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.83
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.27