Closing spread
PIT -1.5
Total
37
Model margin
+4.3est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Steelers
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.004EPA / play+0.012
- 45.3%Success rate45.1%
- -0.020EPA / dropback+0.016
- +0.034EPA / rush+0.006
- 10.1%Explosive rate7.9%
- -1.40CPOE+1.33
- 42.2%Third-down rate43.5%
- 46.9%Red-zone TD rate55.1%
- 1.87Points / drive1.65
- 2.0%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 33–26 since 1999
PIT have won 2 straight. Meetings average 39.4 points. PIT are 30-26-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Huntley | 8/12 | 88 | 0 | 0 |
| Anthony Brown | 3/5 | 16 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.K. Dobbins | 15 | 120 | 8.0 | 1 |
| Gus Edwards | 13 | 66 | 5.1 | 0 |
| Tyler Huntley | 9 | 31 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Patrick Ricard | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Kenyan Drake | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Anthony Brown | 3 | -5 | -1.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Demarcus Robinson | 5 | 6 | 52 | 0 |
| DeSean Jackson | 2 | 2 | 34 | 0 |
| Mark Andrews | 2 | 6 | 17 | 0 |
| Kenyan Drake | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Devin Duvernay | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mitchell Trubisky | 22/30 | 276 | 1 | 3 |
| Kenny Pickett | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Najee Harris | 12 | 33 | 2.8 | 1 |
| Kenny Pickett | 2 | 16 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Jaylen Warren | 3 | 11 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Benny Snell | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Steven Sims | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Diontae Johnson | 6 | 8 | 82 | 0 |
| George Pickens | 3 | 3 | 78 | 0 |
| Pat Freiermuth | 3 | 6 | 33 | 1 |
| Steven Sims | 4 | 4 | 30 | 0 |
| Najee Harris | 2 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Jaylen Warren | 2 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Gunner Olszewski | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Zach Gentry | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
2.11%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.6%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.73
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+0.88
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.31