Closing spread
BAL -1.5
Total
50.5
Model margin
+3.2est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bills
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.037EPA / play+0.145
- 44.6%Success rate48.8%
- +0.036EPA / dropback+0.230
- +0.038EPA / rush+0.039
- 10.4%Explosive rate11.0%
- +2.86CPOE+3.77
- 41.4%Third-down rate46.0%
- 57.3%Red-zone TD rate70.6%
- 2.30Points / drive2.73
- 2.2%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 7–7 since 1999
BUF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 41 points. BUF are 6-7-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | 14/19 | 209 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Henry | 18 | 169 | 9.4 | 2 |
| Lamar Jackson | 6 | 70 | 11.7 | 1 |
| Zay Flowers | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Rasheen Ali | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Justice Hill | 2 | -14 | -7.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zay Flowers | 7 | 9 | 143 | 1 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 2 | 2 | 35 | 1 |
| Derrick Henry | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Rashod Bateman | 2 | 4 | 10 | 0 |
| Mark Andrews | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Justice Hill | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 33/46 | 394 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Cook | 13 | 44 | 3.4 | 1 |
| Josh Allen | 14 | 30 | 2.1 | 2 |
| Ty Johnson | 2 | 24 | 12.0 | 0 |
| Elijah Moore | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Ray Davis | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keon Coleman | 8 | 11 | 112 | 1 |
| Khalil Shakir | 6 | 9 | 64 | 0 |
| Josh Palmer | 5 | 9 | 61 | 0 |
| James Cook | 5 | 5 | 58 | 0 |
| Dalton Kincaid | 4 | 4 | 48 | 1 |
| Jackson Hawes | 1 | 1 | 29 | 0 |
| Dawson Knox | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| Elijah Moore | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Ty Johnson | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Ray Davis | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
2.07%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.7%
Expected total
45.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.51
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.22