2022 · Week 4

Final

Bills

Buffalo

QB Josh Allen

23·20

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Lamar Jackson

M&T Bank Stadium · outdoors · grass

Closing spread

BUF -3

Total

50

Model margin

-1.4est.

BAL perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bills

Ravens

Win probability

  • Ravens
  • Bills

How each play moved the game.

Ravens winsBills wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Billsedge mapRavens
  • +0.111EPA / play+0.004
  • 49.0%Success rate45.3%
  • +0.203EPA / dropback-0.020
  • -0.064EPA / rush+0.034
  • 9.3%Explosive rate10.1%
  • +0.35CPOE-1.40
  • 51.1%Third-down rate42.2%
  • 61.8%Red-zone TD rate46.9%
  • 2.48Points / drive1.87
  • 2.5%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 7–7 since 1999

BUF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 41 points. BAL are 7-6-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W1BAL @ BUF40–41BUF
2024 · playoffsBAL @ BUF25–27BUF
2024 · W4BUF @ BAL10–35BAL
2020 · playoffsBAL @ BUF3–17BUF
2019 · W14BAL @ BUF24–17BAL
2018 · W1BUF @ BAL3–47BAL
2016 · W1BUF @ BAL7–13BAL
2013 · W4BAL @ BUF20–23BUF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBUF–BAL
BUFQ1 15:0031Turnover0–0
BALQ1 14:0824Touchdown0–7
BUFQ1 13:26732Field goal3–7
BALQ1 10:141581Touchdown3–14
BUFQ1 1:06314Turnover3–14
BALQ1 0:20522Field goal3–17
BUFQ2 12:5439Punt3–17
BALQ2 11:191153Field goal3–20
BUFQ2 3:3937Punt3–20
BALQ2 2:51410Punt3–20
BUFQ2 1:471176Touchdown10–20
BALQ2 0:0900End of half10–20
BALQ3 15:0030Punt10–20
BUFQ3 13:49951Field goal13–20
BALQ3 9:42518Punt13–20
BUFQ3 6:53980Touchdown20–20
BALQ3 3:26723Turnover20–20
BUFQ4 14:543-11Punt20–20
BALQ4 13:381786Turnover20–20
BUFQ4 4:091069Field goal23–20

Box score

Individual performances

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh Allen19/3621311

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Josh Allen11706.41
Devin Singletary11494.50
Zack Moss362.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Stefon Diggs46620
Devin Singletary45470
Dawson Knox36400
Khalil Shakir22230
Isaiah McKenzie46211
Gabe Davis13130
Jamison Crowder1470
Quintin Morris0100
James Cook0100

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Lamar Jackson20/2914412

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Lamar Jackson11736.60
Justice Hill8455.60
J.K. Dobbins13413.21
Patrick Ricard133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Devin Duvernay45510
J.K. Dobbins44221
Patrick Ricard33170
Rashod Bateman36170
Mark Andrews25150
Justice Hill22120
Demarcus Robinson23100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -32.9%4.6%3.0%7.5%7.2%2.8%4.2%

Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Bills.

Half-point at risk

7.47%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

45.3%

Expected total

44.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.11
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-1.41