2022 · Week 1 · Division

Final / OT

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Mitch Trubisky

23·20

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Joe Burrow

Paycor Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf

Closing spread

CIN -7.5

Total

44.5

Model margin

+1.9est.

CIN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Steelers

Nothing filed.

Bengals

Win probability

  • Bengals
  • Steelers

How each play moved the game.

Bengals winsSteelers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Steelersedge mapBengals
  • +0.012EPA / play+0.081
  • 45.1%Success rate47.8%
  • +0.016EPA / dropback+0.153
  • +0.006EPA / rush-0.064
  • 7.9%Explosive rate7.4%
  • +1.33CPOE+2.74
  • 43.5%Third-down rate47.3%
  • 55.1%Red-zone TD rate72.1%
  • 1.65Points / drive2.27
  • 1.5%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 41–16 since 1999

PIT have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.4 points. CIN are 18-38-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W3CIN @ PIT27–30PIT
2025 · W11CIN @ PIT12–34PIT
2025 · W7PIT @ CIN31–33CIN
2024 · W18CIN @ PIT19–17CIN
2024 · W13PIT @ CIN44–38PIT
2023 · W16CIN @ PIT11–34PIT
2023 · W12PIT @ CIN16–10PIT
2022 · W11CIN @ PIT37–30CIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPIT–CIN
PITQ1 15:0039Punt0–0
CINQ1 13:312-5Opp touchdown7–0
CINQ1 12:43934Field goal7–3
PITQ1 7:1735Punt7–3
CINQ1 5:4741Turnover7–3
PITQ1 4:22432Field goal10–3
CINQ1 2:25936Turnover10–3
PITQ2 13:08857Touchdown17–3
CINQ2 8:46632Turnover17–3
PITQ2 5:2436Punt17–3
CINQ2 4:01862Field goal17–6
PITQ2 0:1400End of half17–6
CINQ3 15:0038Punt17–6
PITQ3 12:5767Punt17–6
CINQ3 10:25946Touchdown17–14
PITQ3 4:41723Punt17–14
CINQ3 0:2136Punt17–14
PITQ4 13:21615Field goal20–14
CINQ4 11:13839Turnover20–14
PITQ4 8:16417Punt20–14
CINQ4 6:051362Turnover on downs20–14
PITQ4 1:5132Punt20–14
CINQ4 1:271149Touchdown20–20
PITQ4 0:0200End of half20–20
PITOT37Punt20–20
CINOT952Missed field goal20–20
PITOT543Missed field goal20–20
CINOT510Punt20–20
PITOT645Field goal23–20

Box score

Individual performances

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mitchell Trubisky21/3819410

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chase Claypool6366.00
Najee Harris10232.30
Mitchell Trubisky393.00
Jaylen Warren372.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Pat Freiermuth510750
Diontae Johnson712550
Zach Gentry22400
Chase Claypool46180
Najee Harris2231
George Pickens1330
Miles Boykin0100
Jaylen Warren0100

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Burrow33/5333824

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Joe Mixon27823.00
Joe Burrow6477.80
Samaje Perine144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Ja'Marr Chase10161291
Joe Mixon79630
Hayden Hurst58460
Tyler Boyd47331
Samaje Perine35330
Tee Higgins22270
Mike Thomas1550
Drew Sample1120

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +7.54.1%2.7%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%2.9%

Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Steelers.

Half-point at risk

2.05%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.2%

Expected total

44.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.80
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-0.59
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.92