2016 · Week 1

Final

Bills

Buffalo

QB Tyrod Taylor

7·13

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Joe Flacco

M&T Bank Stadium · outdoors · grass · 84°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

BAL -3

Total

44.5

Model margin

+0.3est.

BAL perspective

Push chance

7.4%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bills

Ravens

Win probability

  • Ravens
  • Bills

How each play moved the game.

Ravens winsBills wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Billsedge mapRavens
  • +0.056EPA / play-0.060
  • 44.9%Success rate40.7%
  • +0.076EPA / dropback-0.041
  • +0.028EPA / rush-0.100
  • 10.0%Explosive rate7.1%
  • +0.94CPOE-0.41
  • 41.7%Third-down rate38.2%
  • 68.0%Red-zone TD rate53.9%
  • 2.08Points / drive1.63
  • 1.1%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 7–7 since 1999

BUF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 41 points. BAL are 7-6-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W1BAL @ BUF40–41BUF
2024 · playoffsBAL @ BUF25–27BUF
2024 · W4BUF @ BAL10–35BAL
2022 · W4BUF @ BAL23–20BUF
2020 · playoffsBAL @ BUF3–17BUF
2019 · W14BAL @ BUF24–17BAL
2018 · W1BUF @ BAL3–47BAL
2013 · W4BAL @ BUF20–23BUF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBUF–BAL
BALQ1 15:00520Punt0–0
BUFQ1 11:443-8Punt0–0
BALQ1 9:33525Turnover0–0
BUFQ1 7:0034Punt0–0
BALQ1 5:22969Field goal0–3
BUFQ1 0:35611Punt0–3
BALQ2 12:59690Touchdown0–10
BUFQ2 10:111385Touchdown7–10
BALQ2 3:02921End of half7–10
BUFQ3 15:001039Missed field goal7–10
BALQ3 8:3738Punt7–10
BUFQ3 7:32517Punt7–10
BALQ3 4:09819Turnover on downs7–10
BUFQ3 0:3639Punt7–10
BALQ4 14:123-8Punt7–10
BUFQ4 12:5136Punt7–10
BALQ4 11:381245Field goal7–13
BUFQ4 5:393-3Punt7–13
BALQ4 4:29522End of half7–13

Box score

Individual performances

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tyrod Taylor15/2211100

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
LeSean McCoy16583.61
Tyrod Taylor5112.20
Reggie Bush3-4-1.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Sammy Watkins46430
Charles Clay23400
Robert Woods45200
LeSean McCoy44120
Reggie Bush0100
Greg Salas0100
Nick O'Leary0100
Mike Gillislee11-40

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Flacco22/3325810

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Justin Forsett10414.10
Terrance West12322.70
Mike Wallace11111.00
Joe Flacco4-3-0.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mike Wallace36911
Dennis Pitta34390
Breshad Perriman12350
Steve Smith58190
Justin Forsett22150
Kamar Aiken22140
Chris Moore12130
Terrance West2260
Crockett Gillmore1150

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +32.7%4.4%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.7%

Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Bills.

Half-point at risk

7.39%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

50.0%

Expected total

44.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.40
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.34