2022 · WC · Division

Final

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Geno Smith

23·41

49ers

San Francisco

QB Brock Purdy

Levi's Stadium · outdoors · grass · 57°F · wind 11mph

Closing spread

SF -10

Total

42

Model margin

+5.7est.

SF perspective

Push chance

3.3%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Seahawks

49ers

Win probability

  • 49ers
  • Seahawks

How each play moved the game.

49ers winsSeahawks wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Seahawksedge map49ers
  • +0.013EPA / play+0.084
  • 44.8%Success rate46.1%
  • +0.060EPA / dropback+0.171
  • -0.071EPA / rush-0.021
  • 9.2%Explosive rate10.7%
  • +5.46CPOE-1.99
  • 37.4%Third-down rate45.1%
  • 54.3%Red-zone TD rate60.5%
  • 2.05Points / drive2.20
  • 1.9%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SEA lead 31–21 since 1999

Meetings average 42.6 points. SF are 22-29-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5SF @ SEA32–29SF
2025 · playoffsSF @ SEA6–41SEA
2025 · W18SEA @ SF13–3SEA
2025 · W1SF @ SEA17–13SF
2024 · W11SEA @ SF20–17SEA
2024 · W6SF @ SEA36–24SF
2023 · W14SEA @ SF16–28SF
2023 · W12SF @ SEA31–13SF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSEA–SF
SEAQ1 15:003-2Punt0–0
SFQ1 12:35648Field goal0–3
SEAQ1 10:1337Punt0–3
SFQ1 8:02585Touchdown0–10
SEAQ1 5:111478Touchdown7–10
SFQ2 13:14960Field goal7–13
SEAQ2 7:41571Touchdown14–13
SFQ2 5:0137Punt14–13
SEAQ2 3:35513Punt14–13
SFQ2 1:08749Field goal14–16
SEAQ2 0:1319Field goal17–16
SFQ3 15:001375Touchdown17–23
SEAQ3 7:151355Turnover17–23
SFQ3 2:25770Touchdown17–31
SEAQ4 14:02528Punt17–31
SFQ4 11:45276Touchdown17–38
SEAQ4 10:5110Turnover17–38
SFQ4 10:45924Field goal17–41
SEAQ4 4:561773Touchdown23–41
SFQ4 1:48212End of half23–41

Box score

Individual performances

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Geno Smith25/3525321

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kenneth Walker III15634.21
Geno Smith4287.00
DeeJay Dallas6132.20

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DK Metcalf10131362
Tyler Lockett68390
Cade Johnson33390
Colby Parkinson36140
Noah Fant12110
Dareke Young11110
Kenneth Walker III1130

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brock Purdy18/3033230

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Christian McCaffrey151197.90
Deebo Samuel Sr.33210.70
Brock Purdy4164.01
Jordan Mason2126.00
Elijah Mitchell920.20

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Deebo Samuel Sr.691331
Brandon Aiyuk35730
Jauan Jennings25410
George Kittle22370
Elijah Mitchell23251
Christian McCaffrey22171

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +106.3%7.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.1%

Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Seahawks.

Half-point at risk

3.31%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

64.1%

Expected total

44.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.76
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+0.23
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+5.69