2025 · Week 1

Final

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Lamar Jackson

40·41

Bills

Buffalo

QB Josh Allen

New Era Field · outdoors · a_turf · 58°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

BAL -1.5

Total

50.5

Model margin

+3.2est.

BUF perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Ravens

Bills

Win probability

  • Bills
  • Ravens

How each play moved the game.

Bills winsRavens wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ravensedge mapBills
  • +0.037EPA / play+0.145
  • 44.6%Success rate48.8%
  • +0.036EPA / dropback+0.230
  • +0.038EPA / rush+0.039
  • 10.4%Explosive rate11.0%
  • +2.86CPOE+3.77
  • 41.4%Third-down rate46.0%
  • 57.3%Red-zone TD rate70.6%
  • 2.30Points / drive2.73
  • 2.2%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 7–7 since 1999

BUF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 41 points. BUF are 6-7-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · playoffsBAL @ BUF25–27BUF
2024 · W4BUF @ BAL10–35BAL
2022 · W4BUF @ BAL23–20BUF
2020 · playoffsBAL @ BUF3–17BUF
2019 · W14BAL @ BUF24–17BAL
2018 · W1BUF @ BAL3–47BAL
2016 · W1BUF @ BAL7–13BAL
2013 · W4BAL @ BUF20–23BUF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBAL–BUF
BUFQ1 15:00745Touchdown0–7
BALQ1 11:191235Field goal3–7
BUFQ1 3:3837Punt3–7
BALQ1 1:39685Touchdown10–7
BUFQ2 13:3534Punt10–7
BALQ2 12:03469Touchdown17–7
BUFQ2 9:471263Field goal17–10
BALQ2 2:50723Field goal20–10
BUFQ2 0:31248Field goal20–13
BALQ3 15:00465Touchdown27–13
BUFQ3 12:481033Touchdown27–19
BALQ3 7:4730Punt27–19
BUFQ3 6:14721Punt27–19
BALQ3 2:42368Touchdown34–19
BUFQ3 1:09884Touchdown34–25
BALQ4 12:51465Touchdown40–25
BUFQ4 11:42619Punt40–25
BALQ4 9:18311Punt40–25
BUFQ4 7:161172Touchdown40–32
BALQ4 3:5624Turnover40–32
BUFQ4 3:06430Touchdown40–38
BALQ4 1:5837Punt40–38
BUFQ4 1:26576Field goal40–41

Box score

Individual performances

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Lamar Jackson14/1920920

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Derrick Henry181699.42
Lamar Jackson67011.71
Zay Flowers284.00
Rasheen Ali155.00
Justice Hill2-14-7.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Zay Flowers791431
DeAndre Hopkins22351
Derrick Henry11130
Rashod Bateman24100
Mark Andrews1150
Justice Hill1230

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh Allen33/4639420

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
James Cook13443.41
Josh Allen14302.12
Ty Johnson22412.00
Elijah Moore188.00
Ray Davis122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Keon Coleman8111121
Khalil Shakir69640
Josh Palmer59610
James Cook55580
Dalton Kincaid44481
Jackson Hawes11290
Dawson Knox22200
Elijah Moore1130
Ty Johnson0200
Ray Davis11-10

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -1.53.8%6.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Ravens.

Half-point at risk

2.07%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.7%

Expected total

45.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.51
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.22