2022 · Week 18 · Division

Final

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Anthony Brown

16·27

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Joe Burrow

Paycor Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 38°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

CIN -11

Total

39

Model margin

+6.6est.

CIN perspective

Push chance

1.6%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Ravens

Bengals

Win probability

  • Bengals
  • Ravens

How each play moved the game.

Bengals winsRavens wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ravensedge mapBengals
  • +0.004EPA / play+0.081
  • 45.3%Success rate47.8%
  • -0.020EPA / dropback+0.153
  • +0.034EPA / rush-0.064
  • 10.1%Explosive rate7.4%
  • -1.40CPOE+2.74
  • 42.2%Third-down rate47.3%
  • 46.9%Red-zone TD rate72.1%
  • 1.87Points / drive2.27
  • 2.0%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 30–26 since 1999

Meetings average 43.1 points. CIN are 29-25-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7CIN @ BAL35–13CIN
2025 · W15BAL @ CIN24–0BAL
2025 · W13CIN @ BAL32–14CIN
2024 · W10CIN @ BAL34–35BAL
2024 · W5BAL @ CIN41–38BAL
2023 · W11CIN @ BAL20–34BAL
2023 · W2BAL @ CIN27–24BAL
2022 · playoffsBAL @ CIN17–24CIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBAL–CIN
BALQ1 15:00416Punt0–0
CINQ1 12:501663Field goal0–3
BALQ1 5:0110Turnover0–3
CINQ1 4:49848Touchdown0–10
BALQ1 1:1135Turnover0–10
CINQ2 14:55332Touchdown0–17
BALQ2 14:12957Turnover on downs0–17
CINQ2 8:52512Punt0–17
BALQ2 6:051266Touchdown7–17
CINQ2 1:57412Punt7–17
BALQ2 0:473-5Opp touchdown7–24
BALQ2 0:30624End of half7–24
CINQ3 15:0033Punt7–24
BALQ3 14:1135Punt7–24
CINQ3 12:232-5Turnover7–24
BALQ3 11:2631Field goal10–24
CINQ3 10:34865Field goal10–27
BALQ3 6:271042Field goal13–27
CINQ3 1:5939Punt13–27
BALQ3 0:57873Field goal16–27
CINQ4 12:173-3Punt16–27
BALQ4 10:393-1Punt16–27
CINQ4 9:2349Turnover on downs16–27
BALQ4 7:18514Turnover on downs16–27
CINQ4 5:5546Punt16–27
BALQ4 3:10147Turnover16–27
CINQ4 2:5636Punt16–27
BALQ4 1:07542End of half16–27

Box score

Individual performances

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Anthony Brown19/4428602

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kenyan Drake16603.81
Justice Hill7344.90
Gus Edwards4164.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Isaiah Likely8131030
Sammy Watkins24790
Charlie Kolar46490
Demarcus Robinson29240
Kenyan Drake25190
Tylan Wallace11120
Josh Oliver0100
James Proche0300

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Burrow25/4221510

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Joe Mixon11272.51
Samaje Perine6183.00
Joe Burrow3103.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Ja'Marr Chase813861
Tyler Boyd57510
Joe Mixon55410
Hayden Hurst45140
Trenton Irwin12120
Tee Higgins1770
Samaje Perine1140

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +116.0%7.3%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.2%

Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Ravens.

Half-point at risk

1.62%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

66.3%

Expected total

44.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.53
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+2.41
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+6.56