Closing spread
BUF -3
Total
50
Model margin
-1.4est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Ravens
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.111EPA / play+0.004
- 49.0%Success rate45.3%
- +0.203EPA / dropback-0.020
- -0.064EPA / rush+0.034
- 9.3%Explosive rate10.1%
- +0.35CPOE-1.40
- 51.1%Third-down rate42.2%
- 61.8%Red-zone TD rate46.9%
- 2.48Points / drive1.87
- 2.5%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 7–7 since 1999
BUF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 41 points. BAL are 7-6-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 19/36 | 213 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 11 | 70 | 6.4 | 1 |
| Devin Singletary | 11 | 49 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Zack Moss | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stefon Diggs | 4 | 6 | 62 | 0 |
| Devin Singletary | 4 | 5 | 47 | 0 |
| Dawson Knox | 3 | 6 | 40 | 0 |
| Khalil Shakir | 2 | 2 | 23 | 0 |
| Isaiah McKenzie | 4 | 6 | 21 | 1 |
| Gabe Davis | 1 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Jamison Crowder | 1 | 4 | 7 | 0 |
| Quintin Morris | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| James Cook | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | 20/29 | 144 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | 11 | 73 | 6.6 | 0 |
| Justice Hill | 8 | 45 | 5.6 | 0 |
| J.K. Dobbins | 13 | 41 | 3.2 | 1 |
| Patrick Ricard | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devin Duvernay | 4 | 5 | 51 | 0 |
| J.K. Dobbins | 4 | 4 | 22 | 1 |
| Patrick Ricard | 3 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Rashod Bateman | 3 | 6 | 17 | 0 |
| Mark Andrews | 2 | 5 | 15 | 0 |
| Justice Hill | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Demarcus Robinson | 2 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
7.47%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
45.3%
Expected total
44.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.11
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.41