Closing spread
SF -10
Total
42
Model margin
+5.7est.
SF perspective
Push chance
3.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- 49ers
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.013EPA / play+0.084
- 44.8%Success rate46.1%
- +0.060EPA / dropback+0.171
- -0.071EPA / rush-0.021
- 9.2%Explosive rate10.7%
- +5.46CPOE-1.99
- 37.4%Third-down rate45.1%
- 54.3%Red-zone TD rate60.5%
- 2.05Points / drive2.20
- 1.9%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 31–20 since 1999
SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.2 points. SF are 21-29-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geno Smith | 25/35 | 253 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenneth Walker III | 15 | 63 | 4.2 | 1 |
| Geno Smith | 4 | 28 | 7.0 | 0 |
| DeeJay Dallas | 6 | 13 | 2.2 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DK Metcalf | 10 | 13 | 136 | 2 |
| Tyler Lockett | 6 | 8 | 39 | 0 |
| Cade Johnson | 3 | 3 | 39 | 0 |
| Colby Parkinson | 3 | 6 | 14 | 0 |
| Noah Fant | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Dareke Young | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Kenneth Walker III | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Purdy | 18/30 | 332 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey | 15 | 119 | 7.9 | 0 |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | 3 | 32 | 10.7 | 0 |
| Brock Purdy | 4 | 16 | 4.0 | 1 |
| Jordan Mason | 2 | 12 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Elijah Mitchell | 9 | 2 | 0.2 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | 6 | 9 | 133 | 1 |
| Brandon Aiyuk | 3 | 5 | 73 | 0 |
| Jauan Jennings | 2 | 5 | 41 | 0 |
| George Kittle | 2 | 2 | 37 | 0 |
| Elijah Mitchell | 2 | 3 | 25 | 1 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 2 | 2 | 17 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
3.31%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
64.1%
Expected total
44.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.76
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+0.23
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.69