Closing spread
BAL -6.5
Total
44
Model margin
-1.7est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bills
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.203EPA / play-0.023
- 48.1%Success rate41.8%
- +0.322EPA / dropback+0.020
- +0.088EPA / rush-0.085
- 12.0%Explosive rate10.1%
- +3.13CPOE-2.62
- 48.0%Third-down rate35.9%
- 68.9%Red-zone TD rate58.3%
- 2.90Points / drive1.56
- 1.3%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 7–7 since 1999
BUF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 41 points. BUF are 6-7-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | 16/25 | 145 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Ingram | 15 | 50 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Lamar Jackson | 11 | 40 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Gus Edwards | 4 | 20 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Justice Hill | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hayden Hurst | 3 | 3 | 73 | 1 |
| Mark Ingram | 3 | 3 | 29 | 0 |
| Mark Andrews | 1 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Willie Snead | 3 | 4 | 13 | 1 |
| Nick Boyle | 2 | 3 | 10 | 1 |
| Seth Roberts | 1 | 4 | 8 | 0 |
| Marquise Brown | 3 | 3 | -2 | 0 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 17/39 | 146 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devin Singletary | 17 | 89 | 5.2 | 0 |
| Josh Allen | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Frank Gore | 4 | 6 | 1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dawson Knox | 1 | 4 | 37 | 0 |
| Cole Beasley | 4 | 7 | 29 | 1 |
| Devin Singletary | 6 | 8 | 29 | 0 |
| John Brown | 3 | 8 | 26 | 0 |
| Isaiah McKenzie | 3 | 5 | 25 | 0 |
| Tyler Kroft | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Robert Foster | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
3.05%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
44.5%
Expected total
42.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.69
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin-1.71