2020 · DIV

Final

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Lamar Jackson

3·17

Bills

Buffalo

QB Josh Allen

New Era Field · outdoors · astroturf · 34°F · wind 13mph

Closing spread

BUF -2.5

Total

50

Model margin

+1.1est.

BUF perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Ravens

Bills

Win probability

  • Bills
  • Ravens

How each play moved the game.

Bills winsRavens wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ravensedge mapBills
  • +0.109EPA / play+0.169
  • 45.2%Success rate50.4%
  • +0.125EPA / dropback+0.298
  • +0.093EPA / rush-0.081
  • 10.3%Explosive rate10.7%
  • -0.32CPOE+6.29
  • 49.8%Third-down rate49.9%
  • 71.9%Red-zone TD rate68.4%
  • 2.64Points / drive2.78
  • 1.8%Turnover rate1.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 7–7 since 1999

BUF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 41 points. BUF are 6-7-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W1BAL @ BUF40–41BUF
2024 · playoffsBAL @ BUF25–27BUF
2024 · W4BUF @ BAL10–35BAL
2022 · W4BUF @ BAL23–20BUF
2019 · W14BAL @ BUF24–17BAL
2018 · W1BUF @ BAL3–47BAL
2016 · W1BUF @ BAL7–13BAL
2013 · W4BAL @ BUF20–23BUF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBAL–BUF
BALQ1 15:001246Missed field goal0–0
BUFQ1 7:36417Punt0–0
BALQ1 6:1735Punt0–0
BUFQ1 4:44517Field goal0–3
BALQ1 2:5736Punt0–3
BUFQ1 0:32638Missed field goal0–3
BALQ2 13:16634Missed field goal0–3
BUFQ2 10:47511Punt0–3
BALQ2 8:17832Punt0–3
BUFQ2 3:07632Punt0–3
BALQ2 1:03657Field goal3–3
BUFQ2 0:0400End of half3–3
BUFQ3 15:001166Touchdown3–10
BALQ3 9:291566Opp touchdown3–17
BALQ3 0:41319Punt3–17
BUFQ4 14:14937Punt3–17
BALQ4 9:05719Turnover on downs3–17
BUFQ4 6:3633Missed field goal3–17
BALQ4 5:301256Turnover on downs3–17
BUFQ4 2:4134End of half3–17

Box score

Individual performances

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Lamar Jackson14/2416201
Tyler Huntley6/136000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Gus Edwards10424.20
J.K. Dobbins10424.20
Lamar Jackson9343.80
Tyler Huntley33210.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Marquise Brown47870
J.K. Dobbins35510
Mark Andrews411280
Willie Snead55250
Miles Boykin34200
Patrick Ricard11110
Dez Bryant0100
Justice Hill0100

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh Allen23/3720610

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Devin Singletary7253.60
T.J. Yeldon242.00
Josh Allen730.40

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Stefon Diggs8111061
John Brown811620
Dawson Knox22180
Devin Singletary33120
Isaiah McKenzie2280
Cole Beasley0200
Gabe Davis0400

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +2.54.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.8%

Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Ravens.

Half-point at risk

7.45%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.1%

Expected total

44.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.66
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin+1.13