Closing spread
CLE -4.5
Total
38
Model margin
+0.0est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Browns
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.012EPA / play+0.013
- 45.1%Success rate44.1%
- +0.016EPA / dropback+0.021
- +0.006EPA / rush+0.002
- 7.9%Explosive rate9.8%
- +1.33CPOE+1.05
- 43.5%Third-down rate39.0%
- 55.1%Red-zone TD rate56.3%
- 1.65Points / drive1.91
- 1.5%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 42–13–1 since 1999
Meetings average 38.9 points. CLE are 25-29-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mitchell Trubisky | 20/32 | 207 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Najee Harris | 15 | 56 | 3.7 | 1 |
| Jaylen Warren | 4 | 30 | 7.5 | 0 |
| Chase Claypool | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Mitchell Trubisky | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Diontae Johnson | 8 | 11 | 84 | 0 |
| Pat Freiermuth | 2 | 4 | 41 | 0 |
| George Pickens | 3 | 7 | 39 | 0 |
| Chase Claypool | 3 | 6 | 35 | 0 |
| Najee Harris | 3 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
| Jaylen Warren | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacoby Brissett | 21/31 | 220 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Chubb | 23 | 113 | 4.9 | 1 |
| Kareem Hunt | 12 | 47 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Jacoby Brissett | 3 | 11 | 3.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amari Cooper | 7 | 11 | 101 | 1 |
| David Njoku | 9 | 10 | 89 | 1 |
| Kareem Hunt | 3 | 4 | 14 | 0 |
| Donovan Peoples-Jones | 1 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| David Bell | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Nick Chubb | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Miller Forristall | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
1.85%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.1%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.08
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-0.59
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.03