Closing spread
BUF -2.5
Total
50
Model margin
+1.1est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bills
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.109EPA / play+0.169
- 45.2%Success rate50.4%
- +0.125EPA / dropback+0.298
- +0.093EPA / rush-0.081
- 10.3%Explosive rate10.7%
- -0.32CPOE+6.29
- 49.8%Third-down rate49.9%
- 71.9%Red-zone TD rate68.4%
- 2.64Points / drive2.78
- 1.8%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 7–7 since 1999
BUF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 41 points. BUF are 6-7-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | 14/24 | 162 | 0 | 1 |
| Tyler Huntley | 6/13 | 60 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gus Edwards | 10 | 42 | 4.2 | 0 |
| J.K. Dobbins | 10 | 42 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Lamar Jackson | 9 | 34 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Tyler Huntley | 3 | 32 | 10.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marquise Brown | 4 | 7 | 87 | 0 |
| J.K. Dobbins | 3 | 5 | 51 | 0 |
| Mark Andrews | 4 | 11 | 28 | 0 |
| Willie Snead | 5 | 5 | 25 | 0 |
| Miles Boykin | 3 | 4 | 20 | 0 |
| Patrick Ricard | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Dez Bryant | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Justice Hill | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 23/37 | 206 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devin Singletary | 7 | 25 | 3.6 | 0 |
| T.J. Yeldon | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Josh Allen | 7 | 3 | 0.4 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stefon Diggs | 8 | 11 | 106 | 1 |
| John Brown | 8 | 11 | 62 | 0 |
| Dawson Knox | 2 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Devin Singletary | 3 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Isaiah McKenzie | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Cole Beasley | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Gabe Davis | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
7.45%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.1%
Expected total
44.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.66
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+1.13