Closing spread
CIN -11
Total
39
Model margin
+6.6est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
1.6%est.
Win probability
- Bengals
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.004EPA / play+0.081
- 45.3%Success rate47.8%
- -0.020EPA / dropback+0.153
- +0.034EPA / rush-0.064
- 10.1%Explosive rate7.4%
- -1.40CPOE+2.74
- 42.2%Third-down rate47.3%
- 46.9%Red-zone TD rate72.1%
- 1.87Points / drive2.27
- 2.0%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 30–25 since 1999
Meetings average 43 points. CIN are 28-25-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Brown | 19/44 | 286 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenyan Drake | 16 | 60 | 3.8 | 1 |
| Justice Hill | 7 | 34 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Gus Edwards | 4 | 16 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isaiah Likely | 8 | 13 | 103 | 0 |
| Sammy Watkins | 2 | 4 | 79 | 0 |
| Charlie Kolar | 4 | 6 | 49 | 0 |
| Demarcus Robinson | 2 | 9 | 24 | 0 |
| Kenyan Drake | 2 | 5 | 19 | 0 |
| Tylan Wallace | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Josh Oliver | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| James Proche | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Burrow | 25/42 | 215 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Mixon | 11 | 27 | 2.5 | 1 |
| Samaje Perine | 6 | 18 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Joe Burrow | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ja'Marr Chase | 8 | 13 | 86 | 1 |
| Tyler Boyd | 5 | 7 | 51 | 0 |
| Joe Mixon | 5 | 5 | 41 | 0 |
| Hayden Hurst | 4 | 5 | 14 | 0 |
| Trenton Irwin | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Tee Higgins | 1 | 7 | 7 | 0 |
| Samaje Perine | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
1.62%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
66.3%
Expected total
44.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.53
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+2.41
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+6.56