Closing spread
BAL -2.5
Total
46.5
Model margin
+3.2est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Bills
- OutTaron JohnsonCBForearm· DNP
- OutTerrel BernardLBPectoral· Limited
- OutTylan GrableTGroin· DNP
Ravens
- OutJalyn Armour-DavisCBHamstring· DNP
- DoubtfulAndrew VorheesGAnkle· DNP
- DoubtfulMichael PierceDTShoulder· Full
- QuestionableTyler LinderbaumCKnee· Full
Win probability
- Ravens
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.186EPA / play+0.199
- 47.8%Success rate49.4%
- +0.298EPA / dropback+0.328
- +0.029EPA / rush+0.053
- 9.5%Explosive rate12.0%
- +0.64CPOE+4.67
- 45.6%Third-down rate47.9%
- 75.1%Red-zone TD rate76.9%
- 2.90Points / drive2.80
- 0.8%Turnover rate1.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 7–7 since 1999
BUF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 41 points. BAL are 7-6-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | BUF–BAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | Q1 15:00 | 7 | 20 | Punt | 0–6 |
| BAL | Q1 11:02 | 1 | 87 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| BUF | Q1 10:50 | 12 | 58 | Field goal | 3–7 |
| BAL | Q1 4:34 | 9 | 55 | Touchdown | 3–14 |
| BUF | Q2 14:55 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 3–14 |
| BAL | Q2 12:50 | 11 | 96 | Touchdown | 3–21 |
| BUF | Q2 7:34 | 3 | -5 | Punt | 3–21 |
| BAL | Q2 5:59 | 7 | 42 | Turnover | 3–21 |
| BUF | Q2 2:25 | 6 | 8 | Punt | 3–21 |
| BAL | Q2 0:42 | 1 | 1 | End of half | 3–21 |
| BAL | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 3–21 |
| BUF | Q3 13:53 | 4 | 60 | Touchdown | 10–21 |
| BAL | Q3 11:26 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 10–21 |
| BUF | Q3 8:55 | 6 | 33 | Turnover | 10–21 |
| BAL | Q3 6:20 | 6 | 59 | Touchdown | 10–28 |
| BUF | Q3 2:45 | 7 | 40 | Missed field goal | 10–28 |
| BAL | Q4 14:55 | 7 | 58 | Touchdown | 10–35 |
| BUF | Q4 11:23 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 10–35 |
| BAL | Q4 10:53 | 6 | 18 | Punt | 10–35 |
| BUF | Q4 7:17 | 3 | -2 | Punt | 10–35 |
| BAL | Q4 5:37 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 10–35 |
| BUF | Q4 3:18 | 5 | 15 | End of half | 10–35 |
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 16/29 | 180 | 0 | 0 |
| Mitchell Trubisky | 1/2 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Cook | 9 | 39 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Josh Allen | 5 | 21 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Ray Davis | 7 | 11 | 1.6 | 0 |
| Curtis Samuel | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Ty Johnson | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Khalil Shakir | 4 | 5 | 62 | 0 |
| Keon Coleman | 3 | 4 | 51 | 0 |
| Dalton Kincaid | 5 | 7 | 47 | 0 |
| James Cook | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Curtis Samuel | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Mack Hollins | 1 | 6 | 5 | 0 |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Dawson Knox | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | 13/18 | 156 | 2 | 0 |
| Josh Johnson | 1/1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Henry | 24 | 199 | 8.3 | 1 |
| Lamar Jackson | 6 | 54 | 9.0 | 1 |
| Justice Hill | 4 | 18 | 4.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justice Hill | 6 | 6 | 78 | 1 |
| Isaiah Likely | 1 | 2 | 26 | 0 |
| Rashod Bateman | 1 | 1 | 23 | 0 |
| Nelson Agholor | 2 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Derrick Henry | 3 | 3 | 10 | 1 |
| Zay Flowers | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Mark Andrews | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.5%
Expected total
45.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.37
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+3.16