Closing spread
BAL -3
Total
44.5
Model margin
+0.3est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
7.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Ravens
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.056EPA / play-0.060
- 44.9%Success rate40.7%
- +0.076EPA / dropback-0.041
- +0.028EPA / rush-0.100
- 10.0%Explosive rate7.1%
- +0.94CPOE-0.41
- 41.7%Third-down rate38.2%
- 68.0%Red-zone TD rate53.9%
- 2.08Points / drive1.63
- 1.1%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 7–7 since 1999
BUF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 41 points. BAL are 7-6-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyrod Taylor | 15/22 | 111 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeSean McCoy | 16 | 58 | 3.6 | 1 |
| Tyrod Taylor | 5 | 11 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Reggie Bush | 3 | -4 | -1.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sammy Watkins | 4 | 6 | 43 | 0 |
| Charles Clay | 2 | 3 | 40 | 0 |
| Robert Woods | 4 | 5 | 20 | 0 |
| LeSean McCoy | 4 | 4 | 12 | 0 |
| Reggie Bush | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Greg Salas | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Nick O'Leary | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Mike Gillislee | 1 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 22/33 | 258 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Forsett | 10 | 41 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Terrance West | 12 | 32 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Mike Wallace | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Joe Flacco | 4 | -3 | -0.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Wallace | 3 | 6 | 91 | 1 |
| Dennis Pitta | 3 | 4 | 39 | 0 |
| Breshad Perriman | 1 | 2 | 35 | 0 |
| Steve Smith | 5 | 8 | 19 | 0 |
| Justin Forsett | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Kamar Aiken | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Chris Moore | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Terrance West | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Crockett Gillmore | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
7.39%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.0%
Expected total
44.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.40
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.34