Closing spread
BAL -2.5
Total
46.5
Model margin
+3.2est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Ravens
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.186EPA / play+0.199
- 47.8%Success rate49.4%
- +0.298EPA / dropback+0.328
- +0.029EPA / rush+0.053
- 9.5%Explosive rate12.0%
- +0.64CPOE+4.67
- 45.6%Third-down rate47.9%
- 75.1%Red-zone TD rate76.9%
- 2.90Points / drive2.80
- 0.8%Turnover rate1.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 7–7 since 1999
BUF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 41 points. BAL are 7-6-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 16/29 | 180 | 0 | 0 |
| Mitchell Trubisky | 1/2 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Cook | 9 | 39 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Josh Allen | 5 | 21 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Ray Davis | 7 | 11 | 1.6 | 0 |
| Curtis Samuel | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Ty Johnson | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Khalil Shakir | 4 | 5 | 62 | 0 |
| Keon Coleman | 3 | 4 | 51 | 0 |
| Dalton Kincaid | 5 | 7 | 47 | 0 |
| James Cook | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Curtis Samuel | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Mack Hollins | 1 | 6 | 5 | 0 |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Dawson Knox | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | 13/18 | 156 | 2 | 0 |
| Josh Johnson | 1/1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Henry | 24 | 199 | 8.3 | 1 |
| Lamar Jackson | 6 | 54 | 9.0 | 1 |
| Justice Hill | 4 | 18 | 4.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justice Hill | 6 | 6 | 78 | 1 |
| Isaiah Likely | 1 | 2 | 26 | 0 |
| Rashod Bateman | 1 | 1 | 23 | 0 |
| Nelson Agholor | 2 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Derrick Henry | 3 | 3 | 10 | 1 |
| Zay Flowers | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Mark Andrews | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.5%
Expected total
45.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.37
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+3.16