2022 · Week 14 · Division

Final

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Tyler Huntley

16·14

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Kenny Pickett

Acrisure Stadium · outdoors · grass · 42°F · wind 12mph

Closing spread

PIT -1.5

Total

37

Model margin

+4.3est.

PIT perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Ravens

Steelers

Win probability

  • Steelers
  • Ravens

How each play moved the game.

Steelers winsRavens wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ravensedge mapSteelers
  • +0.004EPA / play+0.012
  • 45.3%Success rate45.1%
  • -0.020EPA / dropback+0.016
  • +0.034EPA / rush+0.006
  • 10.1%Explosive rate7.9%
  • -1.40CPOE+1.33
  • 42.2%Third-down rate43.5%
  • 46.9%Red-zone TD rate55.1%
  • 1.87Points / drive1.65
  • 2.0%Turnover rate1.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 33–26 since 1999

PIT have won 2 straight. Meetings average 39.4 points. PIT are 30-26-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W18BAL @ PIT24–26PIT
2025 · W14PIT @ BAL27–22PIT
2024 · playoffsPIT @ BAL14–28BAL
2024 · W16PIT @ BAL17–34BAL
2024 · W11BAL @ PIT16–18PIT
2023 · W18PIT @ BAL17–10PIT
2023 · W5BAL @ PIT10–17PIT
2022 · W17PIT @ BAL16–13PIT

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBAL–PIT
BALQ1 15:0039Punt0–0
PITQ1 13:31515Punt0–0
BALQ1 10:241051Field goal3–0
PITQ1 4:4636Punt3–0
BALQ1 3:16248Touchdown10–0
PITQ1 2:31658Touchdown10–7
BALQ1 0:13743Turnover on downs10–7
PITQ2 11:37937Turnover10–7
BALQ2 5:35949Field goal13–7
PITQ2 1:03552Turnover13–7
BALQ2 0:2100End of half13–7
PITQ3 15:00627Punt13–7
BALQ3 10:49634Punt13–7
PITQ3 7:18743Turnover13–7
BALQ3 3:03511Punt13–7
PITQ3 0:21831Missed field goal13–7
BALQ4 11:141257Field goal16–7
PITQ4 3:19660Touchdown16–14
BALQ4 2:30313End of half16–14

Box score

Individual performances

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tyler Huntley8/128800
Anthony Brown3/51600

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
J.K. Dobbins151208.01
Gus Edwards13665.10
Tyler Huntley9313.40
Patrick Ricard122.00
Kenyan Drake111.00
Anthony Brown3-5-1.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Demarcus Robinson56520
DeSean Jackson22340
Mark Andrews26170
Kenyan Drake2210
Devin Duvernay0100

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mitchell Trubisky22/3027613
Kenny Pickett0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Najee Harris12332.81
Kenny Pickett2168.00
Jaylen Warren3113.70
Benny Snell242.00
Steven Sims111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Diontae Johnson68820
George Pickens33780
Pat Freiermuth36331
Steven Sims44300
Najee Harris23170
Jaylen Warren23160
Gunner Olszewski1270
Zach Gentry0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +1.53.6%6.6%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Ravens.

Half-point at risk

2.11%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

60.6%

Expected total

44.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.73
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+0.88
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.31