2022 · Week 3 · Division

Final

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Mitch Trubisky

17·29

Browns

Cleveland

QB Jacoby Brissett

FirstEnergy Stadium · outdoors · grass

Closing spread

CLE -4.5

Total

38

Model margin

+0.0est.

CLE perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Steelers

Browns

Win probability

  • Browns
  • Steelers

How each play moved the game.

Browns winsSteelers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Steelersedge mapBrowns
  • +0.012EPA / play+0.013
  • 45.1%Success rate44.1%
  • +0.016EPA / dropback+0.021
  • +0.006EPA / rush+0.002
  • 7.9%Explosive rate9.8%
  • +1.33CPOE+1.05
  • 43.5%Third-down rate39.0%
  • 55.1%Red-zone TD rate56.3%
  • 1.65Points / drive1.91
  • 1.5%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 42–14–1 since 1999

CLE have won 2 straight. Meetings average 39.1 points. CLE are 26-29-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W4PIT @ CLE24–27CLE
2025 · W17PIT @ CLE6–13CLE
2025 · W6CLE @ PIT9–23PIT
2024 · W14CLE @ PIT14–27PIT
2024 · W12PIT @ CLE19–24CLE
2023 · W11PIT @ CLE10–13CLE
2023 · W2CLE @ PIT22–26PIT
2022 · W18CLE @ PIT14–28PIT

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPIT–CLE
CLEQ1 15:00514Punt0–0
PITQ1 13:00418Punt0–0
CLEQ1 11:043-5Punt0–0
PITQ1 8:37416Missed field goal0–0
CLEQ1 5:55760Touchdown0–7
PITQ1 2:54775Touchdown7–7
CLEQ2 14:551279Touchdown7–13
PITQ2 8:581068Touchdown14–13
CLEQ2 3:50957Turnover on downs14–13
PITQ2 0:30520End of half14–13
PITQ3 15:001243Punt14–13
CLEQ3 9:331480Field goal14–16
PITQ3 2:3137Punt14–16
CLEQ3 1:041180Touchdown14–23
PITQ4 9:2930Punt14–23
CLEQ4 8:3259Punt14–23
PITQ4 5:2934Punt14–23
CLEQ4 4:183-7Punt14–23
PITQ4 3:13759Field goal17–23
CLEQ4 1:4839Punt17–29
PITQ4 0:091-2Opp touchdown17–29

Box score

Individual performances

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mitchell Trubisky20/3220700

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Najee Harris15563.71
Jaylen Warren4307.50
Chase Claypool11111.00
Mitchell Trubisky273.51

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Diontae Johnson811840
Pat Freiermuth24410
George Pickens37390
Chase Claypool36350
Najee Harris3350
Jaylen Warren1130

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jacoby Brissett21/3122020

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Nick Chubb231134.91
Kareem Hunt12473.90
Jacoby Brissett3113.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Amari Cooper7111011
David Njoku910891
Kareem Hunt34140
Donovan Peoples-Jones13100
David Bell1160
Nick Chubb0100
Miller Forristall0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +4.52.7%4.4%2.9%7.3%7.4%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Steelers.

Half-point at risk

1.85%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

49.1%

Expected total

44.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.08
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-0.59
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.03