Closing spread
CIN -7.5
Total
44.5
Model margin
+1.9est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bengals
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.012EPA / play+0.081
- 45.1%Success rate47.8%
- +0.016EPA / dropback+0.153
- +0.006EPA / rush-0.064
- 7.9%Explosive rate7.4%
- +1.33CPOE+2.74
- 43.5%Third-down rate47.3%
- 55.1%Red-zone TD rate72.1%
- 1.65Points / drive2.27
- 1.5%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 40–16 since 1999
Meetings average 42.1 points. CIN are 18-37-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mitchell Trubisky | 21/38 | 194 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chase Claypool | 6 | 36 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Najee Harris | 10 | 23 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Mitchell Trubisky | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Jaylen Warren | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pat Freiermuth | 5 | 10 | 75 | 0 |
| Diontae Johnson | 7 | 12 | 55 | 0 |
| Zach Gentry | 2 | 2 | 40 | 0 |
| Chase Claypool | 4 | 6 | 18 | 0 |
| Najee Harris | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 |
| George Pickens | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| Miles Boykin | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaylen Warren | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Burrow | 33/53 | 338 | 2 | 4 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Mixon | 27 | 82 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Joe Burrow | 6 | 47 | 7.8 | 0 |
| Samaje Perine | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ja'Marr Chase | 10 | 16 | 129 | 1 |
| Joe Mixon | 7 | 9 | 63 | 0 |
| Hayden Hurst | 5 | 8 | 46 | 0 |
| Tyler Boyd | 4 | 7 | 33 | 1 |
| Samaje Perine | 3 | 5 | 33 | 0 |
| Tee Higgins | 2 | 2 | 27 | 0 |
| Mike Thomas | 1 | 5 | 5 | 0 |
| Drew Sample | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
2.05%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.2%
Expected total
44.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.80
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-0.59
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.92